(Jake Turcotte)
McCain campaign predicts greatest comeback ever - of all time even
By Jimmy Orr | 10.31.08
Who didn’t tear up when Rudy finally got his chance and was sent in to play for Notre Dame?
Who didn’t get a shot of adrenalin when Adrian awoke from a coma and whispered in Rocky’s ear, “I want you to do one thing for me. . . WIN!”
Who didn’t feel that same sense of excitement when Joe the Plumber got on stage yesterday and…..
Yeah, that doesn’t quite follow.
Halloween
Anyway. It’s Halloween and the polls are somewhat spooky for the McCain campaign. But John likes the roll of underdog. He’s said it many times. He is the underdog. “Big time” - as Dick Cheney would say.
How bad are the polls?
They’re kind of like the dancers from Michael Jackson’s Thriller video: spooky-looking yet synchronized. They all say the same thing. Although unlike the video, there are no instances of limbs falling off.
Close to midnight
Bloomberg’s not pulling any punches. It’s remote. It’s a longshot. They report McCain “goes into the campaign’s final weekend a bigger underdog than any victorious candidate in a modern election.”
But they know that history is made all the time. Some just may recall that the 2000 election was somewhat historic.
Polls
Gallup’s daily tracking poll shows Obama strengthening his lead with an eight point margin, 51 - 43 percent. In their expanded likely voter model, Obama has a nine point edge, 52 - 43 percent.
The latest Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll shows the same thing. Obama up by nine points, 53 - 44 percent.
CNN’s poll of polls gives Obama a seven point edge, 50 - 43 percent. And RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Obama up 50 - 43.5 percent.
Internal polls
No way, Jose. The polls are wrong says McCain campaign manager Rick Davis. He says internal polls show something completely different. They’ve had their best ten days of polling since the election Davis says.
Spin? Well, Davis makes the case for the discrepancy between public and private polling by pointing out that Obama campaigned in Iowa today.
“Iowa’s a good example,” Davis said. “Public polling had it at 12 points. Our own data now has us dead even in the state of Iowa. And we understand Barack Obama probably has very similar polling. He’s now on his way back to Iowa as one of his last campaign stops.”
Good news, but…
Newsweek’s Howard Fineman agrees that Obama spending time at this late stage in Iowa is a positive for McCain — although only calling it a “glimmer of good news.”
“But that is cold comfort for McCain, given what seems to be happening everywhere else on the map. African-American and new-voter registrations have turned both North Carolina and now Georgia into tossup states and put Obama ahead in Virginia. If Obama is able to convert all three, we’ll be talking blowout on election night. Even if Obama wins only one of them, he makes the rest of the map close to impossible for McCain.”
No buts
But if you listen to the McCain team, it’s entirely possible.
“We are witnessing, I believe, probably one of the greatest comebacks that you’ve seen since John McCain won the primary,” Davis said.
Dewey
Pollster Stu Rothenberg agrees, kind of. He tells Bloomberg that a comeback like this would certainly be historic.
“If John McCain were to win, it would be a stunning, dramatic reversal comparable to Dewey and Truman, but that would take a historic, dramatic turnaround,” he said.
Does he think he can do it? No.
Pennsylvania
Many believe in order to do it, he’s got to wrestle Pennsylvania away from Obama. That’s why both campaigns are spending so much time there. Again, it looks uphill for McCain with RealClearPolitics showing Obama to have a 9.3 percent lead in the state.
FiveThirtyEight
Can he turn it around? Everyone’s favorite pollster — Nate Silver, told New York Magazine that it really is a long shot.
“McCain’s camp seems to have this notion that they’ll lose Philadelphia, tie Pittsburgh, and win the Pennsyltucky part of the state,” Silver said. “But they’re going to lose Philadelphia by too large a margin to make up for it elsewhere in the state. What’s really costing them, I think, is that Obama is liable to do quite well in the Philly suburbs, which was more of a swing region before. SurveyUSA has Obama winning the entire southeast region of the state — city and suburbs — by about two to one. And that’s more than 40 percent of Pennsylvania’s population.”
Polling-Schmolling
Davis likens the race now to primary season when as the familiar McCain narrative goes - everyone counted him out…
“We had a saying during the primary, ‘Believe your eyes.’ There was not a single poll that showed us up in a lot of the primaries; we’re confident we can accomplish the same thing in the general election. We have no indication to the otherwise,” he said on the conference call.
Well, what about…
MSNBC’s First Read, however, spotted a flaw with that statement.
Before the New Hampshire primary: The NBC/Mason-Dixon poll had McCain up over Romney, 32%-24%; USA Today/Gallup: McCain 34%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 13%; CNN/WMUR: McCain 32%, Romney 26%, Huckabee 14%, Giuliani 11%, Paul 10%.
Before South Carolina: Three Republican polls showed McCain up with Huckabee narrowly trailing and Romney and Thompson battling for third.
Before Florida: Quinnipiac: McCain at 32%, Romney at 31%, Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 13%; Miami Herald : McCain 25%-23%
Who are these people?
The hope for McCain supporters? Undecideds are still out there. A full 14 percent of voters, or one in seven has yet to decide. This according to an Associated Press/Yahoo poll.
Why haven’t they made up their minds? Easy. The pollsters say these people don’t like either candidate nor the campaign. Imagine that.
“For now, their indecision remains intact despite the fortunes that have been spent to tug people toward either McCain, the Republican, or the Democrat Obama. Fueling their uncertainty is a combination of disliking something about both candidates and frustration with this campaign and politics in general,” writes the Associated Press.
We’ll find out soon enough what all the polls say. And then a few days later, we’ll start gearing for 2012 election coverage.
<< Obama: You don’t endorse me? You’re off the plane! | MainComments
2. jefflz | 11.01.08
Several polls of polls (Real Clear Politics, Fivethirtyeight.com, pollster.com, election.princeton.edu, etc.)which look at extensive voter data over multiple single state polls indicate Obama leads McCain by about 150 electoral votes. Can Obama lose? Yes, anything is possible, but the odds are strongly against McCain. McCain must act confident or guarantee failure but he can see the handwriting on the wall. He has run a miserable campaign.
3. NinaK | 11.01.08
McCain is delusional!! We are not blind, nor are we poor of hearing; the world has heard and seen McCain and Palin’s campaign of slash-and-burn tactics, slander, false accusations, and lies after lie. McCain and Palin are not representative of American citizens; in fact they bring great shame to our population and to our country.
4. Jeff Koopersmith | 11.01.08
Very right on! However the undecided are not quite as high as 14% - I would say maybe 7-8% at most. This makes it tough on Obama because there is, unfortunately, a Bradley Effect - I know first hand.
Jeff Koopersmith
American Politics Journal
5. Sonia Kermaz | 11.01.08
McCain knows how Bush won Florida and Ohio. He’s optimistic because he and the GOP have the same “mechanics” tweaking the system.
6. Cyrus | 11.01.08
Wake up, America! Obama’s “Dreams From My Father” will be the source of your nightmare. If you need a visual, take a good long look at the course of economic destruction throughout Africa over the last 50 years. Obama and his relatives are products of the “Big Man” tradition of one party government which is at the core of that continent’s suffering. The main ingredient is a messianic figure serving as front man for the power group who paralyzes industry and commerce through government control and confiscatory tax policies while turning a cooperative media against political opponents. A sobering reflection for the morning after Halloween. . . don’t wait until after Election Day to break out of the trance.
7. david l. smith | 11.01.08
Whereas Obama has been running against George Bush for over a year, the Democrats have controlled Congress the past two years. It is Congress, not the Executive Branch, who makes laws and appropriates funding.
It is desperately hoped that enough voters are intelligent enough to recognize this but I don’t have much faith in the average American any more. Alas, poor Joe sixpack.
8. M Tobias | 11.01.08
Arnold should comment on McCain’s soft brain, my fellow prisoners.
McCain keeps on lying about Obama’s tax plan.
He keeps saying that Obama will raise ‘YOUR’ taxes.
‘YOU” must make over a quarter million bucks a year, then.
Between $200 -$250 thousand, no change.
Under $200,00, congrats, you get a tax cut.
Read about it.
McCain will keep lying about it until election day.
And the tax rate for the ultra wealthy only goes up from 35% to 39%. But, boy, can they whine about it.
I guess the CEOs who make $100 million per year don’t want to pay the extra 4%.
That comes to real money.
9. Lucy2008 | 11.01.08
The 2008 election is an election AGAINST Bush McCain Republicans who have been a disaster for our nation.
From surplus $500B to >$1Trillion yearly deficit spending. To adding over $5T to the national debt- that the middle class pays for now, and further generations. This is the transfer of wealth the Republicans love so well. Bush McCain Republicans got us into a war of choice that is spending $10B/mo and close to $1.5T by the time we leave. 5,000 US solders have died and over 100,000 Iraqi civilians- men, women and children.
Our constitution has been abused by this imperial presidency that McCain supported over 90% of the time. Our citizens have been spied on and have lost their right of habeus corpus under Bush Chaney. Bush and with McCain’s support have broken our international treaties including the Geneva Convention by practicing torture. McCain has advocated for what he called interogation and everyone else called “torture”-proved by the Red Cross. Breaking the Geneva Convention are war crimes. McCain raged against the Supreme Court decision of Hamdan vs. Rumsfeld which limited presidential power to that stated in our constitution and rule of law, and to abide by our nations agreements and treaties.
The Republican party has abused our economy and our Blood and Treasure.They have abused our environmental resources and protection or our people through consumer protection and financial regulation. They have abused our constitution and rule of law. McCain was voted 90% of the time with Bush in full goosestep. The Democrats only came into real power in January 2008 when they could override a veto- Bush has been the most practiced veto president in history. Real power by the Democrats will come if they can override a Senate fillibuster- which the Republican Bush-McCain party has used more than any other time. The Republicans have been in power over the last 8 yrs, not the Democrats. The Republicans need a thumping. Like my father says, “throw the bums out”, get rid of the “robber barons”.
10. Charles van Bassen | 11.01.08
McCain is no doubt a great man and I think would have the best intentions as president,but he is an inroad to that part of America that puts its own interests ahead of the common good,and which has fashioned his campaign,underhanded and slanderous.No man can serve two masters.
11. BenjaminF | 11.01.08
McCain is obviously afraid that if his supporters acknowledge the reality of his lack of support that they won’t bother to vote, and he is also hoping that the voters are secret racists who have been lying to the pollsters in order to keep their racism secret, since racism has become an unpopular ideology. This is what his campaign has been reduced to-hoping that he will win due to secret racism. Every idea McCain has is simply more of George Bush’s policies. Have Bush’s policies worked well for America? Do we really want for the next four years to look like the last eight?
13. Greg | 11.01.08
Are you scared of one party rule? Maybe it’s because we’ve seen what a miserable mess the republicans have made of one party rule. America, you got what you deserved for re-electing the WORST PRESIDENT EVER. However, my faith is being restored. An overwhelming majority of Americans apparently has learned its lesson and is trying something different. Though there’s still some out there who think trying the same thing over and over might have a different result.
Well, if this experiment in change doesn’t work out, you know what to do in 4 years…you can vote for Palin for president (god help us). That is, if Obama hasn’t turned America into a Socialist paradise, dismantled the Constitution, unleashed a race war, and started eating children by then!
14. olusegun aiyeleso | 11.01.08
Well the greatest comeback of all time can only be achieved by the greatest electoral fraud of all time!
15. Paula (Indiana) | 11.02.08
It sounds like I am not alone in my fears of a repeat of the 2000 election. That was a bitter pill to swallow. If it happens again then I am afraid democracy will only be a word we read in the history books and dictionary.
I hope Senator Obama is so far ahead in electoral votes that the dirty politics in Florida or any other state tampering with the election results won’t prevail this time around. If he wins by a landslide it will be a mandate to Washington, Wall Street, and Corporate America that we the people are sick of empty promises, greed and corruption. It’s time for change!
I feel bad for Senator McCain. He has served this country well and if he does manage to pull off a miracle, I am sure he will do a good job. I just have more faith in Obama and his message for change. It is hope filled and our country needs the hope that someone will help restore our faith in government.
This country needs change desparately, and it needs all of us to put aside our differences and work together to restore our nation in the eyes of the world, in the eyes of all Americans, and for the future of our children. The blogs are full of angry comments and people divided. Just remember these historic words… “United we stand”. I think that’s very good advice. I love this country, I just want to feel proud of our leaders again as well as the people like me and you who elect them.
16. dottydo | 11.02.08
This campaign is about race and a kid with new money.
Jets, TV Obama network,
stopping the World series for a 1/2 hour of ego and Narcisism , while Auntie Zeituni is thrown under the nephews bus with his impoverished brother.
17. Robin | 11.02.08
I don’t trust the polls. They’ve been wrong too often. Even without fraud, there’s a real chance we may end up with McCain and Palin in the White House next year. And that’s as scary as it gets!
18. Queen Sara | 11.02.08
7. david l. smith | 11.01.08
Whereas Obama has been running against George Bush for over a year, the Democrats have controlled Congress the past two years. It is Congress, not the Executive Branch, who makes laws and appropriates funding.
It is desperately hoped that enough voters are intelligent enough to recognize this but I don’t have much faith in the average American any more. Alas, poor Joe sixpack.
—
Joe Sixpack also knows that the president has veto power over anything Congress passes. Legislation doesn’t become law until the President signs it.
19. dom | 11.02.08
It would be fitting recompense for front-man Obama to lose the election. Then David Axelrod could turn to all the pollsters and say, “What? You said we won! How much money did I pay you guys? What kind of snake-oil salesmen are you?”
And the pollsters could smirk back to Axelrod, “Better than you were.”
20. priscilla | 11.02.08
Remember, McCain left his first ailing wife for Cindy.
McCain does not live like everyone else, he is a billionaire because Cindy is the BudWeiser Beer Offspring Queen, so he does not have to worry ever about money, a job or anything else.
21. Santa Fean | 11.02.08
McCain is too old. Palin believes man walked with dinosaurs! Both capitulated to the far right wing of the Republican party. That party is not inclusive and preaches fear. I don’t buy fear.
22. Pierre | 11.03.08
When the economy is bad, we vote out the bums in charge: Obama wins easily.
When we are in a war, we stay with our war leader out of fear: McCain should win, but the economy is now by far the major issue, so Obama wins.
Racism exists in this country. Take 5 points away from Obama. Now things are a lot closer.
Having better and more “ground troops” getting out the vote significantly works, - it did for W. Bush twice. This time it should help Obama. Give him 3 points back.
Palin appears to be a net drag for McCain: give Obama 1 more point back.
Voters (those in the middle) do not like negative campaigning. McCain’s campaign has been exceedingly negative, - Obama’s essentially positive. Another point to Obama.
This is not 2004. Watch CNN: do the math. It does not appear that McCain can win. It appears that Obama will win. The popular vote will be about 5% points less than the polls, i.e., close. Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Georgia will go red. Obama will take Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio (close), Colorado and New Mexico, and win.
23. Jeanne | 11.03.08
Why is that Americans don’t get it that Democrats have controlled Congress for the past few years? These years have been the most do nothing positive Congress in the history of the United States.
24. wow | 11.03.08
To jeanne, the reason you believe Congress has done nothing is because bush has VETOED everything!…duh..
This election will be a landslide….Race will be a factor and I believe it will be beneficial for Obama.
I have confidence that you will see a lot of current McCain supporters changing their vote for Obama in the booth. Why you ask? Because republicans are afraid to show support for Obama amongst their friends/family for whatever reasons. (fear).
25. Jules | 11.03.08
I think it is really interesting that some of you are accusing Republicans of cheating with the MASSIVE DEMOCRATIC CHEATING ORGANIZATION CALLED ACORN ALL OVER THE NEWS. Not to mention when I went to cast my straight REPUBLICAN ticket in NC, guess what my machine registered: straight DEMOCRAT. I cancelled it out and did it again, and guess what…happened again. DEMOCRATS ARE THE CHEATERS. THE ONLY WAY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN IS BY CHEATING.
Trackbacks/Pingbacks
1. McCain, Other Candidates on Verge of Victory, Have Last Minute Internal Polls Showing Race Tightening | NachonBlog | 11.03.08
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Jimmy Orr has worked in politics for the majority of his professional career working for two U.S. Senators, two Governors and one President. Most recently, Orr served as White House Spokesman and Internet Director for President George W. Bush and Special Advisor to Governor Schwarzenegger for Internet Communications.
David Cook is Washington bureau chief of The Christian Science Monitor and host of the Monitor's newsmaker breakfasts. He was the Monitor's editor from 1994 to 2001. Cook is a graduate of Principia College, served in the U.S. Army, was a Bagehot Fellow at Columbia University, and is a member of the Gridiron Club, Washington's oldest journalistic organization.
1. vamiam | 11.01.08
For McCain to win is not an upset. If a white male wins the presidency it will for the 43 consecutive time so how could it be an upset?