New estimates on global warming
By Peter N. Spotts | Staff Writer for The Christian Science Monitor/ October 10, 2008 edition
The global climate could warm by 2.5 degrees F. by the end of the century, even if countries undertake stringent efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, according to a new study from a team of climate scientists in the United States, China, Japan, and five European nations.
This figure is more than twice as high as the level cited in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), when it estimated how much global warming could occur even if nations froze emission at year-2000 levels.
The new estimate is a byproduct of a study the team conducted to gauge the effect of different emission-reduction efforts on Earth’s climate by 2100. The greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios that the IPCC typically uses don’t include the effects of government policies that directly tackle climate change, the researchers say. Instead, the IPCC looks at policies on population growth, the economy, and other slightly tangential policies that affect global warming. But, the team adds, a lot of progress has been made developing emissions scenarios that take climate-change-specific policies into account.
Using a selection of these new scenarios, the team calculates that countries could hold global average temperature increases to between 0.9 degrees F. and 7.9 degrees F. above 1990 levels by 2100, depending on how aggressive emission-reduction policies are. Those figures are 0.5 to 6.1 degrees F. lower than the increases one might expect if no mitigation policies are adopted.
The results are based in part on several simplifying assumptions, the team acknowledges. For instance, the models assume that policies are adopted globally, economy-wide, and without regard to their chance of actually being passed into law, nationally or internationally.
Still, the team says, the results show that “ambitious efforts can significantly reduce global warming” and that the “residual warming” of 2.5 degrees underscores the need for efforts to not only slow climate change, but also to adapt to the changes that are unavoidable. The results appear in this week’s issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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Comments
2. Brad Arnold | 10.11.08
I would like to announce the arrival of a clean, cheap, abundant, and portable form of energy production that will make burning fossil fuel obsolete. Wind a solenoidal coil around a magnet, and apply electricity. The magnetic field is amplified, and the magnetic gradient can be exploited to yield more electricity than was used powering the solenoidal coil. A private California company called Magnetic Power Inc ( http://www.magneticpowerinc.com ) exceeded breakeven (i.e. produced more electricity than it used) with a prototype in late 2004. Any question of fraud will be erased when they put their product on the market later this year. By the way, I am not associated with this company, but would sure love to buy one of their forever power generators!
3. Eve | 10.11.08
I am confused with your numbers. You start saying the planet could warm by 2.5 degrees F by 2100. At present the planet’s average global temperature is 57 degrees F. A 2.5 degree F increase would take the temperature to 59.5, warmer than 1998 but still cooler than the Medieval Warm periods temperature of 62 degrees F. But you add that these stategies could hold the increase down to 7.9 degrees F over 1990 levels.
This does not make any sense but then neither does the IPCC.
4. Phillip Huggan | 10.12.08
Eve, post a link where Medieval Warming Period is stated to be 5F warmer than present. This is an absurd evil oil lie. See the temperature chart on the wiki that aggregates different temperature records, for instance. We are well beyond any warming civlization has ever experienced.
5. Ragnar | 10.16.08
Phillip; go back to your Kool-Aid. Back around 1000 AD the tree line was 100 miles North of where it is now; grapes were being grown in Newfoundland and northern Scotland; pack ice was non-existent in the Arctic, and the scandinavians in Iceland had incredibly successful dairy farms and wheat fields.
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1. (MADHUR SHARMA) | 10.11.08
RESPECTED SIR ,
THIS IS TO PUT TO YOUR KIND NOTICE THAT I MADHUR SHARMA , STUDENT OF B.TECH BIOTECHNOLOGY 4TH YEAR HAS BEEN WORKING ON MY PROJECT ON GLOBAL WARMING SINCE 14 MONTHS . THIS PROJECT IS NOT A COLLEGE PROJECT BUT IS SOLELY MINE WHICH WAS STARTED KEEPING IN MIND THE DISASTROUS EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING.
AFTER GATHERING AMPEL OF KNOWLEDGE FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES AND A BIT OF RESEARCH I HAVE DISCOVERED SOME BRILLIANT CONCEPTS WHICH CAN CHANGE THE FACE OF LIFE..
THE METHODOLOGY IS VERY SIMPLE AND CAN BE EASILY MADE UNDERSTAND . I AM SURE THAT MY CONCEPTS ARE STILL UNTOUCHED AND NONE OF THE SCIENTISTS AND RESEARCHERS KNOW ABOUT THEM.
I JUST NEED ONE CHANCE TO PROVE IT ,JUST ONE PLATFORM TO SHOW IT.
THE UNIQENESS AND SPECIALITY OF MY CONCEPT/IDEA IS THAT :
IT INVOVES THE PROCESS OF REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING WITHOUT
MAKING ANY CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE, AND ALSO WITHOUT REDUCING POLLUTION (LIKE ASKING PEOPLE TO PLANT MORE AND MORE TREES AND TO REDUCE CO2 EMISSION IS NOT REQUIRED).
MY CONCEPT IS SOLELY BASED ON LAWS OF PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY.
I HOPE THAT YOU WILL HELP ME OUT TO BRING UP MY IDEA.
THANKING YOU IN ANTICIPATION
YOURS TRUELY ,
MADHUR SHARMA
AMITY INSTITUTE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY,NOIDA
U.P – 201301
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