The New Economy

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) of Georgia, looks on at left, as Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut gestures during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, to announce the extension of the home owner tax credit.

(Harry Hamburg/AP)

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Extending home-buyer credit: another clunker?

Congress wants to extend the $8,000 home-buyer credit. Critics say it's not that helpful and mostly benefits home sellers.

By Mark Trumbull  |  Staff writer/ October 29, 2009 edition

Congress is moving to extend a tax credit for home buyers, but the move is no cure-all for a troubled housing market.

Economists say the $8,000 credit for first-time buyers, enacted earlier this year, has exerted some upward pressure on home prices and revved up the pace of sales.

At best, however, it’s just part of the fix for housing.

On Wednesday, key members of the US Senate agreed to extend the existing tax credit for first-time home buyers and offer a smaller credit to repeat buyers who have owned homes for at least five years. The measure, backed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) of Nevada, would offer the credit through next April.

Leaders in the House of Representatives have also said they support extending the credit, which may cost about $10 billion.

Congress is moving at a time when the housing market has been showing tentative signs of stabilization, but also amid worries that demand for homes will cool when the current tax credit expires at the end of November.

Supporters say extending the credit will bolster demand and further stabilize home prices after a historic drop. But critics want to see the housing market find a genuine equilibrium, not one with prices propped up by taxpayers.

“Home sales have picked up this year. Why? … The biggest stimulus to home sales this year has been the drop in the prices of these homes,” argues economist Paul Kasriel in a written report for the financial firm Northern Trust Co. in Chicago.

He sees the tax credit as “gimmicky” compared with the role that affordable prices have played in reviving buyer demand. In addition to home prices, key factors affecting real estate will be mortgage interest rates and the health of the job market.

Similarly, finance experts Simon Johnson and James Kwak argued this week in the Washington Post that the credit’s main impact is to push up home prices by about $8,000 – something of dubious economic benefit to anyone but the home seller in their view.

Economists generally agree the tax credit is not the biggest reason for some recent stabilization in the housing market. But backers of the credit say it has stimulated a significant amount of demand at a bad time. Early this year, many potential buyers and sellers felt as if there was no bottom in sight for home prices. Many were waiting to see how low prices would go.

Now, even some housing experts who supported the original tax credit in February say it can be allowed to expire without damaging the market. Others, including the real estate industry, want to see it extended to buoy a nascent recovery.

Supporters have the legislative momentum, despite public concerns about the rising cost of government stimulus programs.

An estimated 40 percent of homes sold this year have gone to first-time buyers, Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass., told a congressional panel this month. But 10 percent of all sales have gone to first-time buyers who would not have bought without the tax credit.

“The main effect of the tax credit is to shift demand from 2010 into 2009,” Mr. Newport said. “Once the tax credit expires, demand will take a hit…. Our view is that home prices will drop another 5 percent from current levels, hitting bottom in 2010.”

He took no position on whether the tax credit should be extended or not.

Mr. Johnson and Mr. Kwak hold that the tax credit is essentially a subsidy for people selling homes. It lets people pay about $8,000 more for something they want to buy anyway. That $8,000 represents about 5 percent price boost for the median home in America right now.

“Housing is something that all people need,” they write. “Why do we want it to be expensive?”

Of course, homes are also a source of wealth for homeowners, and collateral that banks rely on if they have to foreclose on a mortgage loan. By helping to push up home prices, the tax credit is arguably propping up confidence in the wider economy.

The debate over tax credits echoes another federal stimulus program that was also extended temporarily, the “cash for clunkers” incentive for car buyers. A report this week finds that program has similar shortcomings as the housing credit.

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Comments

1. Andrew | 10.30.09

Here’s a great question for an enterprising reporter: How much of the total 2009 credit went to foreclosures, helping to clear them off the banks’ balance sheets? In other words, given that this has helped sellers more than buyers, how many of the credit’s beneficiaries were actually banks?

Answer that, and put it on the front page, and you can kiss the FTHB credit redux goodbye.

2. Cliff | 10.30.09

This is another example of Congress and the Administration lying to the public. The credit is a no interest loan. The following is a direct quote from the 1040 instruction for 2008 taxes. “The credit operates much like an interest-free loan. You generally must repay it over a 15 year period. Ref. Form 5405.”(p61)
The Monitor should be the source for truth and should publish details of these taxpayer ripoffs.

3. Erik | 11.02.09

You’re right Cliff,
The “Credit” in 2008 was a loan.
In 2009, the “Credit” is a credit.

4. AZROB | 11.02.09

cliff:

You are reading from the previous credit from last year, which was a 7500 loan. It is really amazing you felt the need to post about a subject you clearly haven’t read a darn thing about in 9 months…make friends with google, read some news, ignorance is cureable, but stupidity isn’t you decide which you have.

5. Chase | 11.02.09

Your referring to the 2008 tax credit which was a 7500 0 percent interest loan. The 2009 tax credit is an actual credit that requires no payback. And it is 10% of the purchase price up to $8000.00

6. Next Sucker by Repo4sale | 11.02.09

Ok, the Suckers from 2001 to 2007 are not buyers, so the $8000 1st time buyers credit is for the next wave of SUCKERS. 2009 to 2010. Every home owner must join the Sucker Foreclosure Graduate Class, before they become “smart investors”.

7. Numbers | 11.02.09

2008 had an interest free loan of $7500. 2009 has 8k credit. So the deals are getting better and better. 2010 will have even a better deal. So why buy now? If nothing comes our way the home prices will go down at least 5%. That’s a better deal too!

8. Craig | 11.02.09

Cliff,
You are correct. The Monitor is also correct.
What you are quoting is the plan for home ownership that happened before the current credit. That one was a loan, and is what is seen for the 2008 Tax Year (April 2009 Tax Season). The current program is a Tax Credit.
I hope this helps clear up the air a bit.

9. Victor R | 11.02.09

Dissolve the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That would be a good start. That would be one less useless greedy self-interest organization. Next, Cancel the Tax credit and all government intervention into the housing market.

The only way to stabilize house prices is by letting them become affordable again. Let interest go up so housing prices get down. Monthly payment would be the same, but buyers could pay off their home much sooner with few extra payments every year.

Low interest rates + Tax Credits = Higher House Prices = Inflate Bubble = Huge personal debt = Slavery!… Land of the free?

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