Who’s up, who’s down: Polls comparing Sen John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama have fluctuated considerably. One factor that makes pollsters’ work challenging is the surge in newly registered voters. (Rebecca Cook/Reuters)
Election wild card: first-time voters
Obama and McCain have traded leads in the polls. But whose supporters will turn out in November?
By Alexandra Marks | Staff writer/ September 9, 2008 edition
Pat Murphy talks with Monitor staff writer Alexandra Marks about new voters and how pollsters look at them.
Reporter Alexandra Marks
One week, Barack Obama is up by five or six percentage points. But the next, John McCain leads by three. It’s back and forth, up and down.
So how do we know who’s ahead?
More than in any other presidential election in recent times, polls may be failing to capture accurately what’s happening in the American electorate. There are a couple of reasons, but the most key for the pollsters are massive voter-registration drives, especially by the Democrats, which have created millions of first-time voters. Pollsters aren’t quite sure yet how to calculate the impact of all these new voters on the election.
“The polls could be inaccurate because it’s hard to know how to weight first-time voters. That’s a major problem for pollsters, and there’s a lot of volatility in the electorate now,” says Darrell West, director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Most of the traditional polling methods are based on likely voters, and the likelihood of voting is measured through participation in past elections. Generally, that’s not a big problem because there aren’t that many new voters, but this year, we’ve had a big spike in interest by first-time voters.”
That became especially apparent during the primary season, when voter turnout increased more than 120 percent, and few if any of pollsters predicted it.
The types of people who turned out also caused some surprises. Young people flocked to caucuses and the voting booths, double and even tripling their participation in some states like Iowa. A recent study by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that in this election, “more than 3-in-5 young voters are excited about the election.”
Hispanics also caught some pollsters off guard during the primaries. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, found that Latinos made up “a growing share” of the turnout in 16 of the 19 states in which exit-poll comparisons could be made between 2004 and 2008.
The most dramatic increases were in California and Texas. In the 2008 California primary, Hispanics made up 30 percent of the Democratic voters, compared with 16 percent in 2004. In Texas, Hispanics made up 32 percent, compared with 24 percent in 2004, according to the report.
The turnout in November
The challenge for pollsters is to figure out how many of those new voters will go back to the polls in November.
“I’m a little humble here: I think the bigger worry about whether our polling is right is who is going to turn out to vote,” Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg told reporters at a Monitor breakfast during the Democratic National Convention in Denver. “The models aren’t very good from the past, and combine that with the well-funded, serious levels of grass-roots organization that we haven’t seen before, and I’m a little nervous.”
Mr. Greenberg is not alone among pollsters, who are constantly assessing and upgrading the models they use to predict outcomes. Some of the other variables they now have to consider are early voting, which is allowed in 23 states, and same-day registration in a handful of states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Each variable has the potential to throw off the sample of registered and likely voters.
“History becomes less of a guide here … so we are asking about early voting and first-time voting and tracking that to see if it helps us,” says pollster John Zogby of Zogby International.
Voter registration lists
Some state-level surveys and partisan polls – those done for candidates and their parties – don’t use random phone samples. Instead, they rely on voter registration lists. The method is not considered as reliable because those lists can be out of date. One pollster, who didn’t want his name used so as not to offend colleagues, called the method “on the cheap,” and thus most major pollsters don’t use it. But some pollsters still do.
“If your sample is a year old in Pennsylvania, you’re going to miss a huge amount of movement because of the dramatic, dramatic change in registration in Pennsylvania [before the primary],” says Margie Omero, president of Momentum Analysis, a Democratic polling firm in Washington. “When you compare state-to-state surveys, which is how people come up with what the model will be for electoral votes, that’s something to keep in mind.”
How the issue of race factors into polls can also affect their accuracy. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, particularly in the South, many African-American candidates would find themselves ahead in the polls when voters were asked about their preferences prior to the election. Then they’d lose, when voters expressed their true preference in the polling booth. But that phenomenon – of people being afraid to tell pollsters what they really think when it comes to race – no longer appears to be a significant factor. Indeed, during the primaries, Senator Obama actually did better during some primaries and caucuses than he did in the polls.
One reason for that is that pollsters have come up with elaborate sets of questions to identify voters’ true preferences. But race can still present some problems for pollsters, particularly when those who refuse to participate are taken into account.
“The larger issue is the refusals – whether the people we don’t get are more racially intolerant than the people we do get,” says Andy Kohut of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. “That’s a problem child for us.”
Comments
3. Terri | 09.09.08
This is exactly why the MSMs should STOP publishing daily polls! The polls can wear on people’s emotions!
4. Justice | 09.09.08
PLEASE verify this!
I read an LA TIMES article last month that revealed that Barack Obama’s campaign will try to register African American criminals who have NOT YET been sentenced, as well as those who have already completed their sentences, so they can vote for Obama in November. This effort is being concentrated in the southern states, and his campaign is trying to keep this low key due to fear of a backlash.
5. http://blog.kmelanie.com | 09.09.08
Thank you so much for this post. First-time voters will CHANGE this election!!
6. Norris Hall | 09.09.08
This campaign has stirred up more interest than any other that I can recall in my over 45 years of voting.
This year the election goes way beyond two middle aging white males. the candidates in this election are black and white, old and young, male and female, conservative and liberal, evangelical Christian and mainstream religion.
7. russ | 09.09.08
What is shocking is that the American media and parties seem to have rendered the election process into a sporting event complete with ever changing scoreboards with snazzy graphics (polls) and all manner of spin mastering play by play announcers. The result of this is sadly effective, as media is very good at rendering the public into a state of dim witted mesmerization. This has become so absurd that we now choose cheerleaders and beauty queens for candidates.
What was it Lincoln said “you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time.”
Hey, anyone want to buy a bridge to no where?
8. billabeeb | 09.09.08
Another question… How are these people polled? I have two children who are both voting age who don’t have land line phones. They use cell phones. The same is true of the five grad students who live on our block and with all of the voting age students that my kids know. Do cell phone only users factor into these surveys?
9. marie batteb | 09.09.08
and how many registered voters now use cell phones rather than land lines……..?
10. Shannon | 09.09.08
I’ll just wait for election day. If I’d like a hint of what’s going on in the electorate, I’ll look at the campaign methods and locations, I think that’s the best way to determine what’s going on in the electorate.
11. Mike | 09.09.08
The world is changing and a generational shift is coming. Change for the better. The younger generation is one that questions that status quo and asks “Why?”. This is a scrutiny the Republicans cannot live up to and their attempts to repeat lies until people believe them won’t work on this population.
Young people are high information users and have unlimited access to the internet and all the information corporate media is afraid to run.
There is a landslide coming and it is going to wipe out the Republican Party as it currently exists.
Obama/Biden!
12. Paul | 09.09.08
I didn’t seem too many people upset when Obama was ahead on the polls. Now all of a sudden everyone is saying it doesn’t count or those are not real. I guess in November we will see who is correct.
Independent Voter.
13. TaoZen | 09.09.08
Since the younger generation will have to face the ballooning deficit, the outsourcing of government, Medicare bankruptcy, and the fallout of global warming (McSame will be gone by then, and the pit bull with lipstick will be covered with a burka anyway), I only hope and pray that YOUNG AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL VOTE, VOTE, AND VOTE! It would be a travesty if we’ll have voters turnout like previous elections.
14. Slammin | 09.09.08
First Time Voters!!! WOOO HOOO…Totally gonna favor John McCain!!!! Wooo Hooo!!!1 YEeeeahhhH!!!
15. The Real Obama Speaks | 09.09.08
Obama Says McCain Is Offering Fake Change: ‘You Can Put Lipstick on a Pig, But It’s Still a Pig’
September 09, 2008 6:10 PM
LEBANON, Va. — “That’s not change,” Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said of what Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is offering.
“You know, you can put lipstick on a pig,” Obama said, “but it’s still a pig.”
The crowd rose and applauded, some of them no doubt thinking he may have been alluding to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s ad lib during her vice presidential nomination acceptance speech last week, “What’s the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick.”
“You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called ‘change,’” Obama continued, “it’s still gonna stink after eight years.
“We’ve had enough of the same old thing! It’s time to bring about real change to Washington. And that’s the choice you’ve got in this election.”
Obama added that “it is not going to be easy … John McCain has a compelling biography, you know Sarah Palin is an interesting story.”
The crowd booed.
“No, she’s new!” Obama said. “She hasn’t been on the scene, you know, she’s got five kids and my hat goes off to anybody who’s looking after five. I’ve got two and they tire Michelle and me out!”
– Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller
UPDATE: Obama senior adviser Robert Gibbs insists the senator was not referring to Palin. “That’s an old expression,” Gibbs says.
16. rapp | 09.09.08
Gallup uses both Cell phones and land lines. They have Mccain up by 5. Rasmussen uses only land lines and has it even.
18. OregonGuy | 09.09.08
This is exactly why I think Obama/Biden are actually ahead by as much as 15-20 points. The GOP is going to be shell-shocked on November 4th when the Dems win at least 40 states…
“But… how… why… what…”
“Uhh, we’re [pollsters] sorry Mr. McCain. We just didn’t take into account the 20+ million young voters that we were never able to poll.”
19. wellmakeit | 09.09.08
Book Burner Sarah is having a hard time thinking for herself these days. The conservative-corporate media is giving her a free pass.
20. april | 09.09.08
Paul,
I think people are scared. That is why it sounds like people are saying it doesn’t matter. I am an Independent and an hopeless idealist. I think the people of this country are fed up and are going to show up to vote in droves. Why people like Slammin think voting for John McCain is good - is beyond me. It goes to show that lies can win over anyone. Most people are blind to the facts.
Let’s just pray that these polls are meaningless and that Obama/Biden will come out on top.
22. padrighean | 09.09.08
Barack Obama and Biden both have taught Constitutional Law and they respect the Constitution. McCain and his model, George W. Bush, and his irresponsible running mate, Palin, are devoted to ignoring the Constitution.
23. Thomas Jackson | 09.09.08
No one has polled me yet. I am a 56 year old, white blue collar worker from Tennessee. And I have a land line.
But I am voting for Obama, so maybe that’s why no one has called me.
I actually look at these “samples of voters” that these pollsters take their data from. Sorry, but I just ain’t buying it.
If I were you Republicans, I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
More people than you can imagine (and more than your pollsters can imagine, too!) are going to be voting for Obama come November.
So, enjoy your ill-perceived lead in the polls while you can.
Come November, you will all be history.
24. Gavin Young | 09.09.08
In the last presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 the Republican officials (especially in Florida in 2000) bared many fellons who had completed their sentences, from voting in the elections, especially African Americans. That was unjust. If sometime has served their sentence they should have their voting rights restored. In Florida most of the people were not even fellons, instead they simply had the same name as a fellon. If it is true that “Barack Obama’s campaign will try to register African American criminals … who have already completed their sentences, so they can vote for Obama in November. This effort is being concentrated in the southern states” then that is a wise and good thing. Likewise if they have only been charged with a crime, but not convicted because they have not yet been tried, then they also should have an opportunity to vote (since a person is innocent until proven guilty).
25. dan | 09.09.08
If it is anything like last election…you forgot to mention all the dead democrats that will be voting.
26. GeorgeR | 09.09.08
Re Gallup’s starting to use cell-phones in January, 2008—This is “a small supplement”. Check out the youtube interview on pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_adds_cell_phone_intervi.php) with Gallup’s managing editor, Jeff Jones. He seems to be saying that including cell phones doesn’t make much difference in part because Gallup’s–much criticized, by the way–”likely voter” screen filters out young and minority voters as unlikely–which would seem as well to screen out the more likely Obama voters.
27. Jon Sims | 09.09.08
If this is true, we know that a majority of young new voters only have cellphones. As a result they can not be contacted. This is the first Presidental Election that has this issue.
that is not true..Obama made it a point to collect cell-phone numbers so he could ’spam’..er…I mean text messages his croonies…er…I meant supporters….LOL
28. s chambers | 09.09.08
As a life long Democrat have to say that I have been totally embarrassed by our party. And today I ‘opened my eyes’ after hearing the sexist ‘pig’ comment from Obama
How insulting!
As a Woman, I am so angry that I have wasted so many years working for this party, supporting the candidates, attending rallies, placing signs, sending checks. Our Party has proved once and for all that it is nothing but a Good Old Boy’s elite club.
Please, hear me out about why I felt this way.
First, I really do not understand why we, as Democrats, would hire and pay entire groups of people to attend the Republican Convention to shout obscenity’s, hold up banners containing misinformation and attempt to totally disrupt and dishonor the opposing candidates acceptance speech over, and over, and over again. What was the purpose?
Sadly, I have got to say that I almost never see this occur in our Democratic acceptance speeches by attacking Republicans. In fact, I remember Mr McCain actually having a commercial that said “job well done” during our own convention. However, for years now, I have seen this disruption and dishonor by bad mannered fellow Democrats occur during the Republican speeches, and they are hired to do so. This really truly portrays our party in a very bad light.
Everything that Joe Biden spurts out is either misinformation, disinformation, or sexist anger! How dare he say a “Woman’s place should be in the home”, and “Palin is obviously sacrificing her family values by running for Vice President. Biden is Washington elitist through and through. Change? Now that’s a joke, Biden is as far from change as it is humanly possible to get. Just another **** Chaney.
To tell the truth, it is very embarrassing for both me, our family, and our many Democratic friends.
29. DS | 09.09.08
Maybe at some point before the election they’ll actually let Palin say something that hasn’t been scripted for her. Ever since she was picked for McCain she’s made only a few comments of her own, and they validate the Republican leadership’s deepest fears - she just doesn’t know very much.
30. oncemanc | 09.09.08
Ironic, isn’t it - McCain and Palin are stuck together as if with superglue. He needs her to attract crowds and excitement, and she needs him to protect her from opening her mouth too much.
31. CDavis | 09.09.08
All I have to say is you all have no idea what kind of people we grow in Alaska. If you think Gov. Palin is afraid of the media, you all are going to be in for a shock when she does sit down with all the people who have been slamming her for everything under the sun because they can’t find anything worthy of a true scandal. Alaskan politics, and I mean the politics that has nothing at all to do with Washington, is very open and much too hard to hide anything from the public. So, for all of you out there who think you know Gov. Palin, all I have to say as an Alaskan whose mother worked for Mayor Palin, is wait and see. Just wait and see =).
32. Pat | 09.09.08
WV woman…formerly a Hillary Clinton supporter…now a hopeful Obama supporter.
I hope those voters who are angry at the Dem.party good ol boys (Kennedy -Rockefeller) don’t vote for McCain and Palin.
Why not just switch to Independent but vote for Obama…a good choice though not Hillary.
Why risk the future of this country on McCain and Palin?
33. p. battle | 09.09.08
S Chambers just exactly what planet are you from. Do you really believe that any one is going to buy the stuff your making up? Please source your Bidden “quote” . How about paying enough attention to know that the demonstrators you are calling paid Democrats were activists from groups such as Code Pink. You come across as a clumsy Repugnican agent provocateur if you really are a disaffected Democrat phew what a relief that your sparing the party your participation! With Dems like you who needs Repugnicans. You have made a lot of serious disruptive charges prove em!
34. Stephen | 09.09.08
Justice,
In response to your post: The Obama campaign IS NOT trying to register criminals. There ARE groups trying to criminals, but these ARE NOT the Obama campaign.
The LA Times article was confusing, since it did mention that the Obama campaign is trying to register many black voters (who are hugely Democratic). It was later in the same article that it mentioned that other groups besides the Obama campaign, including the NAACP, had been trying to register black felons. It should be noted that the NAACP has had felon-registration activism for at least 8 years, since the 2000 election. This was a result of the large number of felons that were eligible to vote in Florida and other southern states but did not know there rights.
Thanks for the heads up,
Slander Patrol
35. little lynn | 09.09.08
I’m a democrat and all I want to KNOW is who’s going to be responsible for all ballots. We need democrats inplace at voting polls to ensure actual
ballots are accounted for. I know this will be a very important task and I will continue to pray for insight and wisdom for the party. I don’t think
this country can endure another recount.
36. rita | 09.09.08
Its the Nov 4 polls that matters and the Rove Bushies repubs should be scared looking at the primary voters. For those who wishes to vote democratic it is upon you duty to make sure first and foremost that you show up to vote, bring drive drag any of your family or frieds with you to vote, and if you still have time encourage strangers leaning democrats and encourage them to vote. Every vote will mean something and send a msg to the repubs it is time to hand over the failed policies of past.
37. ray henry | 09.09.08
I am a 65 year old that is registored to vote for the first time. Just to vote for Palin. I am emailing, phoning, writing, bloging and everything else I can think of. I know of at least 15 people that was not going to vote before she got in the race. And, I live in a small country town.
38. Vicki | 09.09.08
My children and most of the people they know are avid Obama supporters. They are 38 and 40 years old. They are passionate about this election. We live in Kansas. I know they will vote.
I heard today that Karl Rove was helping with the McCain campaign. Surely he’ll have to get off the cable news shows as a pundit now. This last week has been deja vu for me. All of a sudden it feels like the election four years ago. Now I know why.
It is bazarre that in six days so many Americans have fallen in love with Palin. It’s like a high school crush or something. They don’t even know her. Now many of them refuse to hear the truth about the lies and exaggerations that are coming out now.
We must not let the Republicans trick themselves into the Presidency again! America cannot take four more years of this.
39. jackie | 09.09.08
I have never been more inspired to vote or wanted to inspire others to vote more in my entire life. I am an independent and feel like it is our duty to put a man into office who can inspire us and make us improve our own communities. There has been a lot of smack-talk about Obama’s big liberal movement, but the truth is, the Government has never been bigger and more invasive than it is RIGHT NOW and - the sad part about that is that it’s being done so slovenly. Not bigger government, smarter and more inspirational. Yeah, I can live with that.
40. brian | 09.09.08
‘Criminals’ have a vote? Yes, of course they do. The State call their opponents criminals in many countries. That’s why America gives everyone a vote. Is McSame scared of voters casting their vote? That’s what Republicans have always been scared of. Power for the people. Give democracy back to Americans, and vote these book-burning, anti-democratic, money-grabbing, corporate-supporting, tax-stealing lackeys out of power! No more Bush, no more McSame.
41. ExpectingGood | 09.10.08
If everybody who doesn’t have a job but is looking for one, everybody who doesn’t have universal health care but needs it, everybody who is facing foreclosure and struggling financially… if everybody who fits those demographics votes their heart in November, Obama will win by a landslide. Obama doesn’t need lipstick, he’s got Values.
42. Charles | 09.10.08
To the person who wonders if the Obama camp is registering not-yet-convicted criminals — You “read that in an article” huh? What magazine — GOP Propaganda Weekly?
43. Gail Peters | 09.10.08
Here is the best website you’ll ever find for polling info:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Bookmark it and consult it often—this election is going to be one wild ride!
44. Tim | 09.10.08
I McCain and Palin are elected then I (not an American) can only wish all the people that didn’t vote for them good luck. I feel for you…I really do. And thank-you for not just being easily manipulated sheep. Watching the American elections has shown that it really doesn’t take much to make people accept something that will surely bring nothing but more misery for that country. You want a Woman…well here’s one, Who is she? Who Cares! She’s a woman and don’t you dare criticize her because that’s sexist. She’s not what America or he world needs and everyone knows it. Why are so many people not looking at the facts on John McCain and Sarah Palin. He voted with Bush 90% of the time, do these people really think Bush was right 90% of the time?
democrats don’t get to angry with these blind republicans, maybe with patience they’ll stop just fighting the truth when they see that no one wins if McCain is elected.
But I wouldn’t lose faith, the youth of America still haven’t had their voices heard in these election polls, they will be the tie breaker. To every young American, if you do only one great thing for your country in your life….do not let McCain/Palin win this thing!
46. Jim | 09.10.08
Why would the Obama campaign want to question Palin’s faith? Do they think America has forgotten Obamas fiip flop on his reverend and what he stood for? Another no no should be saying what will happen if McCain died in office?
Well, Palin has the most executive experience of all of the candidates. My question is what will happen if Obama is elected because no one will have to die for that scary scenario of the most inexperienced of the four candidates to take place? I don’t know where these polls are being conducted because everyone I know is voting for the only sensible choice John McCain .
47. Ann Zegler | 09.10.08
It doesn’t really matter what any of the polls say. What really concerns me is how many of these newly registered voters will find themselves unable to vote on election day because of mile long lines due to the unequal distribution of voting machines, the breakdown of large numbers of voting machines in mostly democratic precincts as we saw in 2004, the strategic removal of large numbers of names (registered as democrats) from Registration lists by election system insiders, the disenfranchisement of large numbers of new voters with new Voter ID laws, and what has now become the norm in our elections, the flipping of votes electronically by voting machines nationwide, all of which are owned and operated with secret, proprietary software. Since the major voting systems corporations now secretly counting(with proprietary software) almost all votes nationwide, are all owned and operated by staunch Right wing conservatives, it is hard for anyone to believe that reported election results will be an accurate picture of the votes that were cast, or more accurately, the votes that the electorate attempted to cast. Under the current system of conducting elections in the U.S., polling results are totally meaningless. Sad but true.
48. Jan | 09.10.08
Don’t forget that in referring to Hillary Clinton during the primary season, McCain said you can’t put lipstick on a pig. Why was that okay and Obama’s comment not?
49. Mike | 09.10.08
Check out stopsarahpalin.blogspot.com for some thoughts on this candidate from an independent thinker. I’m no party hack, and I am just furious that lies are being passed as fact by the McCain campaign.
50. Michael Loren | 09.10.08
Great article. This is a real fun horse race. I agree that the more new voters we have will benefit the Democrats. I have an employee who has not voted for 20 years, she was so impressed with Palin that she went out to register last week. However, I have a feeling that Palin will be beat up badly by the press and may prove a liability to McCain. I would not be suprised if her family situation- special needs child and needy pregnant teenager results in her resignation from the race. This country is very racist. Imagine if Obama’s daughter was 17 and was single and pregnant. It would be the end of his career.
51. Linda Rodgers | 09.10.08
I am 52 year old female. I am so tired of being lied to and manipulated. For the last 8 years, the Bush administration has told us that “black is white, white is black”. Huh? Remember the weapons of mass destruction? Remember back 8 years ago when people stated they voted for Bush (over Gore), because they felt more comfortable with him? Look at what has happened to our country! We are in a financial mess; we are in a war we started in Irag….whereby innocent children, women, and families have been destroyed. No one talks about those children, do they? Our young men and women soldiers who fought and then returned home are trying to put their lives together….w/a VA scandal to boot. In Obama, we have an educated, extremely intelligent man vying for the Presidency. He is decent, he cares, and he is committed to working with others to solve our nation’s problems. I’ve watched many of his speeches on C-Span. He has integrity. I don’t see McCain/Palin leading us anywhere except to another war in Iran. I’m disgusted at their lies! (see factcheck.org) McCain’s solutions to any of the questions posed to him are lacking in depth. He can only criticize and smear Obama. McCain states he will cut the budget, but I’m sure he will not be cutting Military spending. What gets cut then? Social services will be cut. Social services for people in need. Food banks are now running out of food. Senior citizens who only rely on Social Security payments are now going to bed hungry. (Per AARP article). The list goes on of all our country’s problems. When are we, as a nation, going to grow up? All I can say to McCain/Palin who offer more of the same—-Thanks, but no thanks!!
52. Morisa | 09.10.08
McCain or should I say the Republican Party chose Sarah Palin. It is amazing to me how we Americans get so caught up in the packaging and not the contents. Lets stick to the issues. McCain said you can’t put lipstick on a pig during Hillary’s primary season. Why was that okay and Obama’s comment not? What makes Palin or her advisors think that the media should treat her any differently then they treated Obama. Suck It Up and put on your Men pants and deal with it, Politics is a dirty game
The only people in America that are doing well are the rich/elite, and they are not concerned about the middle class or the poor. Our government bureaucrats forget who placed them in office and who pays their salaries. We get comfortable with the little scraps that they give us i.e. Bush money (stimulus dollars), technically that is money they owe us for all the bull we have to put up with on a daily basis. Obama or Palin, We have had 19 months to get to know Obama and here comes Palin the new lady, the virtual known with about the same experience level as Obama. Does that make her VP or possible Presidential material? Just as Obama has to deal with the many Questions and doubts, so does Palin.
Those women who are now saying they are voting for Palin need to thoroughly check the contents of the package. She may be able to talk the talk and walk the walk, but it is still a Republican.
53. Raymond | 09.10.08
Yah…but since we are evergrowing as a “consumer nation” (It has become our national religion after all…can anyone escape that swimmers **** on consumer goods now?) Polls are manipulated by cash…and cash kings like Media organizations can charge higher fees during campaign season if the campaign is interesting…
It is all about the soap-on-a-rope…more and more everyday.
54. Big Pete | 09.10.08
We can only hope and pray that new voters see through the baloney and overthrow Republican rule.
The Republicans have controlled our government for years.
Congress: 1994-2006.
White House 2000-the present.
Federal Bureaucracy: See White House, above.
A solid lock on the government for the first six years of Bush’s presidency.
What did they do for all your social issues, Palin supporters? Nothing, nothing and nothing. Now I see these folks raving about how having an abortion opponent as VP is going to do something. Why didn’t Bush & Co. do something when they controlled the entire government? You tell me, and no, you cannot blame “the liberal media”.
Go ahead and drink the Kool-aid. The rest of us would like to see some competence in our government. The Republicans had their chance. They’ve blown it. Vote them out.
55. mimom | 09.11.08
You can go ahead and count on the “first time” voters all you want. They are brainwashed by the MSM and idealistic and the fact is they don’t vote in the record numbers that the Dems hope for. Our current president had to face a 9/11 and deal with it. He did not contribute to it nor did he fail. I am disgusted at the way the “younger, hip” generation has forgotten this. You can wish for change all you want but is it really the change we are looking for?
Competence comes with experience and the Democratic ticket doesn’t have it. Sorry, you should have nominated Hillary. At least she had the experience.
Obama didn’t mean anything by the lipstick comment but being a leader is using descernment. That comes with experience. The comment that disturbed me more than anything was when he said he didn’t want his daughter to be punished with a baby because she made a mistake!!! What kind of person says such a thing? I suppose he would be much more comfortable with taking her to an abortion clinic to “take care of the mistake”. I can’t stand it when pro choicers use abortion as a form a birth control. Thank God, everyone hasn’t lost their morals or no one would be able to adopt.
I’m praying for a McCain-Palin victory in November.
56. Jax | 09.13.08
Meant to say fill out form from the government. Palin did the same
thing as governor. Ear Mark Lady. Alaska got more money from the
government than any other state - “ultimate welfare state”. So
much for reformer - more like a transformer.
57. Cora | 09.14.08
I have read many of the posters and I have a few comments, first, regarding polls, its a fact that many, many people are NOT being polled, however, I do think that the Paulin effect is helping McCain but I think that she will be unmasked hopefully before the election. This is what surprises me, John McCain insulted women and his base to a degree with this pick, he said I can find any woman and other women will support her, she has a big family she has a preganant daughter and she reminds them of a neighbor or a teacher, this is what we did with Bush, we chose someone who we felt we could have a beer with, have we had a beer with Bush, Sarah Palin is a mom and her daughter is going to have a baby, that does not make her qualified, look at the issues folks, not the package, she is anti-choice even for rape and incest, her husband joined a seccessionist party, Obama was crucified for rev wright and this to me is even worse, she is under investigation and it seems that none of this matters because she belonged to the PTA…
58. Cora | 09.14.08
Mimom posts said Obama should have used better discernment to make the lipstick comment but McCain said the same thing himself when talking about Hillary Clinton’s healthcare plan and he called Chelsea ugly and said Janent Reno was Chelsa’s father, and laughed when a supporter called Hillary a *****, but, yet the retarded PUMA will vote for McCain and Paulin who detests and hates everythinng HIllary stood for, and for all the PUMAS who believe a vote for McCain will get Hillary in 2012 with your anti-Obama vote guess what, you will not get Hillary you will get Paulin who will run in 2012.
Finally, regarding Obama saying he would not want his teenage daughter to be punished with a baby, while he was not saying a baby in itself is punishment it feels like a punishment when you are 16 and want to go out for a dance and you have to stay in the house with a baby, I am glad that Obama does not want his girls to wind up at 17 preganant to a guy who says on myspace that he does not want kids
59. Emily | 09.14.08
I have been a registered voter for more than 20 years. I have been a voting resident of two different states, over those years.
I have never been polled. Ever. Not in any Presidential race, Senate race or Governors race.
60. Aimee from PA | 09.16.08
Um, OF COURSE the youth vote overwhelmingly support Obama. I’m 25 and I would argue that my generation has felt the burn of the last eight years the most and thus is most motivated to change it.
WE are the ones who have fought to afford college only to graduate with thousands of dollars in student loan debt and no available jobs in our chosen fields. (Or our next-best chosen fields. Or a different field entirely. Or McDonald’s.)
WE are the ones who feel the brunt of the Iraq war, from watching our brothers, sisters, parents, and classmates deploy to having to schedule courtships and weddings around deployments and stop-losses.
WE are the ones who are “ageing out” of our parents’ health insurance only to discover that we can’t afford or don’t qualify for our own policy. Also see “lack of available jobs,” above.
WE are the ones who are in the market for new homes and new cars, yet can’t secure a loan because of the abysmal financial sector.
WE are the ones who are in our peak reproductive periods, yet are being told by the current conservative administration exactly what we can and can’t do with those bodies.
WE are the ones who have the most opportunities to travel before “settling down,” yet can’t go anywhere because of the high price of gasoline or the skyrocketing charges from the airline companies.
WE are the ones who want to start families, yet are terrified of bringing children into a world where global warming “doesn’t exist” and the environment is not only on the back burner; it’s off the stove entirely.
WE are the ones who understand that any solution to the oil and gas crisis needs to be a long-term, well-thought-out plan, not a temporary stop-gap fix (again, see “future for our children,” above).
PLEASE wake up America! Obama/Biden ‘08
62. dustin | 09.19.08
I am a college student, and of course there is overwhelming support for Obama among fellow students my age…
Additionally, I would estimate that less than 1 in 10 of students my age, or college age, actually have land lines.
I certainly hope this unknown slams McCain when it all goes down.
63. Thea | 09.23.08
Way to go Aimee from PA!! (60.). I could not of said that any better.
Yay first time voters.
PLEASE wake up America! Obama/Biden ‘08
64. Liz | 10.03.08
I am a college student, and this election will be my first time voting. I am registered as an Independent, but I am voting for Obama against my family’s wishes. This is becuase The only presidency I’m old enough to be familiar with is Bush’s. What with watching my friends go overseas for this “war” and having to take a city bus home from class after dark every night because I couldn’t afford gasoline and text books at the same time, not to mention going the last three years of my life without health insurance and having to beg family for money to pay for my school immunizations…I have to wonder if the Republican party has done a good job of earning my vote. After all this, I want to at least try a Democratic president. Hopefully things won’t get worse.
65. Synergi | 11.02.08
I think a demographic that may be over looked are voters that have been registered for years and never voted before until now. These are people and in their 30’s and 40’s that have never taken interest in voting until now. I wonder if this is being over looked.
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1. Ed G | 09.09.08
Is it not true that you need a Landline phone in order to be polled?
If this is true, we know that a majority of young new voters only have cellphones. As a result they can not be contacted. This is the first Presidental Election that has this issue.
So, how reliable are the polls. Someone ( Dem.or Rep. )is going to be surprised on Nov.4 if they are only relying on the polls.