Another poll shows same result: Obama, McCain tied
By Jimmy Orr | 09.09.08
It appeared as though we could go five minutes without a new poll being released. Wrong. A new poll is out and the results are the same.
It’s a tie. Barack Obama and John McCain are deadlocked according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama does have a one point lead (47 percent to 46 percent) but with the 3.3 percent margin of error, the race is a toss-up.
Palin excitement
As noted earlier, the more you dig into a poll the more you can find. For example, the “enthusiasm factor” — which is how excited the voters are for a candidate — shows big movement for the McCain-Palin team.
The enthusiasm factor thus far for John McCain has been lackluster, especially when compared to Obama’s supporters. However, with the addition of Sarah Palin to McCain’s ticket, excitement has increased significantly — going up three times the amount from just one month ago.
But compared to the enthusiasm that Obama supporters have for their candidate, McCain’s numbers still pale in comparison — 55 percent for Obama to 34 percent for McCain.
Women wobble
Another notable excerpt from the poll is the movement among women. An earlier poll, the Washington Post/USA Today poll, showed a sizable shift among white women to the McCain-Palin ticket — some 20 percentage points.
There is similar movement - not quite as dramatic - in this poll. It shows Obama’s lead among women shrinking from 14 points a month ago to 4 points currently. The poll also shows McCain actually leading Obama among women in the 18-49 age group by three points.
The pollsters credit Sarah Palin for the increase. And although Democratic pollster Peter Hart compared Palin’s meteoric rise in the polls to hitting a “gusher,” he warns of a possible quick burnout.
He recalled a similar bounce after Walter Mondale unveiled Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate in 1984. “The faster they rise, the steeper they descend.”
McBush
As for the “agent of change” argument, Obama seems to be winning in that category. The poll shows McCain having a difficult time distancing himself from President George W. Bush
Seventy-four percent believe McCain would closely follow Bush’s programs and policies. That’s virtually unchanged from August, when 77 percent believed that about the GOP nominee.
It is unlikely the Obama campaign is going to back off on this strategy. Earlier today, the Obama campaign released a new commercial mocking the “maverick image” the McCain campaign is playing up with the seemingly ever-present “McCain voted with Bush 90 percent of the time” tagline (see video below).
<< Obama, McCain spar over pigs and lipstick | MainComments
2. Brian | 09.09.08
The 90% statement is one of the most annoying lines of this campaign. Of course McCain will have a high correlation with the Bush Administration, they are both Republican and are obviously going to share some sort of ideological common ground. Yeah sure maybe if it was lower then the maverick line might be stronger but then he would probably never have made it this far. The 10% says a lot more than the 90% does.
3. matt | 09.09.08
The recent polls are problematic, since they equalize Dems and Reps, even though there are 11 million more registered Dems than Reps in America. Still, McCain definitely got a bounce from his convention and selection of Palin. But people don’t know Palin yet. She is against abortion in all cases, including rape and incest. She belongs to a church that teaches we are living in the “end times” (which they say is a good thing). She believes the war in Iraq is God’s plan. She believes a new oil pipeline in Alaska is part of God’s plan. She was for the “Bridge to Nowhere” before she was against it (and lied about her role in stopping it). She does not believe global warming is caused by mankind. She won’t answer questions or accept interviews. What else does she think? McCain says he’s a maverick against his own party, but it’s absolutely clear he picked Palin to appease the most conservative extremists in his party. He has no idea how to move the country forward and out of the mess we’re in.
4. Mark | 09.09.08
Women are very wrong if they (women) only vote for women (Palin)…
LOOK AT THE PAST! REPUBLICANS STARTED THE WAR IN IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN… PUSH UP OIL PRICES… AIRLINES, CARS INDUSTRIES IN TROUBLE… INFLATION IS GOING UP… UNEMPLOYMENT RATE GOING UP… HOUSING BUST…
ENOUGH! IS ENOUGH WITH REPUBLICANS. I WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA = DEMOCRATS
5. doug | 09.09.08
Your polls don’t matter.
The only polls that matter are the ones in November that vote for Electoral College votes.
If the election were held today, Obama wins easily with Electoral College votes, and a small majority of the popular vote. Look at all the states in contention, parse them any way you want, and Obama still wins.
Bye, John.
6. Matt | 09.10.08
Democrats, we need to keep flushing out the lies and stick to the issues. The facts speak for themselves. Forge ahead, go to the library, the DMV, get voter registration forms and GIVE THEM to your friends. Make sure you and your friends vote, even if you’re in a blue state, especially if you’re in a red state. Democracy only survives if we vote and this Democracy needs Democrats.
7. Frank | 09.10.08
Why should this surprise me?
America voted for the Flake Bush twice and the Californians voted in body-builder Schwarzenegger as Governor! That shows “some” intelligence! Or not!!!!????
I guess the Americans just like to have Bums as their leaders. I don’t think that most of them realize that the bill ultimately has to be paid for by them, the working class that is being screwed by these “leaders”.
8. michael | 09.10.08
So with the big bounce and all the Mcain supporters today, the right wing base having been fired up, are they REALLY ready for what they pray for?
The right wing base necessary for Mcain to win?
Roe vs. Wade? If they actually raise up and thus get progress on their platform, and change the judges, and defeat RoeVWade, then they must have a deterrent to abortion. That means for their platform to have teeth, there must be a strong penalty for abortion. Just what will that be? Life in prison; Death sentence for women and doctors too?
Talk about government getting in the way of the people; what hypocrisy!
Gee, I guess none of those Sarah screaming hoards, men and women, don’t plan on getting in a sitution where “choice” may be desirable. Palin herself had choice. How will we all like when there is none?
9. michael | 09.10.08
sorry for wavering from the point here of the article.
thanks for this information… my anger is obvious from my prior posting.
but in regard to the polls showing Mcain doing so well, it reminds me of how wacky things are in this country.
10. JohnSet | 09.10.08
McCain is trying to glom on to the idea that his ticket represents change. Unfortunately, Gov. Palin was for the “Bridge to Nowhere” before she was against it. She collected hundreds of millions of dollars in Federal Earmarks before she was against these too.
The Obama ticket represents the change that can straighten out American’s precarious economic situation … using common sense instead of Right-Wing Talking Points.
It will be hard work getting America moving in the right direction again but Obama and Biden are up to the task.
11. lars siler | 09.10.08
So in response to McCain’s latest despicable ad -Obama should counter with a truthful ad–John”Maverick” McCain voted against the last CHIPS bill in Congress-a bill that would have provided needed Health insurance for 2year-old-babies and such with diseases such as Down’s Syndrome and Juvenile Diabetes Voted to take more cops of the street;and agaist a Bill introduced by Barack Obama that would have provided the funding for educating our children on defending themselves from sexual predators–with Barack Obama–American Children Win!!
12. Rocky | 09.10.08
It seems some Americans are turning this election into an American Idol contest.
13. American Firster | 09.10.08
I think a HUGE issue with mccain is his anger . if you go to youtube and search for clips of Mccain flipping pout at random people, reporters and congress when interviewed and asked questions one will KNOW … no one wants to be near this guy during a ‘3 a.m.” call nor, no one WANTS this HOTHEAD anywhere near the ‘red butrton’ under duress.
THIS should be a superlative and mainstream issue MCCAINS VOLTATILE temper. he is not clear headed or calm enough to run anything, his first marriage or
the UNITED state. save america. dont vote republiclan. they dont deserve ANything after the last 8 years. MCCAIn voted with BUSh 90 percent of the time.
14. Joni | 09.10.08
One area of Sarah Palin’s background that may help her is Alaska’s unique role in our national security and homeland defense.
Several folks have have mentioned this but Tom W. was specific and his info jibes with the record.
Alaska is the first line of defense in our missile interceptor defense system. The 49th Missile Defense Battalion of the Alaska National Guard is the unit that protects the entire nation from ballistic missile attacks. It’s on permanent active duty, unlike other Guard units.
As governor of Alaska, Palin is briefed on highly classified military issues, homeland security, and counterterrorism. Her exposure to classified material may rival even Biden’s.
She’s also the commander in chief of the Alaska State Defense Force (ASDF), a federally recognized militia incorporated into Homeland Security’s counterterrorism plans.
Palin is privy to military and intelligence secrets that are vital to the entire country’s defense. Given Alaska’s proximity to Russia, she may have security clearances we don’t even know about.
According to the Washington Post, she first met with McCain in February, but nobody ever found out. This is a woman used to keeping secrets.
She can be entrusted with our national security, because she already is.
Her experience in keeping the homeland safe fits perfectly with her image as the competent American woman.It’s not the same as having your finger on the button, but it a heckuva lot closer than Biden or Barry O has ever been.
It will be tremendous fun to watch a couple of complete political tools like the Hope&Change duo attempt to attack a record of substance not words, a record of action not bloviation, a record of kicking butt and taking names against “what now…?”
Get the facts!
See you at the polls.
15. Nu,Bakson | 09.10.08
I’d love to stay here and shout as loud as I can but we all know that McCain is a hypocrite. He doesn’t mean what he says…
I am just scared that too many people are being fulled.
They do a negative campaign even though they pledged to a positive one, and when the other guy say something that’s hard… then they start moaning.
Absolutely appaling. It’s really getting ridiculous.
Then again, it’s been like that before. Why is Bush still in power if he was making sens all along?
At a time when we seem to have survived the near “End of the world” that could have been caused by scientist today, all I can think of is a “Change of the world”
A change is gonna come.
16. DS | 09.10.08
Today in America the wealthiest 1% owns more than everyone in the bottom 95% combined. Income inequality is at its greatest level since the 1920s - right before the great depression. Though the US has continued to make big gains in productivity over the last decade, nearly all of the benefit of those gains has gone to the wealthy, not the workers. American CEOs earned 411 times as much as average workers in 2005, up from 107 times in 1990. In the economic expansion of 2002-2006, the top 1% captured nearly three quarters of income growth.
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2006prel.pdf
This condition is not an accident, but is instead the deliberate goal of Republican economic policy. The rich write the rules! McCain’s proposals will accelerate this trend further by using a tried and true method - fill the campaign dialogue with talk about social issues, personal stories, vague statements (”tax cuts”), and the trickle-down myth, and hope that middle and lower income voters do not read the details. It worked twice with Bush. While they talk about gay marriage to your face, they are literally picking your pocket from behind - systematically redistributing wealth from poor to rich. And here’s the kicker - they don’t think there is anything wrong with the situation! And if you vote for McCain, you are again telling them that you don’t think there is anything wrong with the situation either! The high unemployment level, housing crisis, credit crunch, lower value of the dollar, high gas prices, and increasing national debt are all related to these failed policies. Standards of living in the US have continued to rise only because in most families both people work, and people work longer hours and more days per year (all for lower benefits). Something has to give…
These are the proposed tax plans for the two candidates. You can see that McCain intends to further reduce the tax burden of the wealthiest Americans at the expense of the middle and lower income families. Obama’s plan increases taxes on the wealthy, especially that top 1%, to the benefit of working americans - a first step in reversing the rich-get-richer trend and toward re-building a real middle class. In fact, Obama has offered to actually raise his own taxes for the benefit of the country as a whole. Where are you in this table?
……………… MCCAIN …………. OBAMA
Income ……. Avg tax bill ……. Avg. tax bill
Over $2.9M …. -$269,364 (-4.4%)… +$701,885 (+11.5%)
$603K and up…. -$45,361 (-3.4%)… +$115,974 (+8.7%)
$227K-$603K…… -$7,871 (-3.1%)…….. +$12 (+0.0%)
$161K-$227K…… -$4,380 (-3.0%)….. -$2,789 (-1.9%)
$112K-$161K…… -$2,614 (-2.5%)….. -$2,204 (-2.1%)
$66K-$112K …… -$1,009 (-1.4%)….. -$1,290 (-1.8%)
$38K-$66K …….. -$319 (-0.7%)….. -$1,042 (-2.4%)
$19K-$38K …….. -$113 (-0.5%)……. -$892 (-3.6%)
Under $19K ……… -$19 (-0.2%)……. -$567 (-5.5%)
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news/economy/candidates_taxproposals_tpc/?postversion=2008061113
17. Steve | 09.10.08
Obama can’t convince America he can stand up to our enemies. In all likelihood, he’ll negotiate with them endlessly, then give-in and proclaim victory. Endless discussion and passionate negotiating got Clinton nowhere with Israel & the PLO. By comparison, strength got Pres. Reagan the INF treaty. Militant Islam, Iran, China, Russia and N.Korea aren’t going to cooperate through dialogue and the eloquence of Obama’s pursuasion. They wan’t America to be weak and give in…allowing them to continue their evil oppression unnoticed. Someone who negotiates his values/principles may be “enlightened” to the wealthy liberal elite, but he’s a coward just the same.
18. theo | 09.10.08
brian, they’re both republicans so they have to vote 90% of the time like w? and we want another repeat of w for the next 4 years? 1 trillion deficit to 9 trillion in 10 years with mccain’s double-down of w’s tax cuts?
when 25% of mccain’s tax cuts go to households making $2.8 million or more? even when obama gives the middle class (30-200k) up to 3 times the tax cut as mccain?
think it through. enough already.
see for yourself how the rich screw the poor by preying on your stupidity.
obama’s plan: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/displayatab.cfm?Docid=1967&DocTypeID=1
mccain’s plan: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/displayatab.cfm?Docid=1894&DocTypeID=2
19. Anon | 09.10.08
Look to matt the guy who says that the church preaching is a bad thing in the election, you are wrong, church has always been taught and just because you are an athiest doesnt give you the right to bring a church into the equation. Im nor democrat or republican, but the fact that you and your democratic television stations, bring a pastor of a church and the fact that the teaching of “end times” teaches to live your life as if you were going to see God the next day and complaining about it as if it is going to change a thing, shows the true will to scrape every bit of footing even if it means playing dirty. Im sorry for not being politicly correct but Obama just wants to make history and blow his own policys out of proportion. He can’t acomplish even one of his goals without taxing the life out of every citizen in America. Goes to show that you vote for the party and not for the person. Congradulations you make yourself look like political fool.
20. Anon | 09.10.08
Also i have one more thing to add to the guy who proposed that the war in afghanistan and iraq will be stopped by Obama. Yes maybe the war in Iraq but not Afghanistan, Obama has already proposed he wants to chase Osama in a cave so if that floats your boat thats alright, i just dont thing dem’s are going to solve a thing.
21. angela | 09.10.08
It is a shame what a obviously double standard this world we live in. And people actually believe these negative ads from mccain! when jamie lynn spears got pregnant, bill o’reiley moaned and groaned about how it was the parents fault, but when bristol palin gets preg. it’s not and to give her a break! hypocrite!
palin uses her family as a tool for sympathy, but when asked questions about it she shouts for privacy! which 1 is it going to be? you cant have it both ways, if you want your family life private, which is totally understandable, dont show your down syndrome baby (who may not even be yours) on nat’l t.v., and her unwed preg. teenage daughter holding hands and cuddling with her boyfriend! maybe if palin supported birth control and sex education in school…maybe…just maybeee. her daughter wouldnt be preg.
OBAMA/BIDEN ALL DAY EVERYDAY!
22. one4REALchange | 09.10.08
Thank you for sticking to the big issues. I believe that the enthusiasm for Obama is based upon the issues. People believe that he is truly an agent for change. Obama speaks sincerely for the millions who want change to happen. So many had given up on democracy in America. His is not false hope.
The McCain factor sparks enthusiasm because there was so much apathy on the repubican side. Palin brings a new face, new enthusiasm, but its mainly gender focused. The enthusiasm is for the woman, not the Presidential elect.
23. Domingo Tavella | 09.11.08
Obama’s reference to pigs the way he did it, but suggesting they are what he suggested they are is outrageous! How dare he insult pigs this way.
I know the motto in the McCain White House will be “trash is beautiful”, but pigs are NOT TRASH, they are intelligent beings and should be treated as such.
24. Elaina | 09.11.08
The “pink elephant” in the room of “polls” that no one in the media appears to be talking about is the notion that many voters are severely underrepresented in the polls due to the use of land-line phoning for poll data. In other words, a significant percentage of younger voters (and those more likely to vote for Obama) don’t use land-line phones anymore, only cell phones with caller ID. In comparison, older voters tend to use land-lines and don’t have caller ID, and answer the phone if it rings (a captive audience). Therefore, the big bounce in the polls is likely coming from only a slice of the American population.
25. Mike | 09.11.08
Since we are looking at videos.
Barrack Hussein Obama told us the other day
“You can tell alot about where someone is going by where they have been”
Lets see where Obama’s been?
When mccain was in his 20′ he was serving in the military, Obama was doing drugs on the streets by his own admission.
and then there is this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAYe7MT5BxM
This is “where he has been” for 20 years. This is the teachings he identifies with.
26. retired 08 | 09.12.08
Our economy is in shambles. We have a war that is based on falsehoods. A CIA operative’s ID was revealed. Nobody in the current administration is being punshed for their actions. The next president will appoint new justices to the Supreme Court. Women voters should seriously consider this point as the court could pass a law declaring that it’s legal to pay less money to a woman than a man performing the same job.
Again, I ask, are you better off now than you were eight years ago? Is the USA better off now than it’s been eight years ago?
27. Charles | 09.14.08
Who is more bipartisan? Who is more of the same?
McCain voted with the Republicans (Bush does not actually vote) 90 percent of the time.
Obama voted with the Democrats 96 percent of the time.
http://strategicthought-charles77.blogspot.com/2008/09/obama-vs-mccain-who-is-really-more-of.html
28. Ted M. Garza | 09.15.08
Obama represents positive change.
McCain represents more of the same politics of the past.
Obama represents hope and good policies
McCain represents bad policies and more hatred.
Obama represents the middle class of America.
McCain represents the wealthy class of America(Less than 5% of the population)
Obama really cares about common citizens like you and me.
McCain does not give a damn about you and me.
McCain = Bush. Bear no doubt about that. Vote for McCain, you are definitely voting for at least four more years of Bush like policies.
If we do not wake up now, we will wake up on November 5th with the same old **** of another four more years of absolutely the same. Nothing will change, America will go down the drain if that happens.
29. Domingo Tavella | 09.16.08
As long as the US population remains the worst educated by first world standards, we can expect hostility towards intellectualism to continue to mount and cheap populism to become ever more present in Washington.
Sarah Palin, a person of extremely limited education, and John McCain, a man who profoundly despises knowledge and who is a bully at heart (there is a reason why he was one of the worst students on record at the Naval Academy) would be inconceivable if the American People had some modicum of critical thinking.
Americans are now witnessing the thirdworldization of their nation. The European experiment in the US has finally failed and the local “culture” is now taking over. Worse times are yet to come.
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1. Anonymous | 09.09.08
Please check this out … the most comprehensive page of information on Sarah Palin on the Internet … including videos of her saying her proposed $30 billion pipeline is the “will of God,” her saying a month ago she doesn’t know what the vice-president does, and her recently praising the biggest pork barrel spender in Congress Ted Stevens -
http://dailysource.org/palin
It has in-depth research, audio clips, videos, excerpts, and links to hundreds of articles, including many from newspapers and TV stations in Alaska. It has rare footage, including her telling the ‘08 convention of the Alaska Independence Party, whose aim is to give Alaska a vote on seceding from the U.S., to “keep up the good work.” The level of research is unparalled. The site’s editors and volunteers include an Emmy-award winning CNN reporter, the former operating editor of the Monitor’s web site, the former head of NPRs News Blog and the Executive Director of the Online News Association -
http://dailysource.org/about/team
Please repost email it to anyone who might want to know more. People