Book Reviews
A world in which the US is no longer No. 1
Journalist Fareed Zakaria writes of the rise of new global powers.
By Jonathan Rosenberg | June 13, 2008 edition
While the United States remains the world’s most powerful country – militarily and economically – its place on the international stage is changing. The wealthiest person on earth is Mexican, the tallest building is in Taipei (soon to be surpassed by one in Dubai), and the biggest factories are in China. India’s film industry, Bollywood, is now the world’s largest, producing more movies and selling more tickets than Hollywood. And when experts identify the multinational companies that will become leaders in the future, they point to firms in Latin America, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia.
The US has even surrendered its supremacy in shopping malls. Only one of the world’s Top 10 malls is in the United States. And who’d have guessed that an American shopaholic with an urge to visit the biggest mall on earth would have to fly to Beijing?
These developments illustrate the central point of Fareed Zakaria’s illuminating and timely new book The Post-American World. Over the past couple of decades, a global transformation has seen countless countries experience remarkable economic growth. While the US will remain an economic power, the days of American economic preeminence, which characterized the 20th century, are over. According to Zakaria, this points not to the decline of the US, but to “the rise of the rest.”
Zakaria writes that the global economic explosion is a consequence of political change (the fall of the Soviet state discredited central planning); the free movement of capital around the world (the daily flow of trillions of dollars lubricates the global economy); and the communications revolution (the Internet and cellphones have transformed business by driving down costs and increasing efficiency).
The rise of India and China
In presenting this story, Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International and an astute analyst of US foreign policy, looks closely at economic developments in China and India, and assesses how the spread of global wealth will affect the US.
With annual economic growth averaging 9 percent for the past 30 years, China has emerged as a global economic powerhouse. In 1978, the country made 200 air conditioners; in 2005, it made 48 million. It produces two-thirds of the world’s photocopiers, microwave ovens, and shoes, and now exports as much each day as it did in all of 1978.
The average income for a Chinese person has increased sevenfold during that time, allowing 400 million people to escape poverty. While the country faces enormous challenges (how, for example, will the government reconcile its policy of economic liberalization with its refusal to democratize the political system?), China will prove a formidable competitor for the United States and a key concern for US policymakers.
Zakaria’s discussion of India is particularly incisive. Born and raised there (he left to attend Yale University and later Harvard University), he details the changes washing over the country, which, like China, is developing at warp speed. While there are key differences between them (India is a democracy), India’s remarkable growth, like China’s, has drastically reduced poverty. More Indians have risen from poverty in the past 10 years than in the previous 50.
Though the Indian economy is far smaller than China’s, experts predict that by 2020, its gross domestic product will equal Britain’s. Driven by a high rate of personal consumption, India’s economy, based mainly on services and industry, is unlike any in the developing world. To be sure, hundreds of millions of Indians remain unspeakably poor, but Zakaria claims that the economic expansion can be felt everywhere, “even in the slums.” And US policymakers and business leaders will be glad to know that the Indians are overwhelmingly pro-American.
What role will America play?
Zakaria concludes with an assessment of America’s place in this new era. The US should not be alarmed, he writes, for it will not be an anti-American age. Indeed, the American political and economic model is admired across the globe.
America can maintain its considerable economic power, Zakaria argues. Immigration and American higher education will help the economy remain vibrant and innovative. And America’s existing strength in nanotechnology and biotechnology, two cutting-edge industries, will catalyze American economic growth well into the 21st century.
Nevertheless, the US confronts real challenges. Zakaria sees the American political system – captured by “money, special interests, a sensationalist media, and ideological attack groups” – as the country’s “core weakness.” It serves partisan battles, he writes, but solves no real problems.
Zakaria is also concerned that in recent years American leaders have seemed “clueless about the world.” While the Middle East is important, it is time to stop worrying mainly about the ancient conflict between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq. Instead, US policymakers should start thinking seriously about the 21st century. Forging constructive relationships with China, India, Russia, and Brazil will be essential, for it is there that the “future is being made.”
Jonathan Rosenberg teaches US history at Hunter College and the CUNY Graduate Center.
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Comments
2. ED Wojcicki-Fields | 06.13.08
Yes, maybe it’s time to let some “other” country lead the world with all the heartache and headache. The USA can use the rest!
3. Nancy Peck | 06.13.08
The USA has been a bully for way too many years, time to step back, regroup and find respect for other cultures, other peoples, other countries. This book is a fascinating read, and a good way to start thinking about what the future will be.
4. Roswell Beck, M.D. | 06.13.08
Wake up America! China has invested 6 billion dollars as of 2007 to convert solid coal to liquid petroleum. The conversion process (Fischer-Tropsch) of coal produces a barrel of liquid petroleum for $35. Liquid coal can be “cracked” into gasoline, diesel, plastics and other petroleum products. China plans to reduce its importation of foreign oil by 50% with liquid coal production. The U.S. Air Force is the Only U.S. entity using jet fuel derived from liquid coal.It has been approved to power B-52 bombers.
I guess the U.S. likes to import foreign crude oil at $120/barrel? The U.S has 25% of the world’s coal deposits. Coal deposits are under our feet. We are being outproduced and out educated. “We have met the enemy and it is us!”
5. Susan Kelly | 06.14.08
I am happy to hear that other countries are prospering and hope that that’s in part due to America’s aid and inspiration. I think we can choose to see this change as a threat to our way of life or a change that will benefit us as well as others.
6. alex macdonald | 06.14.08
as an SCOTSMAN looking at AMERICA from over here i see a friend that has let us down and become a bully that everyone dislikes .but” all is not lost because if you elect BARAC OBAMA then all will be forgiven ,after all what are friends for if not when they stray off the path of humanity i don`t believe that all AMERICANS are torturers and bullies to get its own way ,please come back into the fold and stop allowing ISRAEL to lead you down the path of destruction.yous in friendship ALEX MacDonald
7. S U Turkman | 06.14.08
May USA not have the tallest building, biggest Shopping Mall and biggest Movie Industry but USA has …
* the biggest Economy and next in line Japan’s Economy is just half of USA’s. Economy of all Euro Countries combined still doesn’t equal USA Economy.
* more imports & exports in volume and money than any other country on earth.
* the center of world’s trade & commernce in New York. New York is World’s center for all commodities even though some commodities are not exported out of USA. For Example, Sugar, precious and non previous metals.
* more Disneyworlds, Seaworlds, Six Flags etc than any other country on earth.
* more Commercial Airliners and passengers than any country on earth.
* the top busiest airports in the world.
* more Commercial airports than any other country in the world.
* more private airports than any other country in the world.
* more corporate Jets than any other country in the world.
* the biggest Aircraft and Aerospace industry in the world.
* the largest automobile industry of the world.
* more automobiles than any country on earth.
* more Pharmaceutical and Health Care Equipment Companies than any other country on earth.
* Movie Industry that earns money more than Indian Movie Industry.
* highest paid Movie and Sports stars than anywhere else in the world.
* more TV Channels and Radio Stations than any country on earth.
* one of the world’s highest Standard of Living.
* more large screen color TV’s than any other country on earth.
* more Refrigerators, Air-Conditioners, Washing Machines, Dish Washing Machines and all other gadgets than any other country in the world.
* more computers than any country on earth.
* more people on Internet than any country on earth.
* more Cell Phones than any country on earth.
* highest Per Capita Calorie consumption than any nation on eath showing USA’s propsperity.
* more Ph.Ds than any other country on earth.
* more Engineers and Scientists than any other country on earth.
* more Physicians & Surgeons than any other country on earth.
* more Nobel Prize Winners than any other country on earth.
* more Patents being registered than any other country on earth every year.
* highest emigration than any country on earth. Nobody wants to emigrate to Communist China or India, the fastest growing Economies.
Even if American Ingenuity completely dies out today, it would take more than a century for China and India to reach near our Standard of Living even if US Dollar crashes.
God bless America …!
8. Asim, M A | 06.17.08
Insightful but incomplete analysis because its focused on Economics.What about politics?
The US has finally lost the higher moral ground on the world stage by being the leader of the free world-the final stroke has come most definitely because of and during the exiting Bush administration.
The major flaw in the American political system is its vulnuerability to parochial pressure groups and lobbies especially the Jewish lobby because of its destructive influnce on the most volitaile region of the world,the Middle East,which needs even handedness and impartiality from the US.
Therfeore Mr.Zakaria’s suggestion that the US ought to switch its focus and attention to other emerging powers is faulty and misleading:while focus on these emerging powers is sound policy and common sense,the focus should be on the explosive Midddle East with the jewish state insisting on monopolizing nuclear power so it can both consolidate and expand its brutal military occupation of Palestine,parts of Syria and Lebanon as well as terrorize the whole region into a nuclear arm’s race-Iran is a case in point.
Even a promising presidential candidate such as Obama whose core message is CHANGE,is in total bondage to the israeli lobby,AIPAC, as his recent speech demonstraed:if Obama’s change means maintaining the status quo on US ME foreign policy including blind support for israel’s brutal occupation and policies which are clearly contrary to US national interests-then what change is Obama taking about??????
9. Charlotte Fairchild | 06.17.08
The US has more kudzu than China, so we would survive a drought or famine easier.
We have more women than China, and probably India of ratio of male to female.
What is our crime rate compared to these two places? How will they get a handle on corruption?
What does it take for the men in all these countries to become peaceful?
10. adrian Dunsford | 06.17.08
Sirs/Mesdames,
‘I love Mother England, But God Bless America” for years used to be the call from far flung parts of the now distinct British Empire!
We today bad mouth America, But let people in this trouble world not forget that without a nation like America being at the helm after the British leadershop slowly expired, we would without adoubt have been in a bid heap of trouble!
At the close of each day, I personally give my thanks to Almighty God first fie His protection and also for giving the world America to be there to call on in times of turbulence.
Think on this before one condems the United States of America.
Adrian Dunsford
11. Darrell | 10.26.08
If someone asked me to guess where the largest of anything was, I would always guess Beijing or another major city in China or India. Not a real surprise to hear China overcame Canada and the USA for the #1 Mall in the world.
If China focuses, then are destined to be the Most Powerful country barring the use of nuclear missiles. China has reminded me of a wise man who left for the mountains to get away from the world for 1000 years and finally decided to come down from their medidtation.
The only surprising thing, which shows their superiority, is that they have not decided to be as Germany and ruthlessly conquer all of Europe. They have the natural resources like the USA but I thought they would have used their man-power to go throug Russid and into Europe.
I think the world will be better once the USA crashes because the worlds economy needs to be destroyed to save our earth. Men and women need to go back to hunting and farming so the worldd resources and destroyed.
I am glad that the unemployment rate is going up. This good for Americans and the world. Learn how to hunt like real men and cook like real women!
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1. Katie O’Brien | 06.13.08
the sleeping giant wakes…..