(Jake Turcotte)
Obama gets decent post-convention bounce
By Jimmy Orr | 09.01.08
The spinning began even before the convention started. If the John McCain people were right, following Barack Obama’s acceptance speech, the post-convention bounce would be higher than a basketball bounced on the moon.
The McCain camp released a memo stating they were expecting Barack Obama to receive a 15 point bounce following the convention.
“On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark,” the memo stated. “The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama’s place in history. … This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls. … We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.”
The Obama camp countered that this was all about raising expectations so if they failed to receive such a boost, political observers could say the Democratic Convention was a bust.
“Presidential races are close, and we expect this one to be no different,” said Obama campaign aide Robert Gibbs. “But they should figure out how to spin the fact that John McCain owns a dozen houses and thinks the fundamentals of our economy are strong before trying to spin our convention.”
In fact, the 15 point boost was not realized. It wasn’t likely. Since 1964, the average bounce for a Democratic nominee is just over seven points. In the first three-day tracking report completed since the convention was completed, Gallup shows a 49 percent to 43 percent advantage for Obama, which equates to a four point bounce.
“Comparing Obama’s current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.”
The four point increase is on par with what President George W. Bush received last time and a marked increase over Senator John Kerry’s bounce (zero).
Gallup also suggests that McCain’s increase from 41 percent to 43 percent translates into a vice presidential selection bounce.
The Obama campaign say they don’t pay attention to national polls anyway. Last week, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said they focus on just two things: the key battleground states (they’ve identified 18 of them) and making sure that Obama supporters get out to vote.
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2. sean | 09.01.08
i grew up in a republican household, was ecstatic when i learned about libertarians, and now am voting democratic. Why? because we need a smart, well-educated, classy president. and the only one on offer is Barack.
3. Jimmie Griffin | 09.01.08
It’s very interesting the differences in three other polls taken after Palin was named as McCain’s VP. CBS had Obama 8 points ahead at 49 to 41, CNN newsweek had it Obama 48 to 47, and finally USA Today Obama at 50 to 43 for McCain/Palin. It looks like a better bump than Bush or Kerry in 2004 and it all came after McCain stole the news cycle with Palin’s desparate nomination as his running mate. Obama has proven through a long grulling campaign and massive negative attacks from McCain, he is best qualified to lead us into the future and best to handle the economy and be Commandering Chief. VOTE! OBAMA/BIDEN 08.
4. FEBRA MILES | 09.01.08
It has been very interesting reading about this campaign. I am trying to understand what is McCain thinking. I would like to think that the President elect would have more concern about our country than A few votes. Now McCain had my attention but he has shown under pressure he panic…to bring aboard Palin,someone he apparently knows nothing about {with all her attention grabbing baggage}.Okay it may be easy to juggle being a mother,wife, soccer mom,and governor of this small area of Alaska. But to be second in command??? GOP how do you fix this one… 2am baby starts to cry, 230am grandbaby starts crying…3am RED PHONE rings… will she be ready. or passed out.
5. murgo | 09.01.08
These polls don’t mean much. Who are they polling? What is their political affiliation? If you poll a bunch of Obama supporters, of course they are going to say that Obama is great. I wish someone would poll me. I thought Obama’s Thursday night speech was lacking in enthusiasm, in vision, in substantive information, and solid facts. So far in this campaign Obama has not impressed me as a person or a politician. His friends (Bernadette Doerhn and Rev. Wright, among others) are scary. I do not want a puppet of the liberal left in the White House, and Michelle Obama, despite being sent to charm school after her many gaffes, is not the gracious sort that would be a good first lady. Forget the Obamas. They’re going nowhere.
6. Ron | 09.01.08
The Republican Party is being held hostage by the Religious Right . This puppet has practically ruined Palin’s family. If he knew that Palin’s daughter was pregnant, he should have reconsidered his decision to offer her the opportunity to be his running mate. Palin would have emerged in 4 years and become a power house. As it stands, we now have America questioning her capabilities as a mother. In order for this ticket to win, she has to convince the American people that she is a great mother and not a distraction.
7. Matthew | 09.01.08
I have voted Republican, Democrat and independent at various times in my life, which I suppose makes me a moderate. That said, I’m more than a little weirded out by the number or Republican/conservatives that I see posting shrill denouncements of a Obama “bounce.” They seem to think if they scream it loud enough…if they can just somehow drowned out any suggestion otherwise…it will become true.
The bizarre thing about that, of course, is that it is irrelevant anyway. Convention bounce seldom is any kind of indicator regarding who will win the election.
The ability and compulsion of right-wingers to make mountains out of mole-hills (who CARES if Obama moved in the same political circles are Ayres…HE isn’t Ayres!), and mole-hills out of mountains (McCain’s voting record in relationship to Bush policies DOES matter) is a primary reason I am voting Democrat this year.
I believe McCain would have been a great president in 2000. The Republican party screwed up in not nominating him. It is eight years too late, and there are no do-overs.
8. jon | 09.01.08
I think part of the bump is related to one issue - - McCain’s Judgment.
I’ve always thought experience to be overrated… take Dick Cheney & Donald Rumsfeld, for example.
Obama really hammered on McCain’s judgment, during his acceptance speech, which many millions watched. Then the next day, McCain proved his point, by selecting Gov Palin, who has no knowledge of Domestic or Foreign Policy (notice they are shielding her from interviews). And he chose her, without fully vetting her.
McCain is in a lode/lose situation now.
If Gov Palin doesn’t resign from the ticket soon, it’s going to present problems for McCain. If she does resign, it’ll create more problems, since for the first time, the Media is actually scrutinizing the McCain Campaign. Up until now, while Obama has received more coverage, he’s been under intense scrutiny, despite what GOPers like to spin.
So, I suspect, Gov Palin is going to be programmed rather quickly, to get her up to speed on issues, for the debate in early October.
But, the bottomline… McCain is not of Presidential caliber, judging by his poor judgment. I was actually leaning toward him, at one point… but, his petty negative attacks on Obama, really put me off. And, now I see he can’t be trusted to intelligently consider issues, in order to make well-thought out decisions.
9. John | 09.01.08
Palin’s family does not practice family values so how can we possibly expect our daughters to look up to her? We need leaders that set good examples not dishonest Palin who is under investigation herself. The base is crumbling.
10. Jones | 09.01.08
I really expect higher bounce for Obama post-convention.
The number from polls is kind of unreal to me… but maybe in the end, it’s really the battleground states and which supporters are more enthustiastic to get out and vote.
11. mel bernstine | 09.02.08
CNN polls yesterday showed no bounce at all for Obama after the convention. 49 to 48%.
12. Charles Carreon | 09.02.08
There’s nothing like hearing 90,000 people cheering to make you feel like you are on the winning side. Although it’s the stealth aspect of the Obama campaign, he has brought the most disenfranchised segment of the electorate, African-Americans, into the first truly “big tent” that the Democrats have ever opened up. This is the key to victory.
13. John | 09.02.08
McCain is in trouble. The election is only 60 days away and he is only ahead in MONTANA by a single point. Bush carried Montana by over 20 points in 2004. North Dakota and South Dakota are also very close. Bad news for you John McBush.
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Jimmy Orr has worked in politics for the majority of his professional career working for two U.S. Senators, two Governors and one President. Most recently, Orr served as White House Spokesman and Internet Director for President George W. Bush and Special Advisor to Governor Schwarzenegger for Internet Communications.
David Cook is Washington bureau chief of The Christian Science Monitor and host of the Monitor's newsmaker breakfasts. He was the Monitor's editor from 1994 to 2001. Cook is a graduate of Principia College, served in the U.S. Army, was a Bagehot Fellow at Columbia University, and is a member of the Gridiron Club, Washington's oldest journalistic organization.
1. Sheldon | 09.01.08
Barack Obama is right to focus on the battleground states, and not the tracking polls weeks before the presidential election.That is how Obama will win in November.