Weather satellite image of Tropical Storm Faye over Florida on Aug. 20, 2008. (AFP/NOAA)
Newly built dream homes and harm’s way
By Peter N. Spotts | 08.22.08
Tropical Storm Faye and the Home and Garden channel may seem like strange bedfellows. But watching Faye hit the Florida Keys, drench the heart of the state, swing briefly out over the state’s northeast coast, then hang a hard left and head west toward the Florida Panhandle, I’m reminded of the cable network’s Dream Home 2008 grand prize. It speaks volumes about the challenges society faces if it hopes to reduce its vulnerability to natural hazards.
One February weekend, I walked by the television as HGTV made a pitch for its Dream Home 2008 sweepstakes. The dream spot? Islamorada, Fla. It’s about halfway down the chain of coral islets that end in Key West. The prize was a tidy two-story house that faces the ocean — with landscaping that just dares a hurricane storm surge to come roaring up to the patio. (We’ll save a discussion on the value of mangroves as marine surge protectors for another day.)
Ironically, several days later, I came across a fresh study by Roger Pielke Jr. and colleagues on hurricane damage in the United States. It appeared in the February issue of Natural Hazards Review — a publication not for the faint of heart. Dr. Pielke’s been looking at this issue at least since 1998. His data-driven theme has been pretty consistent: To date, rising trends in damage costs from hurricanes and tropical storms hitting the US have far more to do with population growth along storm-prone coasts than with any trends in the number, strength, or duration of the storms themselves. In other words: The problem is where we’re building homes, not a change in climate. Pielke’s latest study extends his roster of storms, beginning in 1900, to include the 2005 season and its infamous Hurricane Katrina.
Leafing through the study, I noted that economic losses for each hurricane season since 1900 (in 2005 dollars) appear as mere blips through the mid-1950s. They inch up a bit and hold relatively steady, then explode between 1990 and 2005. But is that due to rising population and wealth, or some climate-related trend? So Roger’s group asked: What would the damage costs look like if we superimposed today’s levels of wealth and development on yesterday’s storms? That changed the damage picture quite a bit. The 2005 season, as disastrous as it was, takes a back seat to 1926, when a powerful hurricane hit Miami. Adjusted for today’s economic and population conditions, the ‘26 storm would have cost the country $157 billion compared with $81 billion for Katrina.
The team’s bottom line after 14 pages, lots of graphics, and a couple of equations: The dollar value of losses are doubling every 10 years. Unless something is done to curb population growth and the rising concentration of big-bucks homes, condos, and office buildings along the coasts, losses could top $500 billion by 2020 just from growth alone. And might we be experiencing bigger storms by then, given climate change? And that’s just in the US.
Kerry Emanuel, who studies tropical cyclones at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, calls trends in the US “our lemming-like march to the sea.” He and a short list of other top experts take a dim view of state and federal insurance and disaster policies that have a well-meaning purpose, but in the end subsidize what they see as unwise behavior. They issued a statement in July 2006 that neatly sums up their view.
Which brings me back to Dream House 2008. To be sure, few places on Earth are without their natural hazards. It’s the price we pay for living on a geologically active planet. And based on the description of the house, it’s stoutly built. But if you have to sink pillars seven feet into the ground to make sure the house doesn’t blow or wash away, and install an emergency generator, perhaps you’re putting down roots in an undoubtedly beautiful — but wrong — spot.
Note: Eoin O’Carroll is on vacation. He will return Sept. 2
<< Study: Climate change to produce extreme rains | MainComments
2. jake38 | 08.23.08
What is not talked about much is how to properly evacuate millions of future residents living along the Florida coastline in the case of another Carla and an impeding land strike.
3. Mike Higgins | 08.23.08
Thank you, Peter, for bringing a touch of sanity to this blog with this article. It has been sorely lacking in the past.
4. Nikolai | 08.25.08
Matthew 7:24-27 really says it all (and it sounds better than anything I could come up with!):
Therefore whosoever heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them, I will liken him unto a wise man, which built his house upon a rock:
And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell not: for it was founded upon a rock.
And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not, shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand:
And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell: and great was the fall of it.
Michelle — I’m from NY. I don’t know what city you’re talking about (paranoid much?), but you can keep your “sun kisses” as long as you aren’t covered by subsidized-by-my-taxes federal flood insurance. I don’t care where you live, but anything more elaborate than a tent deserves to be washed away.
5. Michelle Young Cuenant | 08.25.08
Nikolai….I am not speaking of any one particular city at all in USA. but it is a fact that in LA, New Orleans, ..etc……women seem to be victims so much more easily than men , everywhere and therefore, of course women, as a rule, should be paranoid…too many guns all over the States not to mention so many violent guys out there with a chip on their shoulders..your taxes should be going to stop the rifle associations from all their promoting gun toting…ER’s and hospitals are collapsing from all the costs due to it…..not to mention no health care.
As for flood insurance…I can assure you, the insurance in Florida is sky high for flood and winds . etc….so much so, many people are forced to sell and move out….but I’ll go back to the beach part and the beauty of “fresh air” and clear skies”….I hope Floridians don’t have to pay for your “pollutions” and “ugliness” …please skip the Sunny South …we love it here.
6. Faramarz zareey | 08.26.08
What ever mankind needs the almighty has provided for us. Humanity has done enough damaged to the planet and abused the environment and not allowing to rebuilt itself, mankind gradually facing the most challenging task to work in harmony with nature, if we do not speed the healing process, the nature will correct itself in its own course and bring great devastation to humanity and mankind will pay the heaviest price for his stupidities and arrogance, purely for more material gains which in fact has become the loser in fight with nature. “Nature knows no decay” and nature teaches us what the consequences are when not in harmony.
7. PJ | 08.26.08
Evacuate? Why evacuate? If you’re dumb enough to spend $10M on a home that’s going to get slammed inside of five years; you’re really too stupid to live, period. Let ‘em get washed out to sea…
8. Michelle Young Cuenant | 08.26.08
“Heavens”! When both Republican and Democratic Presidents (Bush Sr. and JFK) have had summer homes on the North Eastern Atlantic coasts…( and the former having had his own home blown away by a hurricane about 20 years ago)….where is “safe” and where is “not evil”? “God” may be everywhere but so are catastrophes…whether they be in the form of starvation, tornadoes, wars, floods(even in the Heartland) not to mention tsunamis(let’s not foget about Cancer!)….so…people go where they have families…Christian or not…Jewish or not, Atheists or not, etc….it’s called “love” and I would have thought anywhere on “God’s” earth was worth the effort…be it seven foot beams, hurricane windows, United Nations or even the moon….(yes…NASA is on the coast as well)…thank you for the lovely “enlightenment”…but tragedies are what happens in everyone’s lives…God does not send it, special delivery, to anyone…that would be “vengeful”…would it not?
What an “eyeful” I have gotten from some on this list. Scary.
9. Michelle Young Cuenant | 08.26.08
“Heavens”! When both Republican and Democratic Presidents (Bush Sr. and JFK) have had summer homes on the North Eastern Atlantic coasts…( and the former having had his own home blown away by a hurricane about 20 years ago)….where is “safe” and where is “not evil”? “God” may be everywhere but so are catastrophes…whether they be in the form of starvation, tornadoes, wars, floods(even in the Heartland) not to mention tsunamis(let’s not foget about Cancer!)….so…people go where they have families…Christian or not…Jewish or not, Atheists or not, etc….it’s called “love” and I would have thought anywhere on “God’s” earth was worth the effort…be it seven foot beams, hurricane windows, United Nations or even the moon….(yes…NASA is on the coast as well)…thank you for the lovely “enlightenment”…but tragedies are what happens in everyone’s lives…God does not send it, special delivery, to anyone…that would be “vengeful”…would it not?
What an “eyeful” I have gotten from some on this list. Scary.
10. GMC | 08.26.08
Nikolai…what a beautiful thing to say - great Book…great passage, but you are forgetting reality. I don’t know anyone that lives in a tent, but I know that those that cannot afford more than a tent are living off tax payers, money (that’s my money and the money of every single LEGAL working person in this great Country of ours & “no subsidy about it”…it’s 100% tax payers money. Do you live in a tent? I haven’t seen any “tent camps” in New York. It takes money to live in today’s world and one gets it by either working or exploiting others through “the system”. On the other hand, you are true to your kind. Recite a passage from “the Book” and finish it by showing your colors and wish ill on someone. I believe you wrote (& I quote): I don’t care where you live, but anything more elaborate than a tent deserves to be washed away.
huuuummm…pain and suffering of others (regardless if by material loss or otherwise, doesn’t seem to bother you much after all.)
Out of curiosity, how often have you gone down to…say, Louisiana and help those that were in drastic need of a helping hand? I did! Several times!!!
11. Nikolai | 08.26.08
GMC — you’re right, my post was poorly worded for what I intended. I left out the crucial words “I don’t care where you live, but IF YOU’RE LIVING THAT CLOSE TO THE WATER, anything more elaborate than a tent deserves to be washed away.” I wrote with the context of the photo essay in mind — but of course, assuming that the image that was so obvious in my mind is also in everyone else’s was foolish.
I didn’t say I was a Christian; I was just quoting a great passage. No need to get your knickers in a knot over my possibly insufficient generosity to my fellow humans.
This country has seen a migration to the water unlike anything in past history, and it’s been subsidized by the federal government over the past 40 years of the NFIP. Louisiana is literally sinking into the Gulf, and the same government that allows the rebuilding of houses washed away on Dune Road in the Hamptons has allowed the deterioration of New Orleans’ levee and pump system and of the Mississippi River.
12. GMC | 09.03.08
Nikolai - You still seem to miss the point. In my book, anyone that uses the words “deserves to be washed away” directed at another, indicates wishing bad onto others and should restrain to be so self-righteous and avoid quotes from “The Book”. However, I must agree with you that the government shouldn’t subsidize foolishness. Without forgeting that anyone that owns a piece of dirt should have the right to do with it as he/she wishes…without your money or mine, I believe that what you meant to say is: Anyone foolish enough to build in precarious areas…man up and deal with the consequences and may God be with you…not my money!
13. Faramarz zareey | 05.17.09
“Bahá’í Scriptures teach that, as trustees of the planet’s
vast resources and biological diversity, humanity must seek
to protect the “heritage [of] future generations;” see in nature
a reflection of the divine; approach the earth, the source of
material bounties, with humility; temper its actions with
moderation; and be guided by the fundamental spiritual truth
of our age, the oneness of humanity. The speed and facility
with which we establish a sustainable pattern of life will depend,
in the final analysis, on the extent to which we are willing to
be transformed, through the love of God and obedience to
His Laws, into constructive forces in the process of creating
an ever-advancing civilization”.
(The Baha’i International Community, 1995 Apr 06, Conservation and Sustainable)
14. Faramarz zareey | 05.17.09
“ We cannot segregate the human heart from the environment
outside us and say that once one of these is reformed everything
will be improved. Man is organic with the world. His inner life
moulds the environment and is itself deeply affected by it. The
one acts upon the other and every abiding change in the life of
man is the result of these mutual reactions”.
(Shoghi Effendi, through his Secretary to an individual believer
from a letter dated 17 February 1933)
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1. Michelle Young Cuenant | 08.22.08
Ah yes…there is the rub…however, there are those who prefer the “Sea of Fishes” as opposed to the “Sea of Concrete”…as within those big cities are thousands of robbers, rapists, perverts, , not to mention, serial killers. (And besides, it can get cold!) :)
Alas, I prefer a “Storm” where flashlights and generators substitute for pepper spray and guns….we may be up to our knees in water every other decade, but peace is peace and violence is violence….I rather have seven foot pillars than bars on windows, any day.(And daily kisses from the Sun, to boot.)
Michelle Young Cuenant