Along the Russian-Georgian border, war games or prelude to war?
Although both countries claim the military exercises are simply for practice, some wonder if the old dispute is again flaring.
By Fred Weir | Correspondent 06.30.09
MOSCOW – Both Russia and Georgia claim to fear a fresh attack from the other. That’s why, each insists, they’re staging war games and building up military forces to levels unseen since last August’s brief but brutal war over the breakaway Georgian territory of South Ossetia.
Some experts suggest the Russians may be testing President Barack Obama, who arrives in Moscow on Monday, the very day Russia’s current military mobilization is scheduled to end. Together with its new allies South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Moscow is this week holding its biggest post-Soviet army maneuvers amid the tense, mountainous borderlands where last summer’s war raged. Georgia has denounced the Kavkaz-2009 games, which feature 8,500 troops and 200 tanks, as “pure provocation” and a possible prelude to renewed hostilities. Last month, Moscow slammed considerably smaller NATO-sponsored exercises in Georgia in nearly identical terms (read more Monitor coverage here).
“The Georgian government is very agitated around these Russian war games, and is at least suggesting that it is connected with the Obama visit to Moscow,” says George Khutsishvili, director of the independent International Center for Conflict and Negotiation in Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi. “The fear here is that if Obama reveals some weakness in his talks in Moscow, that it could lead to a renewal of the war…. I don’t take this seriously, but there is no doubt that these military exercises are a demonstration of force on the anniversary of the war. They show that Russia is ready.”
Among other things, Russia is testing several new weapons – such as the T-90 tank – and fresh tactics adopted following harsh assessments of its Army’s performance during the August war (read more here).
In Northern Ossetia, the Russian border region linked to South Ossetia, where the bulk of the war games are taking place, there is also deep unease over the dueling exercises.
“We are hearing about concentrations of Georgian troops near the border, and this is deeply alarming for us,” says Olga Vyshlova, editor of the daily Severnaya Ossetiya newspaper in Vladikavkaz, the capital city of North Ossetia. “The Caucasus is not a calm region. If the Russian troops are building up their skills to protect us, what’s wrong with that?”
A fierce dispute still rages over who started last summer’s war, which broke out barely a week after Russia had completed its then largest-ever regional war games, Kavkaz-2008. The consensus of experts, a year on, is that Russia may have been looking for reasons to attack Western-leaning Georgia, but Georgian President Mikhael Saakashvili gave Moscow an ideal pretext by launching a surprise military assault to retake the Russian-protected breakaway statelet of South Ossetia on the night of August 7 (read more Monitor coverage here).
The Kremlin’s point of view is that Mr. Saakashvili has still not relinquished his dream of recovering separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force, even though both have since been recognized as independent states by Moscow. Hence, this week’s massive Russian war games are presented as a defensive gambit.
“The purpose is to cool down any possible fantasies in Saakashvili’s circle, to show that Russia is ready to defend Abkhazia and Ossetia,” says Valentin Rudenko, director of the independent Interfax-Military news agency. “Russia has no intention of upsetting the present status quo. Its aims are defensive.”
But some experts maintain that Russia has unfinished business with Georgia, and that a new war may be in the cards as early as mid-July. Pavel Felgenhauer, a military expert with the Russian opposition weekly newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, argues that Moscow needs a fresh conflict to consolidate its hold on South Ossetia, control the oil and gas resources of the Caspian region, and rid itself of the all-too-resilient Saakashvili.
“These Russian military exercises have grown in scope each year, and last year, they were a direct preparation for war with Georgia,” Mr. Felgenhauer says. “It could be the same this year.”
He argues that South Ossetia, a tiny enclave that existed in a kind of no-man’s land between Russia and Georgia until last summer’s war joined it forcibly with Russia, has become economically unviable since Russian troops sealed its border with Georgia.
“The people in South Ossetia nearly starved last winter,” Felgenhauer says. “Basically, South Ossetia cannot survive unless it has an open border with Georgia,” as it did in the past.
Since Russia refuses to negotiate the status of South Ossetia with Saakashvili, “that suggests they are planning to deal with him through regime change,” Felgenhauer adds.
Russia and NATO last week put aside their differences over last summer’s Caucasus war and renewed their military cooperation, but serious tensions remain over US support for Georgia’s eventual membership in the Western military alliance.
Both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and the powerful prime minister, Vladimir Putin, have argued that Saakashvili is an illegitimate leader and an unstable personality with whom Moscow can never do business.
But nearly three months of rolling demonstrations by Georgia’s opposition have failed to unseat Saakashvili and left the Kremlin with few options to manage the deteriorating relationship with its wayward neighbor.
“Saakashvili and the opposition are locked in a stalemate, at a very low level,” says Mr. Khutsishvili. “It’s all subsided, but nothing is solved. Most people don’t want either side to win, but want the country to move forward.”
As for the rumors of war, he says: “The mood here is very tense. But few people think an attack from Russia is imminent.”
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2. Alex | 06.30.09
Who cares if it’s any one sphere of influence, if the Georgian people and Government want no relations with Russia, then Russia should force them to? Come on we live in the year 2009 and not 1909, this so typical of Russia and it’s “Democratic” Government. And Russia’s can’t fight the world, it needs countries to sell it resources to, it is as much dependent on the west as the west is dependent on Russia. If Georgia want to join Nato and EU, why not let them. Georgia under Russia had always been some backwater country in the EuroAsia Continent, now it’s seeing it economic wealth rise and plays a geographical leader in the world, it has every intention to want to join the west. GO GEORGIA
3. richard potter | 06.30.09
It would be a mistake not to recognize Russia’s agenda in the resource rich
areas near the Caspian and political aims in Eastern Europe. The President,
Barack Obama should be firm in our reaffirmation of Georgia’s admission to
NATO, the defense of Poland, the Chech Republic, and deployment of a defense shield.
4. American Mike | 06.30.09
Wow, the people of the world want peace and democracy. They want to chose new leaders every few years and not be kept under the boot of a dictator. Stop the war talk and do business. If the people in the break away area likes to prosper, they will do business. If not, the people will leave and the last person there can turn out the lights. Think of Poland and East Germany. Total repression, but the people wanted freedom. Now look at the standard of living in Eastern Europe. Peace and freedom means good business and good business means better lives. Stop dying and killing over the shape of some persons nose.
5. u.siddiqi@att.net | 06.30.09
Georgia is beating the war drum, not Russia! It would be helpful if the West would not always jump when Russia does what we all do: constantly testing new weapons in territory they like to show their muscles to. USA does it all the time, so does NATO.
Georgia needs desperately a protector, so they keep the “victim” role center stage. I am quite fed up with these little dictators playing cards with the big guys. They are mostly the cause of nasty disagreements between real powers that have more important agenda items to work on than keeping these guys in government.
6. George Shengelaia | 06.30.09
It would be beneficial for Russia instead of reviving the USSR to start building infrastructure. What does Russia produce? Oil and gaz will last another 30 years. What will Russia do afterward when there will be no petro-consumption?
Russia will disintegrate soon. The first wave is dissolution and then formation of new alliances, federations, confederations and countries that will join the civilized world. And Russia will be only one third of the current size. Don’t forget China, it’s gobbling Eastern Russia already. This will be the next “multipolar” world.
Russia should take care of its own problems and keep its hands off the Caucasus, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. They have to get used to the fact that they are leaving your “spheres of influence”.
Russia’s economy has been halved in one year.
Russia has built FSB network all over the world in 8 years, but it will take much less time to destroy.
Russian military is only 30% efficient as it was demonstrated during your invasion in Chechnya or Georgia.
Russia has at least 10,000,000 unemployed people in 10 months.
Russia’s inflation reached 16% during this period.
The country has a serious brain drainage problem because Russian intellectuals cannot fit themselves in the “modern”, criminalized environment.
Russian population is shrinking by geometrical progression.
Russia has the highest death rate in the world due to alcohol, narcotics and AIDS. “Excessive alcohol consumption in Russia, particularly by men, has in several recent years caused more than half of all the deaths at ages of 15-54 years,” the Lancet article said.
Infant mortality rate in Russia is on the level of the most poorest countries.
Russians must be proud. Vova’s great achievement! Congratulations!
7. Vasya | 07.01.09
Putin is losing Siberia to China, Kuril Islands and Sakahalin to Japan and his criminalized system should be thinking to take care of Russian territories, instead of thinking of reviving USSR. Vova and FSB Associates Inc must create a business friendly atmosphere for the Western capital to save their rears which might burn soon. Forget tiny Georgia, or the entire Caucasus and Central Asia, because 30-40 years down the road there will be no oil or gas left. Why Vova and Mitia do not think instead about building infrastructure, attract beautiful minds as it happens in the West? Well, Russians wake up and get rid off this two evil men!
8. lol | 07.01.09
You really want to see Georgia in NATO? But you really want to defend it?
You really want to die for their mad President? Well, if you wish…
9. Lucky | 07.01.09
Dear American tax bearers. On your money mister Bush raised moron Saakashvili. … You probably are happy from all this dung?
The group of belgian public relations specialists sended the foreign journalists a lot of e-mails with incorrect information about the war from the georgian view.The belgian public relations specialists informed the foreign journalists about the invasion of Russia into Georgia, about “the intensive bombing of Tbilissi” and about the usurpation of Gori by russian army.
This messages helped to show Russia as an agressor.
The list of winners is like this:
1.Vladimir Putin (” he clearly showed the world, that georgia was the agressor and that the russian soldiers tried ti stio the genocide”)
2. Dmitryi Medvedev (” He declared the end of the war the day,Nicolas Sarkozi arrived in Moscow, and it gave him a diplomatical advantage”)
3.Russian military power
The looser is Mihail Saakashvili (”tie eating moron”, “american puppet” + “The video, where Saakashvili hides from russian helicopter, said everything about him”), the chiefs of the western countries(” they were late and didn’t want to help the potential member of NATO”)
Alas poor Yorick…
10. @all | 07.02.09
It is nice to read always these comments in here. Russia is a country last year has proved his 1980`s army was not the army of the Yugoslavs of 1995 that lost so fast against western Croatia . It has proved it can break every opposition in Georgia immediately and also the western world not able to prevent it. However, Russia is corrupt old-fashioned reality is exact like it is reality this NATO is modern but no power factor in the Caucasus. Also it is a reality that the whole East European states whether dictatorship or not equally poor. The wages in Moscow are exact like in Estonia, the argument western democracy against dictatorship does not work, in the meantime, everybody knows how the economic recovery in East Europe has originated (cheap money from US) this is also reality…
11. USAROCKSMAN | 07.05.09
It would be beneficial for USA instead of reviving NATO to start building infrastructure. What does the USA produce? American produced gass guzzlers and its auto-industry is a thing of the past sold off to China by the annointed one, the Messiah and his Wall Street buddies. What will USA do afterward when it has bonecrushing debt it cannot service causing a force majuer and no manufacturing to speak of?
USA will disintegrate soon. The first wave is dissolution and then formation of new alliances, federations, confederations that will join the coming inspired NWO ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT. And USA will be only one third of the current size. Don’t forget Mexico, it’s gobbling Southwest USA already. USA’s white population is dying out due to ageing and abortions. This will be the next “multipolar” world.
USA should take care of its own problems and keep its hands off the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East & Latin America. They have to get used to the fact that they are leaving your “spheres of influence”.
USA’s economy has been halved in one year.
USA has built CIA network all over the world in 50 years, but it will take much less time to destroy.
USA military is only 30% efficient as it was demonstrated during your current predicaments of fighting cavemen in Iraq & Afghanistan and still no end insight of quashing the rebellions and insurgencies in both countries despite your technical superiority.
USA has at least 15% unemployed people in 10 months.
USA’s inflation reached 16% during this period.
The country has a serious brain drainage problem because American intellectuals cannot fit themselves in the “modern”, criminalized environment Rober-Baron oligarchy of the Wall-Street criminals.
White population in USA is shrinking by geometrical progression.
USA has the highest death rate in the world due to alcohol, narcotics and AIDS. “Excessive narcotics consumption in USA, non-gender specific, has in several recent years caused more than half of all the deaths at ages of 15-54 years,” the Lancet article said.
Infant mortality rate in USA amongst its minority populations is on the level of the most poorest countries.
Americans must be proud. Washington’s great achievement! Congratulations!
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1. Miklos | 06.30.09
Go Russia! Gorgia and the West have no business driving any agenda in the region. I hope if anyone goes out of line they get the russian beating stick again. This is all in Russia’s sphere of influence and they have all the rights to drive their agenda in any direction they please. The West has no resources to support a conflict in the region anyhow. If Georgia presses the issue they will be left high and dry. Russia has the upper hand.