Most Iranians support Ahmadinejad and nuclear power, poll finds
Most Iranians support Ahmadinejad and the country's nuclear program, even as they favor restoring diplomatic relations with the US.
By Dan Murphy | Staff writer 09.23.09
A recent public opinion carried out inside Iran by the non-partisan group World Public Opinion yielded some surprising results, including wide-spread support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the nuclear program he is expected to vigorously defend in a speech at the United Nation’s today.
The telephone poll, overseen by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, found that 64 percent of Iranians in Iran have “a lot of confidence” in Ahmadinejad and that 81 percent are either somewhat or very satisfied with “the process by which the authorities are elected in this country.”
The “confidence” rating closely tracks the controversial official results from the June 12 presidential election: 63 percent voted for Ahmadinejad.
But when respondents were asked who they voted for, only 55 percent said they’d chosen Ahmandinejad. Only 14 percent said they’d voted for Mousavi (compared to 34 percent in the official election results).
And an unusually high 24 percent refused to answer this poll question.
Ahmadinejad’s June reelection was marred by widespread allegations that he had rigged the vote, and led to massive street protests against the outcome. The street action has largely been suppressed by the arrest of hundreds of political prisoners, and there have been persistent allegations of systematic rape and torture of dissidents in government custody.
One well-regarded analysis of the election concluded that there was widespread fraud in favor of Ahmadinejad and it’s a point that supporters of his defeated challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, have repeatedly returned to. But the new poll found that assumed widespread disenchantment with Ahmadinejad and the theocratic state led by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may in fact be more narrow.
The poll found 42 percent of Iranians have “a lot of confidence” in the Guardian Council, the group of clerics that oversee the government, and that 29 percent have “some confidence” in them. And 76 percent of respondents said Ayatollah Khamenei was correct to throw his support behind Ahmadinejad after the election.
The poll found that a majority of Iranians support the country’s pursuit of nuclear power, with 55 percent of respondents saying they support the development of nuclear power plants and 38 percent supporting the development of “both atomic bombs and nuclear power.” On an agreement to stop enriching uranium in an exchange for an end to sanctions, 55 percent said they would oppose such a deal while 31 percent said they would support it. All this despite the expectation of 70 percent of Iranians said that international sanctions will likely be increased if the nuclear program continues.
To be sure, there’s no guarantee that respondents are always honest in telephone polls. In a tightly controlled state such as Iran, some Iranians clearly have reason to fear sanctions from the state for unacceptable views voiced on lines that may be tapped. This was o a landline telephone survey (no cellphones were called), which typically tend to skew the results toward older participants.
Still, the poll also elucidates some unusual positions.
Though 60 percent of Iranians favor full, unconditional negotiations with the US and 63 percent favor a restoration of diplomatic relations, 75 percent also say that imposing American culture on “Muslim society” is a US goal and 81 percent say weakening and dividing the Islamic world is a US goal.
On US military actions, there are also some surprises. Perhaps given the Sunni Taliban’s hatred of Shiites, the predominant Muslim sect in Iran, just 26 percent of Iranians approve of attacks on US troops in Afghanistan. Iranians appear evenly split on the question of Iran “cooperating with the US to combat the Taliban operating in Afghanistan near Iran’s border,” with 43 percent favoring such a course and 41 percent approving.
“My question is what it all means, particularly with regard to the recent election and its aftermath,” former US diplomat and Iran expert Gary Sick wrote on his blog. “And this report is overflowing with anomalies and contradictions.”
<< Mexico: Grungy mariachi plaza gets a makeover. Authenticity at stake? | MainNearly one-third of the more than 1000 Iranians polled in this survey said that their own family’s economic situation had grown worse over the past four years; 45% said that the economic conditions of Iran had grown worse in that same time period. However, when asked “How much of the time do you think you can trust the national government in Tehran to do what is right?” by huge margins they say that they trust the government to take the right decisions most or some of the time (85%), up more than ten percent from the WPO poll in February 2008, and they expressed positive views about every major government institution by a margin of 70-80 percent or more.
We all know that people can hold two contradictory opinions in their heads at the same time. Americans routinely scoff at the Congress but at the same time express confidence in their own senators and representatives. In the Iranian survey, the question of trusting the government was not linked in any way to economic circumstances, so respondents might have been thinking about security or even religious issues when they answered. After all, 57% of the respondents said that Iran was better able to resist foreign pressures than four years earlier.
How likely is it that Iran will develop a nuclear bomb soon?
Comments
2. Mike | 09.23.09
Pure nonesense conducted by Zionists to justify their possible attack on Iranian people.
3. Amir | 09.23.09
This is not reflecting reality as a lot of people are afraid to speak their mind on the phone. They do not trust the person on the other side, so they may not be forthcoming and withhold what they really think.
4. nariman tonkaboni | 09.23.09
unfortunate, while millions of Iranian people are repressed and denied their basic human rights, you come up with this story.
I’m returning froma two year stay in Iran, situation is miserable for majority of people. Very few defend the regime, and those who once were
very supportive are distancing themselves from ultra right theocratic
facists in power. This regime wont last another year, so don’t try to
give it mouth to mouth recisitation.
for the past 30 years these murderous criminals have imprisoned,tortured and killed the best sons and daughters of Iran.
Even last friday prayer “leader” admited that obtaining confessions from prisoners was sacriligious.
For freedom loving people of Iran this is too little too late
how about you?
6. Reza Esfandiari | 09.23.09
The poll supports my analysis that the Chatham House report was deeply flawed and that Ahmadinejad really did win the election fairly.
http://www.wepapers.com/Papers/52959/Report_on_the_Iranian_presidential_election_2009
it also shows that there is a platform for negotiations between Iran and the United States: let us pursue meaningful talks on all outstanding issues.
7. max | 09.24.09
you either have recieved some conpensation from the Iranian regime or you are not following the news in Iran. The hatred of Iranians towards this regime is so high that I can’t imagine how this writer came up with this idea. This news is completely false.
8. student | 09.24.09
Of course the TELEPHONE poll yielded surprising results! Actually, if you have any concept of the political repression and lack of freedom of speech in that country right now, the results would be anything but surprising. Imagine that there are plain-clothed vigilante “guardians of the revolution” running around with bats in their hands. Imagine the regime has free reign to tap your phone lines, track what website you go to, and peruse your email. Imagine not being able to trust your own neighbor to not turn you in if you say something against the regime.
How would YOU answer to a telephone survey asking if you support the president?
9. Simon | 09.24.09
Just how naïve one has to be to expect people in a country, where the security forces can arrest and torture you at will, to tell a telephone poller that they are against the government?
It’s like calling somebody and saying: “Hey, you don’t know me, but I was wondering whether you want to go to prison?” and expecting them to say yes.
10. Fati | 09.24.09
It is unlikely that they are after making a bomb. All they want is a nuclear solution to their growing needs and they should be given this right instead of demonizing the shole case.
12. Bijan | 09.24.09
WTF???
How much Ahmadinejad paied you to write this crap?????
Over 80% of Iranians HATE Ahmadinejad.
and the 20% who support him are not necessarily in favor of NUKE. Most of them are poor farmers who have received cash a few months before the “election”.
STOP LYING!!!!!
14. Johnson | 09.24.09
This poll makes a lot of sense.
People who are too wired and engulfed by the green movement are too suffocated by that atmosphere to analyze things in an unbiased way.
This poll is by a legitimate American institution at a top 10 university program. They have conducted several polls in the past and research shows they are excellent at predicting events and also that their work is highly reputable.
The fear factor argument does not hold either. Why would the majority of the people say that the guardian council should have remained unbiased if they were afraid of government reaction? Why would they respond positively to relations with the US? Why would they say that sanctions have had an effect on them and that the sanctions would increase if Iran continued enrichment? These are all against the stances and slogans of regime…some of them fundamental. If they were afraid to answer, they would have answered those in a way the regime would have found acceptable. The reality is, when we look at all the questions and how the people responded, we find that fear could not have been a culprit in the results.
Even if we say that the poll results for the question of whether Ahmadinejad is the legitimate are inflated, by how much could they be inflated? 10%? 15%? 81% of the people believe that Ahmadinejad is the legitimate president. That is a number that even with the imagined inflation would mean the majority of people believe him to be the legitimate president.
What happened post election was brutal and the images are burned into our brains. But we should not denounce sound academic results if they go against our favor.
15. Nima | 09.25.09
If I happened to be visiting Iran and someone asked me about my political beliefs over the phone or in person; I would try to either dodge the question or give them the answer that I think they want to hear, since I know the idiots running our country do not respect my right to freedom of thought (or any other human rights for that matter), and I would rather live another day than face torture or imprisonment.
16. Paris | 09.25.09
First you should do a little study of the Iranian culture before you jump in there with your phone calls. this is a plane and simple case of ignorance. Do you see how people vanish in broad day light, do see how people are tortured and killed then burned where their bodies are found in desert for asking for their right in a frud election, and for freedom????? Then how the hell you expect them to say on the phone that yes we do not support the islamic regime of iran. This is stupidity and you know it.
18. John C. | 10.14.09
I think the comments attacking the author are unfair - he did not conduct the poll.
However, I do think he has been extremely naive in terms of how honestly he seems to think people will answer in a police state - an *increasingly technologically sophisticated police state.
Iranians increasingly take it for granted that mobile calls are not secure - not when its widely reported that those arrested for demonstrating have been confronted with print outs of their text messages, or that Nokia is facing an informal boycott Iranians for having provided this technology to the state.
If mobiles are regarded as this insecure, do you think ANYONE will trust an anonymous caller on the landline? Most will assume this is some kind of loyalty test and respond accordingly.
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1. ramin | 09.23.09
This poll is BS! I am Iranian and I live in Dubai and I can honestly say that the people that you called in Iran were probably too scared to say anything other than support Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.