A US Coast Guard C-130 flies over broken sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. Scientists say they expect the Arctic Ocean to be ice free in the summer within the next few decades. Much of that melt-back may come within the next decade, some researchers say.
(Reuters)Photos (1 of 1)
Arctic Ocean meltdown: Say goodbye to the Arctic ice cap
By Pete Spotts | 10.15.09
It’s been another lean summer for the Arctic Ocean’s sheath of summer sea ice.
Much of the ice in one region is too thin to survive next summer’s melt season, according to an expedition that trekked across the ice in the Beaufort Sea off the coasts of Canada and Alaska.
An expedition by the World Wildlife Fund and the Catlin Arctic Survey found that the average thickness of the ice it measured was roughly 1.8 meters (6 feet). It released the results today.
After reviewing the data the expedition collected, a team at the University of Cambridge’s Polar Ocean Physics Group concluded that the ice cap is on track to vanish during Arctic summers sometime within a generation.
The new data “supports the consensus view — based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperature, winds, and especially ice composition — that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer within about 20 years.” By “composition” he’s referring to the ratio of thick multi-year ice that resists summer melt to become the foundation for the next winter’s freeze and thinner one- or two-year-old ice that fails to make it through the following summer.
Earlier this month, the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., released its end-of-the season wrap-up Oct. 6 and came to essentially the same conclusion.
This year’s summer ice reached the third lowest extent since scientists began tracking the ice with satellites in 1979. But more first-year and second year ice has survived compared with the past couple of summer, notes Walt Meier, a senior scientist at the center.
“If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years,” he said in a statement. “However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer.”
The center’s director, Mark Serreze, added that “it’s nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there’s no reason to think that we’re headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades.”
So where do the latest data leave the matter? Scientists always relish more data. And it’s useful to try to provide ground truth to information satellites gather. But the Catlin-WWF results don’t alter the picture the wider group of polar scientist has been assembling. Global warming continues to take its toll on Arctic sea ice. But natural variability, which plants itself atop the longer-term temperature trends, make precise predictions of an ice-free summer at the top of the world difficult. Hence the “sometime.”
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2. shores | 10.15.09
you’re talking about handfuls of planes and vehicles. the expeditions are not the cause of the ice melt. their impact is miniscule. you’re looking for irony where it is not present. there’s no irony to this ice melt. only the cold hard truth that you’re not owning up to.
3. Moon | 10.15.09
Something should be done about this, becuase we need to protect our earth, if we dont act right know in the future you never know what will happen to the earth. Political people should prepare for these kind of things know because this is waht will affect the future not what we do in the future, it’s all about today
4. Perry Celsus | 10.15.09
Chris’s comment (#1) is brilliant! And it just goes to show you the kind of perverse power these scientists have! Think about it. In L.A., it took millions and people — and millions of cars! — to create their environmental difficulties (like for instance, smog). In the Arctic, these scientists have been able to replicate similar damage with only a few hundred — max! — people. How powerful they are…how evil, how perverse, how twisted! Be afraid, fellow deniers — be very afraid.
5. Eric (skeptic) | 10.16.09
“But natural variability, which plants itself atop the longer-term temperature trends, make precise predictions of an ice-free summer at the top of the world difficult” That is backwards. Natural variability created the Roman warming, Medieval warming, and most of the current warming along with “little” ice ages in between. Man’s contribution is perhaps 0.5 degrees which plants itself atop the natural variability. The Arctic ice will be back just like before, may take a decade to get back to the late 70’s peak, but it will get back based on current trends. The Antarctic ice is currently at a satellite era peak.
6. John | 10.17.09
You should go read this: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/15/top-ten-reasons-why-i-think-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-data-cant-be-trusted/
This expedition was not scientific in nature. They only surveyed first year ice, they did not survey long term ice. They also set out to prove what they are claiming with the press is tow. So of course they proved it. Do some research, temperatures have been dropping on this planet for the last 5 years. These people know this, so they are releasing this alarmist stuff to push their agenda through. That way, they can say to us: Look it worked, when if we just wait, it will work itself out anyway.
7. Jeff | 10.17.09
There is no “trend” being established. The climate has changed for eons, and the small moment man has been aware of such things is simply not enough time to know if what is happening is normal variation or not. We hear the talking points by proponents of man-caused warming all the time, like “The Northwest passage has opened for the first time in recorded history!,” Which is a patent lie. Fake polar bear pictures, selective data, all very transparent as political, not scientific. In short, I’m not buying it. I’ve been around nearly 60 years now and I don’t fall for every “the sky is falling” prediction. I’ve seen too many of these false prophesies.
8. B1941 | 10.17.09
You know…I don’t think it matters. The Polar Ice Cap has melted in past geologic times and it certainly will melt again. Will it cause sea levels to rise? If you fill a glass with ice and water, when the ice melts will it overflow? I don’t think so. Remember Greenland was named Greenland because…guess what? It was green and many kinds of firs and vegetation thrived because of it. And the poor polar bears survived the last global warming, so stop stressing and pick another more important cause. If you want to get mad about something - do your homework and see what businesses Al Gore owns and the billions he will make if “Cap and Trade” passes through our legislature.
9. Webmusher | 10.21.09
When Euroman arrived in the Los Angeles Basin there was a layer of smog created by the thousands of fires that the Indians living in the Valley kept burning to cook their meals and heat their homes. Cars contributed, but 10 million People clustered anywhere even without cars are going to create a smog layer. The Northern indigenous peoples were quite happy with limited fuels to burn before they were introduced to oil, gas, wood, coal and tobacco. Now the increased particulates in the Arctic air from easy access to burney things will wipe out the ice and the Polar Bears. Critters go extinct, get over it, no, be happy about it, think adolescent velocipraptor swarms.
10. Douglas Van Tress | 10.24.09
This is truly great news –the ice is growing again! Moreover, it seems very likely that that it will continue to grow in the years ahead, given that previous increases and decreases seem to come in waves spread out over multiple years. It is apparently related to the higher density of water, compared to air. Water heats and cools more gradually than air.
We are definitely not out of the woods, however, as the current ice growth trend is probably only due to the current 100 year low in solar output. In the popular vernacular, “it’s the sun, stupid!” When the sun’s warmth returns and the ocean currents warm again, we will be back to where we started: with melting arctic ice. Though CO2’s contribution is probably massively overestimated by today’s primitive computer models it is still significant and the ONLY factor under our control. We can and must use this 10 or 20 year respite to take the steps we can to control possible future damage –we can’t be complacent. Sure, natural forces are mostly responsible but it does not logically follow that we have to accept these forces. Did we shiver in caves 10,000 year ago? Yes, but we also made fires. Now we have to put them out.
11. Steve | 11.14.09
So called global warming is a normal natural event. Without global warming we would still be in the last ice age and a substantial portion of the USA would be covered by an ice sheet. The ice age ended (with no assistance whatsoever from man), the ice melted and continues to do so. Eventually temperatures will stabilize, then gradually fall, ice will accumulate again and the next ice age will begin. Geologically speaking sea levels are more or less at a mid point. The geological record shows they have been roughly 200 feet lower and also 200 feet, more or less, higher than they are today. Melting arctic ice will not raise sea level at all anyway because it’s already floating and displacing the same amount of sea water that it would in a liquid state. To appreciably raise sea level at all the ice sheets in Greenland would have to melt and to raise sea level to geologically historic highs Antarctic ice would have to melt in mass and little if any of Antarctica even rises to the freezing mark in the summer. Global warming and cooling cycles are normal events and completely beyond the control of man, no matter how arrogantly he may believe he has control, he has none.
Trackbacks/Pingbacks
1. Transport Gooru » Do Your Bit to Reverse Climate Change Today! Blog Action Day 2009 – October 15, 2009 | 10.15.09
2. Twitter Trackbacks for Arctic Ocean meltdown: Say goodbye to the Arctic ice cap | csmonitor.com [csmonitor.com] on Topsy.com | 10.16.09
3. Cool Green Morning: Friday, October 16 | Cool Green Science: The Conservation Blog of The Nature Conservancy | 10.16.09
4. Major Arctic Ice Survey Finds Significant Drop in Ice Thickness (2009) | Arctos Canadensis | 10.16.09
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1. chris | 10.15.09
My guess is that all the human activity up there…in other words all these expeditions, core drilling, etc, are helping to thaw and break the ice. Think about it. Smog was a local condition, correct? Due to car emissions and coal burning. Well, guess what? The vehicles needed to make the trips to investigate these glaciers are pretty big, burn a lot of fuel and emit hot exhaust that would not be there had people just left well enough alone.