Blu-ray feeling blue?
By Andrew Heining | 10.29.08
Is Blu-ray dead?
The high definition video disc that toppled HD-DVD to win the so-called “format war” in February isn’t catching on as well as analysts, retailers, and manufacturers had hoped. And with the 2008 holiday buying season just around the corner, retailers are slashing prices.
The Wall Street Journal has the story:
Entry-level Blu-ray players have dropped to below $230 at major retailers including Target Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Best Buy Co. Some experts predict that promotional prices may fall below $150 on Black Friday, the big shopping day after Thanksgiving. Earlier this year, most Blu-ray players retailed for $400 or so.
But even with players selling for $150 and a recent bullish report on HDTV purchases despite the current economic climate, some say Blu-ray still won’t catch on.
The problem is with the perceived advantage of Blu-ray over standard DVDs. ZDNET’s Robin Harris points out that “upconverting” DVD players give viewers video quality that rivals that of Blu-ray for a lower entry fee, and without the need to buy new discs.
“Suddenly, for $100, your average consumer can put good video on their HDTV using standard DVDs,” he writes.
He goes on to call out the Blu-ray Disc Association for being asleep at the wheel by sticking to rigid licensing fees and pricing structures. Asked about why his company’s popular computers don’t yet carry Blu-ray drives, Apple CEO Steven Jobs called the technology “a bag of hurt.”
It’s great to watch the movies, but the licensing of the tech is so complex, we’re waiting till things settle down and Blu-ray takes off in the marketplace.
But perhaps a greater challenge to Blu-ray’s success than even its licensing troubles is the recent coming-of-age of streaming on-demand video – some of it high-definition, on both TVs and computers. The Journal has more:
<< Lost biblical copper mine found? | MainCable-TV, phone and satellite providers as well as electronics makers are still piecing together the infrastructure and alliances necessary to offer a large library of downloadable and video-on-demand movies and TV shows in high definition. But as soon as that happens, “Blu-ray is done,” predicted Rob Enderle, an analyst who advises companies including Microsoft Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Inc. on technology trends. “Retailers have every reason to be worried.”
Comments
2. Narukami | 10.30.08
Another point overlooked by the “up-conversion” argument is the audio quality. A Blu Ray disc has uncompressed audio while a standard DVD must compress the audio in order to fit it into the limited space offed on the regular DVD disc. Up-converting players do nothing to enhance audio quality. This also holds true for the HD programs provided by download, cable and other broadcast sources.
Now it is true that the price for content on Blu Ray needs to come down. Standard DVD discs also started at a very high retail price but once they fell to under $20 per title the format moved quickly to dominate the home video market. The same will happen with Blu Ray once “They” lower the average retail price to under $20
If you care about the quality of your movie viewing experience then Blu Ray is the only way to go.
3. Greg | 10.30.08
VOD is an alternative option, but it will not fully displace the market for Blu-ray. There are people who do not have an internet connection capable of VOD or their service provider has limits to data downloads. Others will not connect their devices to the internet as has been demonstrated by the failure of every internet-capable appliance other than computers.
This last fact is a problem not only for VOD, but also Blu-ray. Customers prefer a device that works the first time and every time and not one that requires firmware updates.
Blu-ray manufacturers have not done a good job of courting the masses. The common person cares about cost, load times, and reliability, not internet-accessed content.
4. blake | 10.30.08
Up-converting doesn’t even begin to rival blu ray, I’ve been seeing the same quote in many different articles and blogs. It seems like more people are jumping on the “blu ray is dead” bandwagon daily. Skepticism is fine, just make sure you’re not spreading ignorance.
5. Tony | 10.30.08
Another thing that has kept buyers away is that they were waiting for full profile 2.0 compliance players.
I have to agree that the content price is the key. In my case I stopped buying movie DVDs a long time ago and only buy the occasional TV season if I have not seen it before. My schedule do not let me watch all the movies and tv shows I want to see so I rarely, if ever, repeat a program. If you think the different between DVD and blue ray movie prices is big please take a look at the TV seasons. A few months after release I buy seasons as low as 20 bucks on DVD. On avg that is over 15 hrs of entertainment. Compare that to a 2 hr movie on blue ray for $25 or to the same season on blue ray for about 60 dollars. No thanks, upconvertion with sub-par audio is enough for me.
That been said, I may buy a blue ray 2.0 profile player when they are below $200 (with internal memory, not the ones that require an SD card) for movie rental purposes.
And it is not that I am cheap or poor. B
6. SLC | 10.30.08
Are the majority of people obsessed enough with video and audio quality that they will feel compelled to invest in Blu-Ray? I, for one, am not. And frankly, DVD’s suck. I hope they will become obsolete and that streaming video will take its place. I am sick of getting DVD’s from NetFlix that are scratched up and unwatchable. This is an inherent flaw of DVD’s, HD or no HD. Buying them is a waste of money. Broadband technologies and capacities are going to be continuously improving to allow for more and more streaming.
7. Salmonerd | 10.30.08
Blu-ray is the Internet. Once compelling apps are offered that consumers truly enjoy, Blu-ray should then stand head and shoulders above DVD and enjoy a more healthy adoption rate. Awesome 50 Gig picture/audio, with Internet features will cross the chasm… Someday soon right?
8. Karl Ian Bauer | 10.31.08
We made the jump and are very happy with our Blu-Ray player, 7.1 audio system and 1080p projector. Blu-Ray audio sends almost as many bits per second to each speaker that DVDs send to all six speakers combined! There is no comparison. The Blu-Ray viewing experience blows DVDs out of the water. However it does require a substantial investment/reinvestment in equipment. I think Blu-Ray will eventually take over, it will just take a while.
9. Dario | 11.14.08
Some of the comments here are from people who have to much money and not enough brains. There are way to many problems with blu ray, DRM, Load times, Disks that won`t play, calling home to Sony and supplying them with you viewing habits, price of the films, quality of the transfers, ohhh my god, the list just goes on and on ….
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1. CaW | 10.29.08
BDs marketshare for current new releases is already routinely hitting double digits.
Now rumors are surfacing of sub $200 players on Black Friday.
If the content providers follow suit and reduce the retail price on software by $5 to $10 then BD will do just fine.
Another factor that always gets overlooked is that the number of HDTVs installed still is growing. So BD will grow along with it. Its not like when DVD came out. It was basically compatible with 99% of the TVs in use.
Upconversion — FACT: A DVD only has about 350k pixels of information/frame. A BD has 2M per frame. Sorry but no amount of upconversion is going to magically create an additional 1.65M pixels to turn DVD into a true High Definition source.
Downloads — It’s the service providers dirty little secret that their service and the pipes to your home are not big enough to support true HD delivery. There is a reason that there so called ‘HD’ downloads are roughly about the same size and datarate of what is on a standard DVD.
BD is the future if you truly want a HIGH QUALITY and a TRUE HD source.