The waters of the bay lap against the shoreline of San Francisco. Scientists say the sea level at the Golden Gate has risen over 7 inches in the past century due to glacial melting and thermal expansion.
(NEWSCOM/FILE)Photos (1 of 1)
Scientists: Sea-level rise worse than thought
By Eoin O'Carroll | 03.10.09
Climate scientists meeting in Copenhagen Tuesday warned that sea levels could rise to almost three times that of the official worst-case estimates, threatening hundreds of millions of people.
The landmark 2007 report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that sea levels would rise 18 to 59 centimeters – about 7 to 23 inches – by the end of the century. That would be enough to submerge several small island nations, and would inundate low-lying and densely populated deltas in Africa, East Asia, and on the Indian subcontinent.
But researchers gathered at the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change now say that those estimates are too conservative, that a rise of less than 50 centimeters is unlikely, and that sea levels are likely to rise about one meter.
The UN panel deliberately excluded from its calculations the loss of ice from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. More recent climate models are better able to predict how ice sheets react to warming and how they interact with oceans.
Agence France-Press quotes German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, who says that the new model predicts “a range of sea level rise by 2100 between 75 and 190 centimetres when we apply the IPCC’s temperature scenarios for the future.”
A press release from the climate congress quotes Konrad Steffen, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder: “The ice loss in Greenland has accelerated over the last decade. The upper range of sea level rise by 2100 might be above 1m or more on a global average, with large regional differences depending where the source of ice loss occurs,” he said.
In addition to melting polar regions, sea-level rise is also caused by thermal expansion – the tendency of water to increase in volume when it is heated. Australian climate scientist John Church, the lead speaker at the meeting’s sea-level conference, observed that sea levels have risen at about three millimeters a year since 1993, a rate that he called “well above the 20th century average.”
Some 600 million people – about one in 10 humans – live in low-lying areas in danger of being flooded under this scenario.
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2. Jill Brown | 03.10.09
It seems as though all the predictions I have read are alarming. But as we know, any environmental scenario is influenced by both climate and social conditions. People tend to justify what they want to produce and will “find” evidence to support their beliefs (science based or not). In fact, one could argue that there is a religion of science in which we as a scientifically driven culture worship research and the processes without question just as cultures of the past followed sun gods and ocean gods to explain any “unnatural event”.
Yes, climate change is accelerating sea level rise- that I do not dispute. But as an innovative species that can build a space ship and travel to the moon I would hope and expect we can learn how to adapt quickly and be prepared for some of these sea level predictions we have forecasted.
On another note, I have to ask, “Why are we wasting time arguing about how much the sea level is rising?” I mean we are not going to stop it. So why can’t we move forward and make sure our coastal communities (and all of us for that matter) are taken the initial steps (both mental and physical) to become resilient, secure, and supported? As a nation, we need to be able to act now and communicate whatever science we have letting the public and local communities decide what is best for them.
3. Mike Higgins | 03.10.09
Readers should note what has been omitted from this article:
“World’s oceans rise slower since 2005, fail to display predicted accelerating trend. Satellite altimetry data indicates that the rate at which the world’s oceans are rising has slowed significantly since 2005. Before the decrease, sea level had been rising by more than 3mm/year, which corresponds to an increase of about one foot per century. Since 2005, however, the rate has been closer to 2mm/year.”
“Sea level has been rising since the end of the last ice age, some 20,000 years ago. During an episode known as “Meltwater Pulse 1A”, the world’s oceans rose by more than 5 meters per century, a rate about 20 times faster than the current increase.”
See http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/defying_predictions_sea_level_rise_begins_to_slow/ for details and a chart showing a leveling off of sea level rise since 2005, not an acceleration, or “worst than thought.”
4. Pete | 03.10.09
Mike Higgins says “Here we go again…”
Yeah Mike, the respected journals and scientists are no experts, you are the real expert! Lets all listen to you!
I thought Exxon gave up paying the global warming deniers, why don’t you go get a real job?
5. tom johnson | 03.11.09
Regardless of whether climate change is causing the seas to rise, it is rising. The detractors who claim empirical data is missing didn’t read the line about 3 mm a year since 1993 and don’t understand the science. The models used for the IPCC report showed a sea level increase of 1.2mm per year between 1961 and 2003, while the real data showed it to be 50 percent higher at 1.8mm per year. This is how science works. They wrote the model, then back tested the model against real empirical data. A model is validated when it’s results predict a result that approximates the real data. The part that is both worrying and interesting is that the model underestimated the rise.
6. Mike Higgins | 03.11.09
Dr. Vincent Gray, a New Zealand based climatologist and expert reviewer for the IPCC, believes that the accelerated trends seen earlier were simply an artifact of poor measurements. “The satellite system has undoubtedly shown a rise since 1992, but it has leveled off”, he tells DailyTech. “They had some bad calibration errors at the beginning.”
Gray points to a study done by Flanders University using tide gauges which, he says, measured no perceptible increase in sea level over its entire 15 year period.
See http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13679&red=y#379264 for details.
7. Chris | 03.11.09
This change is not unexpected. The article clearly states that the UN panel deliberately left out the impact of Greenland and Antarctic melting from their calculations. Isn’t it pretty obvious that the sea level rise would be higher if this was included? Seems to me that Mike’s comments are ignoring this important fact.
8. Arthur E. Lemay | 03.12.09
Native American Indians believed that if you banged on the rain drums loud enough so that the Gods would hear it — that it would rain. As a rain drum denier I find it hard to refute the fact that sometimes it did rain. When this happened the Indians would say “see how effective it is!”
Unfortunately, the climate models so esteemed by the UN Panel are not as good as rain drums because none of their predictions have ever been correct. Real scientists say “when the observations disagree with the theory, it is the theory which should be discarded.”
Politicians just bang the propaganda drums even louder. The key question is not “is it warming?” The right question is “does man’s CO2 emissions have any effect on the climate?” It would seem that there is not one shred of evidence that it does. And, except for the period of 1975 to 1998, constant increases in CO2 saw cooling, not warming. But in the humpty-dumpty land of politics cooling is warming, truth is fiction, up is down — George Orwell would be proud.
The idea that man can control the climate by reducing consumption of carbon based energy — and the associated CO2 emissions has received world-wide funding of at least fifty billion dollars. And after spending this colossal amount of money — to have nothing but a bunch of computer models which don’t predict anything correctly tells us it’s a wild goose chase.
9. Pata | 03.12.09
Here we go again, cherry-picking whatever eccentric “data” feeds one’s predilections.
What would surprise us is finding an expert “anything” connected with the IPCC.
10. Arthur E. Lemay | 03.12.09
The objective of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is to implement the schemes like the Kyoto Protocols to provide the UN with a reliable source of income to grow and advance its agenda. And, as President Chirac of France said, “to implement worldwide governance.” This is what the “cap and trade” scheme does because it permits Governments to set allowances for CO2 emissions by industry and to implement “industrial policy” which controls the profitability, and the very survival of industries. This is the way Obama could bankrupt the coal industry. It will destroy capitalism and install a Soviet-style commissar system of government controls, the government officals would likely be environmentalists who have wanted to impose their world-view for many years.
Government bodies all over the world see billions of dollars in new revenues through this scheme. California estimates it will receive twelve billion dollars per year, and carbon traders, like those in Al Gore’s investment portfolio, can also expect billions in revenues. The carbon traders were the single largest group in the Bali climate conference and had banners flying which said “this is a new billions of dollars profits industry.” This is certainly true, but to us, it is our money into their pockets, and it does not matter whether the climate is affected or not.
The Kyoto protocols took effect in 2005, and so far, only two countries have met their goals, for reasons not related to Kyoto. Kyoto is really a test project to set the stage for the future. So far, the UN has levied multi-billion dollar fines on Japan, Spain, and Italy. So, by a bureaucrat’s standards Kyoto is working, but by the standard of reducing CO2 emissions it is a total failure.
So far, scientists who have worked in climate science using computer models based on sunspots, long term cycles of irregularities of the earth’s rotation and path around the sun have correctly predicted climate trends. The IPCC rejects these theories and doggedly sticks to its theories that CO2 controls the climate. Their models have never predicted anything correctly. And when someone asks “why is it that the other planets warm and cool like the earth, if it is not the sun causing it,” there is no answer from the IPCC.
It would seem, to paraphrase a political slogan, “it’s the money, stupid.” Man-caused global warming is not science, it’s politics masquerading as science, and it is increasingly clear that the IPCC and all the others who fervently believe in this are letting sugar plum faries dancing in their heads — dreaming of big jobs as dictators of the world’s economies and enjoying billions in receipts are just rent-seekers wanting to take our money for nothing.
We are now discovering that the science has been manipulated, that reports like NASA’s are false, and that reputable scientists who were part of the IPCC are saying man-caused global warming does not exist and that the IPCC misrepresented their work. So, it seems the IPCC is following Goebble’s dictum “if you repeat a lie long enough and often enough, people will believe it.”
11. Arthur E. Lemay | 03.12.09
The objective of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is to implement the schemes like the Kyoto Protocols to provide the UN with a reliable source of income to grow and advance its agenda. And, as President Chirac of France said, “to implement worldwide governance.” This is what the “cap and trade” scheme does because it permits Governments to set allowances for CO2 emissions by industry and to implement “industrial policy” which controls the profitability, and the very survival of industries. This is the way Obama could bankrupt the coal industry. It will destroy capitalism and install a Soviet-style commissar system of government controls, the government officials would likely be environmentalists who have wanted to impose their world-view for many years.
Government bodies all over the world see billions of dollars in new revenues through this scheme. California estimates it will receive twelve billion dollars per year, and carbon traders, like those in Al Gore’s investment portfolio, can also expect billions in revenues. The carbon traders were the single largest group in the Bali climate conference and had banners flying which said “this is a new billions of dollars profits industry.” This is certainly true, but to us, it is our money into their pockets, and it does not matter whether the climate is affected or not.
The Kyoto protocols took effect in 2005, and so far, only two countries have met their goals, for reasons not related to Kyoto. Kyoto is really a test project to set the stage for the future. So far, the UN has levied multi-billion dollar fines on Japan, Spain, and Italy. So, by a bureaucrat’s standards Kyoto is working, but by the standard of reducing CO2 emissions it is a total failure.
So far, scientists who have worked in climate science using computer models based on sunspots, long term cycles of irregularities of the earth’s rotation and path around the sun have correctly predicted climate trends. The IPCC rejects these theories and doggedly sticks to its theories that CO2 controls the climate. Their models have never predicted anything correctly. And when someone asks “why is it that the other planets warm and cool like the earth, if it is not the sun causing it,” there is no answer from the IPCC.
It would seem, to paraphrase a political slogan, “it’s the money, stupid.” Man-caused global warming is not science, it’s politics masquerading as science, and it is increasingly clear that the IPCC and all the others who fervently believe in this are letting sugar plum faries dancing in their heads — dreaming of big jobs as dictators of the world’s economies and enjoying billions in receipts are just rent-seekers wanting to take our money for nothing.
We are now discovering that the science has been manipulated, that reports like NASA’s are false, and that reputable scientists who were part of the IPCC are saying man-caused global warming does not exist and that the IPCC misrepresented their work. So, it seems the IPCC is following Goebble’s dictum “if you repeat a lie long enough and often enough, people will believe it.”
12. Sandy | 03.12.09
Whether or not its unnatural or natural doesn’t matter, the sea is rising. People live on the coastlines of just about every continent. Beaches are eroding across the globe. The seas are rising. Whether its more or less than predicted doesn’t matter to the guy whose house is about to fall into the drink. Start regulating coastal construction with a smattering of common sense and maybe we won’t all be paying outrageous premiums on our flood insurance.
13. Ron Scheurer | 03.13.09
Have no fear. The fundamentalists KNOW that the late JC is on the way, and he is going to teach everyone how to walk on water. Or swim. Or develop gills?
No! That would involve evolution. And that would mean developing brains enough not to reproduce ourselves off the planet.
14. eva schubert-herzfeld | 03.14.09
some of the reactions i’m reading remind me of the reactions to reporting in the past of regarding signs of the housing bubble bursting. everyone had point of view. many bloggers and critics lambasted said reporters, insteading of honestly investigating the information, and the situation grew. it remained largely ignored. i’m not suggesting one believes everything posted on the web or in the papers — but if one doubts information posted, try reserching it. truely researching it –thourghly, not just looking for information to support a like-minded point of view. the sea is rising. there are new terms, now, entering our everyday vocabulary, such as global dimming. a well informed opinion, backed by fact, in today’s society is a more powerful tool, than any other.
15. Bill Fleming | 03.16.09
For me the underlying question is one of motives. Humanity cannot continue to exploit the natural resources of the planet without the planet making the necessary adjustments to re-establish a balance. Would you allow your car engine to work in the garage indefinitely? No, because you would get poisoned with carbon monoxide. This world is like the garage in some respects and the sooner we realise that the better!! Governments are going to have to make some tough decisions in the very near future which will require lots of prayer (for those of us that pray).
16. John S. Kistler | 03.16.09
It’s easy for me to be confused about reports on global warming and rising water. I’m disturbed that there is no source in the science community that can explain both sides of the debate. The Christian Science Monitor is the most respected newspapers in the world; can you please take up this issue? The arguments are absolutely contrary. Please leave out opinions. Keep the “Science” in Christian Science Monitor and keep those of us who have no axe to grind, informed.
17. Skyman | 03.23.09
As Paul Simon so astutely observed. “A man hears what he wants to hear, and disregards the rest…”
I only hope that the true scientists, who objectively study data, insist on confirmation of the data, and without hesitation alter or disregard theories that fail to predict future observations (regardless of who that offends or economically impacts) continue the pursuit of knowledge, and that they prevail soon!
18. pata | 03.25.09
It would be delightful to be able to plug into a true-science-module that would invariably proffer pellets of pure guaranteed truth upon demand. Unfortunately, a trip to any substantial library would allow you to read the letters columns of hundreds of scientific journals and see the controversy that largely comprises them. Human scientists disagree about methodology, mathematical modeling, sampling errors, experimental design, and so on and on….
It is encouraging that there is a massive and growing scientific consensus on Global Climate Crisis. This link, among many others, shows charts and graphs that aid making intuitive sense of a hugely complex investigation:
http://globalclimatechange.jpl.nasa.gov/
Americans, especially, can do so much so easily by reducing wastefulness. The average American household draws down 700-750 kiloWatt-hours of electricity each month. This contrasts with our Canadian neighbors to the North who average only 300 kiloWatt-hours of electricity in the same time frame, despite having radically larger heating and lighting days.
The 18th century, some say 17th century invention, the “internal combustion engine” wastes an incredible 70% of the gasoline it inhales.
There are some excellent books available showing how to dive into energy efficiency practices and come up with 100’s even 1,000’s of dollars in savings per year.
19. EJ | 04.30.09
I just read all of the comments above.. Amazing!!! There are some of you that believe that globe warming is a joke and others that take this issue very seriously.
Lets keep it simple lady’s and gentleman. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to observe how we as human brings are destroying our planet. I have traveled all over the world. The pollution is unbearable in most 3rd world countries.
It is a fact that our environment is taking on a change like never before. Ice is melting off of the highest pecks around the globe at a accelerated rate.
It is a fact the the polar ice caps are melting like never before in our history.
It is a fact that many species are becoming extinct before our very eyes including the polar bears in Antarctica.
It is a fact that oil and coal pollutes our environment and is directly related to co2 emissions.
It is fact that the world population is growing with estimates of 9 billion by 2020. This means more pollution considering our current position as the polluters of this planet.
It is a fact that we are seeing droughts in places never seen before and it is expected to see further droughts in the mid west farm belts.
It is a fact that we have experienced the 11 hottest summers on record in the last 15 years.
It is a fact the that Brazil has experienced its first hurricane which was believed by scientist to be impossible to acure in that part of the reign.
It is a fact that we have had 16 huricanes in one season a new world record.
And is is fact that water levels are rising.. Considering the ice caps are melting at accelerated rate that the water levels are in tern rising at a accelerated rate. That’s called common sense.
Do you think the world is getting warmer???? Hello!!! Wake up ladys and gentlman… We have a globle problem that must be addressed…
Lets not ignore what is happening around us. We are killing the planet. Yes globe warming is very real and yes we all need to wake up!!!!! Iets stop bickering a start doing something to change the current conditions that is threatening mankind’s existence on this planet.
If we don’t change now, our children and grand children wont live to see a better day and we might not either if this world wide catastrophe continues to devastate our planet.
And for the critics out there that are in denial about the current world conditions, Travel around the world. Go to 3rd world countries and see for yourself. If that doesn’t convince you that something is very wrong, nothing well.
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1. Mike Higgins | 03.10.09
Here we go again… more “worse than thought” is the new talking point of the global warming alarmists while all the scientific data coming out shows no warming for the past 10 years and significant cooling for the past two years and perhaps longer. This is almost becoming hilarious.
As usual, no empirical data is offered to back up the statements - only new climate models, none of which have predicted the current leveling of temperatures or the recent decline of temperatures. Whatʻs truly “worse than thought” is the potential reductions in grant money that these unethical scientists fear may occur if global warming is no longer considered a crisis by world governments.