A South Korean man watches undated footage of a North Korean missile launch at a railway station in Seoul, South Korea on Thursday.
(Lee Jin-man/AP)Photos (1 of 1)
Are N. Korea’s short-range missile tests a prelude?
Thursday’s tests were expected; what’s at issue now is whether Pyongyang will send a long-range missile toward Hawaii on July 4.
By Peter Grier | Staff writer 07.02.09
Washington – North Korea’s launch of four short-range missiles Thursday was widely expected by US and South Korean intelligence. The question now is whether these firings were the main event or just a prelude to something more threatening: the test of a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Last month, Japanese media reported that Pyongyang might shoot a long-range ICBM in the direction of Hawaii around the July 4 holiday. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates ordered the deployment in the region of US antimissile interceptors and a sea-based tracking radar.
President Obama thought the situation serious enough to address in an interview broadcast on June 22.
“Our military is fully prepared for any contingencies” regarding North Korea, Mr. Obama said.
But despite Thursday’s ripple of short-range test shots, there is little physical evidence North Korea is readying another long-range test, at least in the foreseeable future. And even if the North Koreans do test another ICBM, it is “highly unlikely” they would actually intend the missile as an attack on Hawaii, according to David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program.
According to wire service reports, North Korea on Thursday fired two ground-to-ship missiles into the ocean from the eastern coastal city of Wonsan. Two other similar short-range tests followed, but details as to firing location and missile type were not readily available. All four missiles flew about 60 miles, said the Associated Press (AP).
“It’s not a good sign because [North Korea] is demonstrating its military power,” South Korea Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan told the AP. Japan and Russia also expressed concern about the tests.
The tests were expected because North Korea had warned ships to stay away from areas off its eastern coastline through July 10, due to the possibility of military exercises.
These launches come at a time when tensions between Pyongyang and much of the rest of the world are rising.
Last month, the United Nations Security Council voted to approve tougher sanctions on North Korea, in the wake of North Korea’s May 25 underground nuclear tests, and a series of other missile firings.
In a test of those sanctions, the US Navy has been following a North Korean cargo ship, the Kang Nam, that is believed to be carrying weapons exports destined for Myanmar or some other East Asian port. Such exports are banned by the UN proscriptions.
However, on July 1, the Kang Nam turned around and chugged north again in a direction aimed vaguely toward home. At the time of writing, the implications of this turnabout remain unclear.
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2. R Warren | 07.02.09
Isn’t this whole North Korean “crisis” manufactured by Kim Jong-il in order to have his son, Kim Jong-un, serve as an intermediary to “solve” the crisis, thus ensuring his succession as head of the Korean Workers’ Party and de-facto head of the North Korean State? North Korea is not a hereditary monarchy, but it looks as though events are being manipulated by Kim Jong-il to serve that end. Meanwhile, we play into their game and inflame the situation, helping to create a mini-crisis that Kim Jong-il can then [heroically] defuse.
It is a complicated, but nevertheless transparent, game these people are playing.
3. Brian | 07.02.09
What are we waitng for? North Korea is an issue we need to handle before they get out of hand. Push the button and make them glow. We need to send a clear message their actions are not tolerated.
4. bill-e-bob | 07.02.09
north Korea is such a joke. do they really think the united states fears them. it is the backing of china i worry about. this could be, the real bully using the little guy to start a fight and he steps in.
5. Yeheshkhal | 07.02.09
This is very very good, because many in USA are employed in the hi tek defense industry. I’d love to fly a drone! Maybe I’ll buy one of them AC models and practice!
6. John | 07.02.09
Let China, Russia, and Korea know that if North Korea continues it’s nuclear and missile programs, that Japan will have to strengthen it’s military from a defensive force to an offense one. Then they (Japan) might have to think about going nuclear as well. China in particular remembers well what Japan did during the 30’s and 40’s. At the end of WWII Japan still held most of China and Korea.
7. Not American | 07.02.09
I must have missed the part where the US was the only country allowed to have WMD’s and hence control of the world
8. azduncan | 07.02.09
R. Warren is dead-on in analysis. Perhaps the U.S.A. should just broadcast everywhere, that these guys{N.Korea), are punks?
9. Jeosutin | 07.03.09
R Warren - Exactly. I live in South Korea and nobody here seems very impressed by what’s going on. They laugh when I tell them that my mother is asking me to come home, that she thinks it’s dangerous here. While it’s a good photo- the South Korean man watching the North Korean missile- nobody here takes the crisis seriously. A Korean journalist once described the north as a ’socialist monarchy’. I think it’s a good description.
10. Silvia Wilson, in South Korea | 07.03.09
That’s right, R.Warren, there is a struggle going on right now in North Korea to decide who has the most power, the Kim clique or the military generals. Heaven preserve us from the hard-line generals. They are a lot more scary than the Kim group.
Dropping bombs on them would kill thousands of poor long-suffering people, and create a craving for revenge that would produce “the next generation of terrorists.” You can be very sure, Brian, that the leaders would be safely tucked up in bomb shelters; you would never kill the ones you are so keen to crush.
China is too invested in global economics to be willing to back N.K. like they did 60 years ago. What I worry about is the hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury bonds that are held by China.
11. William Brand | 07.03.09
The deployment of the North Korean ICBM will remove the American nuclear umbrella from South Korea and Japan. The USA will not trade LA for Seoul. Once Kim deploys his nukes he need only retreat to a secrete bunker, issue a demand for South Korea’s surrender and become its ruler. He may have to nuke Seoul to make his point however. Any non nuclear weapons in the south’s hands become useless and American troops will stand by helpless. Kim doesn’t mind how many people die as long as he emerges as ruler.
12. felipe j. | 07.16.09
Here we have an open and shut case of having weapons of mass destruction and a threat to use them. In Iraq it was only believed these existed and we all know what happened there. Then in Iran we also have a threat to use wmd. Why is it that we were so quick to invade Iraq who was only believed to be a threat and so hesitant to act on those that have promised to harm Americans and their allies? I believe that defending our nation does not require preempting a potential threat but rather reacting to an attack in the process or one that has already taken place and that is the only non paranoid way to be sure. Also who defines who should and who should not posses high technology weapons? Certainly the authority cannot be expected in all good conciseness to police itself. ( the police investigating itself ). Grow up America and if we the citizens must obey the law then you the leaders ought to give a good example of how to live with one another. We don’t do as we are told, we do as you do.
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1. Beaver Cleaver | 07.02.09
If they fire a missile toward Hawaii we should shoot it down. Maybe we can reverse engineer their advanced rubber band technology and learn something about their high technology. I would destroy their nuclear facilities and, regarding their threats against us, I would say, “Make my day!”