The New Economy

Mariano Serrano, holding 'cash for clunkers' paperwork, looked over a new car at a California dealership earlier this month. Except for a boost in auto sales, Americans' personal spending was flat, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

(Nick Ut/AP)

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US personal income, spending disappoint

'Cash for clunkers' is the only bright spot in the Commerce Department report.

By Laurent Belsie  |  August 28, 2009 edition

Americans’ incomes were essentially flat last month and, except for the “cash for clunker” program, so was their spending, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

After falling 1.1 percent from May to June, personal income in July rose less than 0.1 percent, slightly less than economists had expected.

Personal spending rose 0.2 percent, marking the third monthly rise. But the uptick was all due to a subsidy-fueled jump in auto sales at the end of July. The federal “cash for clunkers” program guaranteed a high trade-in value for old gas guzzlers if people bought a new fuel-efficient car.

Taxes rose in July, which caused disposable income (personal income minus taxes) to fall slightly. Accounting for inflation, it fell 0.1 percent.

“The fiscal stimulus that boosted disposable incomes in the spring is now fading,” wrote Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics, in an analysis. “Excluding the fiscal stimulus, incomes have been trending lower for the last seven months.”

The new data is hardly encouraging for those expecting a recovery. If Americans don’t earn more, they’re not likely to spend more. If they don’t spend more, then the US economy will be attempting liftoff without its main rocket booster.

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Comments

1. Nikola | 08.28.09

I’ll tell you what would give MY personal income a freaking boost: not having to pay insane health insurance premiums.

2. Jon Adams | 08.28.09

Why is this news? Everybody already knows that the cost of living keeps going up, up, up and, yet, wages are back sliding. For a while, people compensated for this by borrowing on credit. Now, the credit party is over. Employers are allowed to flaunt labor laws by making employees “independent contractors” who are independent in name only. Small businesses are the worst offenders. Labor laws are rarely enforced with regard to small businesses. I am not an economist but it is pretty evident that the economy will not recover without wage growth and enforcement of labor laws.

3. robert | 08.29.09

Why not another stimulus ? Saaaaay, 3-4 trillion ; that should work until next spring. Saw a Republican the other day talking about how “our children will be left with a huge debt” … yatty yatty … made me LAUGH.

Helllloooo, it’s the Chinese children who will be left with a huge debt. Anyone who’s run a business knows, it’s not so bad to OWE money, it’s when you are OWED money and can’t collect that it’s a problem.

4. Joe | 08.29.09

Jon, why is this news? For the very reasons you list and others. Big business has done its job and done it well, exporting jobs, using “temp workers”, “independent contractors”, and importing cheap labor to knock Americans down and keep us down until we have to beg in the streets. Working with the GOP they attack unions, fight regulation and grab our tax dollars thru military spending, “job creation” scams and bail outs. Soon America will be nothing but a shell of its former self. What happens when the world’s biggest economy is dead? No worries, there is China and India! Huge markets were they can pollute, kill and corrupt without any unions, consumer protection and lawyers to deal with. Welcome to the Free Trade! Welcome to the One Corporate World!

5. Mr Pepper | 08.29.09

I have to agree with much of what Jon Adams wrote above, namely that the spending, saving, and borrowing habits of Americans needs a readjustment (in this case, by necessity as credit has dried up). That leaves incomes, which must rise but run the risk of be pared back, technically, by taxation, which may need to rise to contend with the growing deficits and to plow our way out of the fiscal stimulus measures, which were incredibly huge and extreme, and will have a lasting effect on the economy for many years to come. That is why I argue that a lot of the stimulus to sustainable growth must arise from outside the USA, and the batton of growth has to be taken up by Asia and Europe in particular. The dollar should ease in value over time, which will galvanize American exports, which can act as the perfect remedy and spur to growth which, in the long run, is the only way out of this mess and into increasing real incomes and prosperity.

6. Debt, Death and Taxes | 08.29.09

Jon Adams, I agree with your point that borrowing on credit to support a rising cost of living is obviously not the answer. Personal income will continue to be under pressure in the long run. But, increasing wages will only serve to increase costs even more. The problem is the cost of living in this country is too high.

It doesn’t make sense that goods identical in quality and otherwise cost 30-50% in places like China as they do here in the US. It doesn’t make sense that drugs in the US cost twice as much as the identical drug costs in Mexico, India and other countries. As wages are falling, it doesn’t make sense for our government to prop up prices through various subsidy programs by borrowing at the expense of our children.

Cash for clunkers? A ridiculous program that keeps the life support machine ticking along when the right thing to do is for the auto industry to make cars for cheaper. Cash for new washing machines etc? Home buying incentives? All absurd programs designed to prop up prices so banks that loaned money on stupid terms can get repaid and people who own homes or shares in washing machine manufacturers can avoid going bankrupt.

Forcing borrower and lenders to reckon with what they have done without the help of the taxpayer will cause prices to come down. It is true that in a deflationary environment, people who borrowed too much will suffer. But, let prices come down and Americans will start buying again when they can afford to do so. This is the only way to create a sustainable recovery. The alternative is to continue the bailouts and increase wages which just increase prices and force people to take on more debt just to live.

Vote NO for more stimulus and government spending designed to prop up prices. Otherwise, it seems the famous two certainties in life will soon become three: death, debt and taxes.

7. Douglas | 08.29.09

This huge news and this is the reason why…The US government can not sustain its self if we don’t have growth in its citizen income. Since 70 percent of the US GDP (gross domestic product) is consumption…people buying products and services. The question then, what happens to the US Government if the largest part of our economic shrinks. First you can see that it would have a effect on the amount of taxes the government would collect. Because of that the US becomes less credit worthy since it revenue stream would shrink too. This will likely have a huge effect if the US Government can continue to sell it bonds to investors. Let us say that the goverment can sell more bonds if incomes and tax incomes are shirking. What do you think the buyer of debt will say…if you say they will want a higher return due to the increase risk you are correct. If those interest rates go up so will rates for you and other consumers. What would effectively happen is that they could not control interest rates. That is right it will cost people more to buy a home a car and all other types of loans. This is a huge subject and I could write a book. However, the take away is that if this keeps up we will find the US will change in a way we don’t want to see.

8. James Corbin | 08.30.09

As long as legal and illegal immigrants are allowed to come here and depress Americans’ paychecks, don’t expect much of a rise in income. This is not to mention the American jobs that are shipped overseas ever year without ever a whimper from a compliant Congress and White House. The CEOs rule America and all they care about is more profit, regardless of the method. Manufacturing is an endangered species in America, but Washington pretends that the Emperor has on lovely clothing. Soon the economic charade we are playing will come crashing down around our ears. The laws of economics cannot be ignored forever, even by the United States.

9. Mary Dyer | 08.31.09

the decline in “consumerism” has already hit the state of Oregon that is unusually depoendeent on state and local revenue from taxable income, and among many states that have mandates to live within their current income from taxable income.

theya re now sstruggling with increases in everything from auto registration fees, to increases in state and local gasoline taxes, in tandem with decreases in gasoline sales

and hit a financial fire storm of whether to cut a fifth day of public school (redmond Or)to avoid teacher lay offs and increases in class sizes, or trying to run poarent fund drives to keep schools open (Powell Beutte)
have much larger class sizes, for keeping schools open five days a week.

Our main state revenue is based on taxable income, and taxable income is down so much, Oregonians are actually discussing sales taxes.

which in Oregon has been shot down nine consecutive times because retailers are highly dependent o Oregon being an essentially sales tax freeport for the adjacent heavily sales taxed states.

10. Disappointed | 08.31.09

I appreciate the above statements. Perhaps, someone can truly explain to me (not rationalize) why those who follow the rules, those who work…seem to fall behind. For example, I am a single mother (by choice I stepped away from abuse). I raised a child, worked, went to college. I paid off my student loan debt, and together with my daughter’s willingness to work paid for her college tuition - she is a graduate of ASU - no student debt! I live below my means, I work, and I help my child. But there was no bailout? I did not receive a bailout when I needed college tuition, or help with a mortgage payment. I am a U.S. citizen, I pay taxes and I work…and there is no government assitance. Nor would I turn to the government to ask for assistance - given financial accountability is the individual’s responsiblity. We are no longer an industrial society. Our economic theories are obsolete. They no longer provide a helpful tool for predicting future outcomes. Also, why is the government through the use of my taxes bailing out corporations again? I do not understand. The plight of the middle class is rather serious. And as a middle class working individual - Health Care costs are criminal.

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