New poll shows McCain - Obama in virtual tie
By Jimmy Orr | 08.19.08
A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows John McCain has overcome a 12 point deficit to pull into a virtual dead heat with Barack Obama.
The poll, released Tuesday, shows Obama leading McCain by a 45 - 43 percent margin which falls into the three percent margin of error.
What’s behind the move? The director of the poll credits negative attacks launched by the Republican’s campaign.
The McCain team rolled out a number of ads in the past month displaying Obama as a lightweight, inexperienced celebrity-type who, according to the tagline, “isn’t ready to lead.”
Obama’s favorable rating dropped 11 points during the period falling from 59 percent to 48 percent while McCain’s numbers remained constant.
Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, last week told the Christian Science Monitor that the McCain ads, which label Obama a celebrity, were successful because of the way it connected criticism to a perceived flaw.
“Personal criticism of your opponent is almost always going to cause a backlash unless you can find a way to link it to a policy matter,” Schnur said. “And these celebrity ads, particularly the follow up ones, have done an outstanding job of linking criticisms personally to Obama’s policy credentials.”
“If they would have continued to run ads with Paris and Britney, it would have trivialized the point they were trying to make,” he continued. “But they used the two girls to grab people’s attention and then shifted in the next ads to a more direct link between Obama’s own celebrity and his lack of policy chops.”
Those polled said they would have more confidence in John McCain during a foreign affairs crisis. Seventy-seven percent feel McCain would “deal wisely” with the situation compared to 63 percent for Barack Obama. A full one-third of particpants have concerns about Obama’s patriotism while nine percent have questions about McCain’s.
It’s not all bad news for Obama, however. Independents still favor Obama by a sizable margin - 47 percent to 36 percent.
And with the Democratic convention only days away, Obama could stand to receive a post-convention shot in the arm.
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2. JesusTaughtPacifism | 08.20.08
Are American ever stupid to fall for negative ads. McCain has set a record in that regard.
The real new to assess is that McCain was too belicose about Georgia and is likely to start a new war over dumb things like that. (Remember, US, the next war you make may be mankind’s last.)
He also cheated, coming in late during Warren’s debate. Warren, if he was bright enough, should have immediately disqualified him and given him no air time. Do you think McCain can keep his appointments with the head of China and Japan and Russia and England? Not if past performace is an indicator of future performance.
If you vote McCain, America, you’ll get the nothing you deserve.
3. Rudy | 08.20.08
Never underestimate the numbers of uninformed americans.
The republicans never do and that’s why they are still a viable party.
4. Lucas | 08.20.08
Uhh, Biased much? The celebrity ads were a cheap shot, a low blow. Mccain not only had to try and insult Obama without any factual support besides Obama is more popular, but he decided to insult two young American woman while he was at it, women who don’t have anything to do with this election.
Clearly, the Christian Science Monitor is as biased as all Christians tend to be, Conservative.
5. George H | 08.20.08
My fellow Americans, think before you vote. Are Obama’s values like yours? Does he really think it’s stil 2004? He acts like it. What’s with that coky smirk? Do you want YOUR paycheck reduced? (because of his vow to raise taxes).
6. kristoffer | 08.20.08
This election is as fun to watch as a good basketball game. I think it will be decided in a dramatic fourth quarter after runs by both sides. The candidates will most likely see-saw in popularity until the election. I also see this as a game without referees. Good luck to either side getting a foul recognized by your opponent, even for obvious attacks, or attack adds. You’re not going to get the call, even if noses are obviously bloodied.
7. Bill | 08.20.08
Nobody really wants Obama. There is just so much craziness out there against Bush that the perverts don’t know who else to vote for. Craziness out there in Dem country!!! What are they thinking? Hide bound and for what purpose?
8. nobama08 | 08.20.08
Obama is a cult of personality suit. He’ll say anything to get elected.
I’m glad people are waking up… too bad my country is this stupid.. so many people voting for him. We’re doomed.
9. Mark | 08.20.08
Unfortunately it seems Americans are very easily swayed by advertising and cheap personal slander rather than dealing with the real issues.I hope that the campaign starts dealing with the very serious issues facing the US and the world—-a good place to start is here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC1A8dLkRWM
10. Louise Harris | 08.20.08
The stats of the survey are not reported. How many young people were surveyed? Are voters contacted who only have cell phones? It is facile to say that negative ads “caused ” this result when a Faith and Values forum just took place where McCain was speaking to the chailr.
11. Tess | 08.20.08
I have studied both candidates and cannot come up with one ‘good’ reason for Americans to doubt Senator Obama. People keep talking about McCain’s experience? If he has foreign policy experience, I haven’t seen a single thing he’s said about the subject that wasn’t flubbed, gaffed and misspoken.
His ‘experience’ means nothing when he keeps getting the facts messed up and has a scary idea about ‘winning’ at all costs. Obama, like any other president his age, has a quick intellect and the desire to make concrete changes in the U.S; and, can learn on his feet anything he needs to. I’ve heard him talk about Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. with knowledge and common sense.
If it’s true that Americans are even ‘thinking’ about voting for McCain/Bush, I’m afraid to say that my last shred of respect for my ‘American cousins’ will be gone. We were so proud years ago when the states (as Canadians affectionately call America) refused the Metric System. We got stuck with it; having to learn a whole new way, but you guys stuck to your guns and said,’No’. We later criticized ourselves for not doing more to stop it from coming here. I know that not all of you would be voting McCain, but those who do are delusional in my book. I hope for the sake of the states and your standing in the world, that you will have the courage to look away from the blinding light of deception and greed that the McCain camp offers and look instead at making a ‘real’ change in the guard.
Peace to all…
12. Dale | 08.20.08
I can’t support Barack Obama and it has nothing to do with one of the least negative ads by Republicans. I am insulted by the puerile positions and arguments that Sen. Obama makes in the attempt to convince us that he is both qualified and that he loves this country. I use the word ‘insulted’ because he appears to think that the greater American majority are a bunch of insipid individuals that can’t read the stitches on a fast ball (that stutters and stammers a lot). I don’t think the guy looks deliberative when he stammers as much as I think that he wants to make his lie or concealment of what he really thinks appear not so obvious. He hates the use of any non-euphamistic words that tell it like it is, and when a man displays cowardice over the use of words and direct language doesn’t give me the confidence that he has the juevos to deal with real issues. I have a strong negative image of Barack Obama and it has nothing to do with any ad I’ve seen here in the home state of his mother (Kansas).
13. Joe | 08.20.08
In my view, experience does count when electing a president. We’re electing a commander in chief, not a celebrity in chief.
14. WhiteSoul | 08.20.08
Today’s Christians are lazy. Look at the political platform - ProLife and AntiGay. Not only do these require no sacrifice on the part of Christians, they are based on judging others negatively.
Jesus showed us to have compassion for the poor, heal the sick, and devote ourselves to God. When we are asked to have increased taxes to improve social standards in the country or to allow everyone access to healthcare, listen to who whines the most… The Christian right! How ironic… The group that preaches tithing their income to the church for just these purposes is unwilling to allow our government to do just that.
As a Christian, I have been disenfranchised by this. I think the current Christian platform is an insult to my rich religion. It was brilliantly created years ago by politicians looking to capture a base of constituents for voting purposes. They wanted to use issues that cost the government nothing and that didn’t require sacrifice on the part of the voter. It worked, but it also corrupted the religion.
Those Christians that vote for candidates based on abortion rights and gay rights better realize that they are being used. Please open your eyes to the reality of this.
15. Ab | 08.20.08
When I look at question to Obama on the news there is never any real answer. What does he stand for? When I look for question to McCain, I can’t find it because the newspaper does not report it. My city has one newspaper and it is quite liberal and only uses AP for its source, and AP supports anything wrong or immoral. When I look at criticisms of McCain, they border on insanity and are baseless. When I look at responses to critisisms of Obama I see vagueness or waffling. As far as ‘celebrity’ if it did not hit home (even though it is not a personal attack), there would not have been all of the crying. I still am offended that a low level Senator thought that he had the right to negotiate with the enemies of the United States and possibly undercut what the government is doing. I believe the debates will bring a lot to light.
16. MC | 09.12.08
I can say a lot folks but all I am going to say right now is that America is still so racist… no I am not African American but I do know that the American people are scared to vote for a black president. Let’s be real with ourselves people… I am not going to go into it but wake up America it is time for a change… Obama 08!
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Jimmy Orr has worked in politics for the majority of his professional career working for two U.S. Senators, two Governors and one President. Most recently, Orr served as White House Spokesman and Internet Director for President George W. Bush and Special Advisor to Governor Schwarzenegger for Internet Communications.
David Cook is Washington bureau chief of The Christian Science Monitor and host of the Monitor's newsmaker breakfasts. He was the Monitor's editor from 1994 to 2001. Cook is a graduate of Principia College, served in the U.S. Army, was a Bagehot Fellow at Columbia University, and is a member of the Gridiron Club, Washington's oldest journalistic organization.
1. kristoffer | 08.20.08
This election is just like a good basketball game, it’s going to be decided in a dramatic fourth quarter. And, this is a game with no referees. Forget about calling a “foul” on your opponent. He’s not giving it to you, even if your nose is obviously bleeding.