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Obama shooting for Montana now?

By Jimmy Orr | 11.02.08

With less than 48 hours to go before Election Day, talk of the usually reliable red state of Montana going Obama is being seen as a real possibility.

Both CNN and NBC have moved the Big Sky state from leaning McCain to toss-up.

Yee-haw

This isn’t the first time Montana has been in the news this election cycle.

You’ll remember Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer was the surprise hit of the Democratic National Convention two months ago.  The Governor electrified the crowd causing the networks — which normally ignore whom they consider b-listers — to stop their blabbering pundits to carry the high-spirited speech.

“We need all of you to stand up,” he yelled. “Colorado! Stand up! Florida! Stand up! Pennsylvania! Get off your hind end! In the cheap seats! Stand up! We want to hear you from Denver to Detroit, from Montana to Mississippi, from California to Carolinas.”

You want to talk about folksy?  Montana’s governor makes Sarah Palin sound like the Queen of England.  (See one of his campaign ads below).

Obama leading

Regardless, the state’s in play.  A new CNN poll released on Friday shows Obama actually leading by a point.

“Montana’s usually a reliably Republican state in presidential campaigns. It’s been won by the Democrats only twice in the past half century. If you’re a Republican and you’re fighting for Montana in the last few days of the campaign, you’re not in good shape,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.

Florida 2000

Get this.  The Obama campaign has shipped 300 lawyers to the Big Sky state to assist with the election.  What will they do?  The Billings Gazette reports they will make sure that voters aren’t “turned away or discouraged from voting.”

Not only that but the Obama effort already “has 40 paid field directors, 14,000 volunteers and more than 60 ’staging locations’ statewide, where workers will coordinate a final get-out-the-vote push that began Friday and culminates Tuesday, Election Day.”

“We are mounting a massive field effort to turn out voters, in a way that this state really hasn’t seen before,” said Caleb Weaver, an Obama spokesman.

Obama win

With Montana moving to toss-up status, CNN says if the election were held today, Obama would win with 291 electoral votes. A candidate needs only 270 to win.

If Obama were to grab Montana, part of the credit would go to Texas congressman Ron Paul.  He’s on the ballot representing the Constitutional party.  And he’s polling at four percent of the vote.

This has caused the Republican National Committee to dump $300,000 to $400,000 to stop the state from turning blue.

McCain needs more

But even if Montana and the rest of the toss-ups go McCain it’s not enough.  That’s why you see McCain and Palin practically living in Pennsylvania.

As NBC’s Chuck Todd explained to Tom Brokaw this morning, if McCain gets all the toss-ups as they currently stand (Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada), that totals only 252 electoral votes.  Pennsylvania is his path to crossing the 270 threshold.

But, it’s still not that easy.  As Todd explains, if Nevada goes Obama (which is where the state currently leans), McCain’s got to get New Hampshire.

“[Pennsylvania and New Hampshire] is the only path he’s got left,” Todd said. “They know this and that’s why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don’t know if it really is. We know he’s spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that’s been incredibly kind to McCain’s political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.”

Where’s John McCain today?  Campaigning in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

<< Obama’s got Powell, but McCain’s got Cheney… | Main

Comments

1. Scott Bain | 11.02.08

This all comes down to polls vs. turnout in two senses…

1) Will the youth vote finally show up?

2) How skewed are the polls due to the increasing numbers of people who only use cell phones?

In my view, it’s really a matter of Obama wins vs. Obama wins by a landslide.

-S-

2. Ms. M. | 11.02.08

I am glad that Obama is in the lead. McCain has not been in touch with the younger generation. His issues are not best for this country. He has not given any just cause why he wants to run. Obama wants change something that Palin and Mc Cain don’t want. It is time for Change and that is what the USA needs.

3. Donn Walmsley | 11.02.08

Gov. Brian Schweitzer is arguably the most intelligent governor Montana has
ever had. He is a politician in the best sense of the word, being for the people, knowing the backbone of business in Montana, and lending his ear to all sides of issues: analytically; compassionately; and conservatively.

4. Vetting | 11.02.08

When do we finally start the vetting process on Obama? When is asking real questions of Obama not considered divisive? When do we find out how much Michelle Obama spent on the wardrobe? (350,000) When do we find out how many contributions for Obama are from Illegal immigrants or foreigners? (55%) When are we allowed to ask about his time at Harvard? What about ask about his place of birth (Kenya)? Or his 4 years as an Indonesian Muslim? Or about his status as a immigrant, not natural born? When do we find out who Obama is? When the second Watergate starts, that is when.

5. Andy | 11.02.08

“Vetting”.,

Your questions aren’t divisive, their just not reality based. For any body with the least amount of fashion sense it is obvious that Michelle Obama doesn’t even come close to having a $350K wardrobe. (Sorry Michelle, but it shows). Cindy McCain on the other at one night at the convention was wearing an outfit that was estimated to be worth $300,000 by Vanity Fair Magazine. The fact of the matter is that how much the wives of the candidates spend on their cloths is irrelevant- so long as they don’t do what Palin did and get her clothes from campaign money.

Campaign contributions from individuals who are not legally allowed to donate occur on both sides, but they come to negligible amount. Your suggestion that 55% of contributions to Obama are illegal is kinda crazy but just as likely to be true about McCain.

You can ask about Harvard any time. In fact people already done so and here is the answer: He was near top of his law school class and was the first African American to head the Harvard Law Review. McCain on the other hand graduated 2nd to last in his class at the Naval Academy. I don’t hold that against McCain, but you’re the one that thinks school experience is so important.

Obama was born in Hawaii. It is part of the US. McCain was born in Panama –yes Panama. It is not part of the United States.

Obama when he was a toddler went to a public school in a Muslim country. McCain when he was in his thirties was subjected by severe psychological manipulation by hard core communists in North Viet Nam. But we all know that neither McCain nor Obama are brainwashed Manchurian Candidates.

Your posting indicates that you have been swayed by the politics of fear. There is no need for you to be so afraid. In fact your country needs you to show more courage –otherwise we will not be able to come together to solve the difficult problems that lay a head

6. Jim G | 11.02.08

Thanks “Vetting.” I needed a good laugh.

No matter how many times you repeat the smears leveled against Obama, they still won’t be true.

7. RestDoc | 11.02.08

Hawaii’s Department of Health director on Friday released a statement verifying the legitimacy of Sen. Barack Obama birth certificate.

The state has received multiple requests for a copy of Obama’s birth certificate. State law does not allow officials to release the birth certificate of a person to someone outside of the family.

There were rumors that Obama was born in Kenya, where his father is from. The Constitution requires that the president be a natural born citizen of the U.S.

Here is the link to the article with a longer explanation. What’s your next question, Vetting?

http://www.wmtw.com/politics/17866059/detail.html

8. Davideo | 11.02.08

Hahaha ‘vetting’, i wonder if you actually believe what you’re writing or if you think the end justify the means and it is your goal to plant seeds of doubt. Most of these questions have already been answered and the answers aren’t the numbers you seem to have pulled out of your mule. I feel sad that you are so unhappy about Obama’s chances that you’re willing to spread these lies, or even sadder if you’re that misinformed.

9. pdx | 11.02.08

To Vetting: I have to think that at least the last 18 months of vetting Obama was a heck of a lot more than the 6 weeks of vetting Palin, despite the whining of the pundits at Fox News about media unfairness (as if they aren’t part of the media… hah!)

My sister and brother were both born in Indonesia, but they are as American as you (maybe more… I haven’t seen your credentials yet) and it’s a known fact that Barak Obama was born in Hawaii - an American state the last time I checked. John McCain was born in a foreign country, Panama, yet he is still an American. Barak Obama went to an Indonesian public school from the ages of 6-10, and it was not a religious school, despite all the misinformation. While I was a child, I also went to school in Indonesia for a few years, and actually had a Muslim teacher of Indonesian language, if you can believe that!? He taught us a little bit about his religion, but didn’t once try to convert us, and he was one of the most gentle people I ever knew. I ended up a middle-class, white, non-religious regular person type American. A little exposure to the rest of the world while growing up was a good thing for me and my brothers and sister, but sadly has highlighted how ignorant so many Americans still are to this day about the rest of the world, and how paranoid many of you are about things you don’t understand.

Please find a little self-respect, and try to educate yourself a little bit so you know what you’re talking about.

10. Joe G. | 11.02.08

Dear Vetting:

Are you asking questions or giving (erroneous) answers? Where DID YOU get that figure of $350,000? Where DID YOU get that figure of 55% of Obama’s contributions as being from illegal aliens or foreigners? (And by the way, you don’t seem to be upset about the US getting injections of cash from foreigners.) And WHAT IS IT you want to know about his time at Harvard? He was the president of the Harvard Law Review. He got his law degree there. When he was graduating, he got something like 400 job offers to work for big law firms for big bucks, but he turned them down to be a “community organizer” in Chicago. It’s been established by numerous news sources (including the Chicago Tribune, Washington Post, etc., etc.) that he WAS born in Hawaii, which WAS a US state at the time, so that makes him a natural-born citizen (and the same question could be asked about John McCain’s place of birth). He went to a school in Indonesia that had a polyglot of religions–and at the age he was, he probably wasn’t in a position to choose between one religion and another. Would you let your 8- or 10-year-old choose his or her religion? Probably not. Being the discerning Christian I take you to be, you wouldn’t allow your child to even LEARN about the teachings of Judaism, Buddhism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism, or Islam. And we already took care of the question of his being an immigrant: if he were an immigrant, we all know that he’d be ineligible for the presidency? And do you honestly think that the Democratic party would be dumb enough to let his candidacy get to this stage if they thought he was ineligible? Please. Only disorganized minds think along such lines.

But sometimes even people who ARE eligible to be president–and get elected–prove to be unprepared and unworthy of the office: think of the incumbent, if you will. What could possibly be worse. Oops. I forgot the divine Sarah!!

11. Union | 11.02.08

Union workers usually vote for the Democrat candidate, but Obama won’t hire or pay for union workers, here in Chicago for his thing in the park Tuesday night, he did not want to use union workers. No union workers in Chicago, who else could get away with this?

If you are a union laborer or teacher do not vote for him.

12. anonymous | 11.02.08

I’m actually surprised that Montana (!) is now a toss-up. Sure, it’s not a state that could tilt the election one way or another — it does, after all, have 3 EV’s.

But Ron Paul is very popular in Montana, and voters will turn out in large numbers to vote for Paul. A few will vote for Obama, but McCain? Well, he’s just not conservative enough to satisfy the GOP base there (Palin doesn’t help matters). Besides, McCain said, “I’m not President Bush,” which is both a good thing for many in the GOP…and a bad thing for those who are still faithful to Bush.

13. happy one | 11.02.08

Obama’s birth certificate is on his web site. His background has been spelled out over and over again. Don’t have a computer Go to the library and use one there and go to barackobama.com and find the facts. Michele Obama has a seamstress make her clothes or she buys clothes that we buy in regular dept stores. Contributions to the Obama campaign come mostly from folks like me, putting up $25. to $100. He made so much money because there are so many of us that respect his values and the ability to unite this country. Where have you been in the last 21 months that you are still wondering things that have been known for so long?

14. Obama | 11.02.08

Obama would tell you he is going to give you anything so you elect him, he has no plans no details, no ideas that he has not taken from McCain.

Obama is against unions his events he will not hire union employees, here in Chicago for his event Tuesday they are trying to hide that Chicago is very pro union. If you are a union laborer or teacher do not vote for him.

Lets stop the lies the troubles and the ongoing poor quality that you see from Congress, if Obama was a real worker he would have done something other than vote Present the majority of the time. This is not the time for clueless - other countries are chomping at the bit for this opportunity.

Union Democrat for McCain

15. Marcelo | 11.02.08

The credit for “losing” Montana goes to the neocon republicans that strayed from our party’s conservative message.

16. PacificGatePost | 11.02.08

It is evident that there is little agreement on the source of the current economic problem facing the nation. With so much confusion, and fingers pointing in opposite directions, NOTHING will get done. Obama has no understanding of economics, and neither does McCain. That doesn’t mean that they can’t appoint talent to help them, but what it does mean is that the individual elected on the basis of supposedly having a vision for the country, will have none as it pertains to the core of its foundation.

Wishes and hope are wonderful ephemerally positive energies for a society to feel, nevertheless, 350 million need to pay the rent and feed themselves.

Pretending that the economic fiasco facing the country is the result of Republican / Bush agendas will only lead to more disastrous policies like the ones that created the mess through the past fifteen years. It is incorrect that “laissez-faire” economics were to blame. If anything, there was tremendous government and bureaucratic meddling to promulgate the process. Granted, you can lay the stupidity of going into Iraq at the Bush doorstep. It was misguided, strategically vacuous, and insanely expensive.It also damaged credibility. Overwhelming confidence in overpowering military technology created an arrogance that could only blind an already ideologically bent leadership. This financial mess everyone is in, however, lies more at the feet of a Congress that looked the other way. This was simply Humans acting Human, and some humans getting a little grease to “go along.” For example, check out the amount doled out to Congress by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac… to whom and how much. That should give your percepts a tweak. Anyone pretending that these amounts were of little consequence, is afraid of what such pay-offs really mean.

HOWEVER THIS PAIN IS PAINTED OR PRESENTED, TAXPAYERS WILL FOOT THE BILL

Billions were made through this bubble, and there is plenty of blame to be spread around, however, where will the magic come from to REALLY solve this mess?

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/10/leadership-missing-in-action-dont-blame.html

17. Montanan | 11.03.08

The credit for Montana leaning toward Obama goes to the fact that he has visited the state (I believe) four times in the last year. And the fact that fewer and fewer Montanans are native Montanans, so they do not share our normally conservative viewpoint. Which is also the reason why we have Schweitzer for our governor. Schweitzer, who in all of his bids for office has NEVER carried his home county.
And if there was a question, I am a 25 year old college graduate (female) voting for McCain and a native Montanan.

18. a Montanan | 11.03.08

Here in Montana I am surrounded by hard-working, socially and fiscally conservative Republicans. I, however, draw a distinction between the religious wingnuts and the Main Street Republican businessman.

While there are people who get all energised by those wedge issues — abortion, gays, etc., (we have people almost getting creationist curriculum in the schools) there are also sensible Republicans who are smart enough to see that Bush and neo-con Republicans have really hurt this country. Bush has been far from fiscally conservative. He has attacked the Constitution and civil liberties with a vengance. He is an neo-con idealogue (except for the “bailout”). He has been reckless. Obama’s message that McCain means more of the same is working.

True: Ron Paul is very popular here. I hope he steals all the Republican votes. Montanans are generally sensible and practical and very independent. We have actually had some great Montana Democrats - Brian Schwitzer, Mike Mansfield, Pat Williams. Our state can support excellent Democratic candidates. Obama has tremendous potential to be, as Colin Powell has said, “a great president, a transformative president.”

Obama has been to Montana an unheard of number of times for a presidential candidate. His ads are running day and night - eclipsing anything from McCain. Obama’s canvasasers are very active, organized. ****, I’ve already voted, I wish they’d stop calling.

I’m not sure how many of my neighbors will vote for Obama. Race is likely a factor. Except for Native-Americans, there aren’t many ethnic minorities in Montana. Racial prejudice is pretty widespread. Many Republicans may just stay home.

19. Political Eye | 11.03.08

It is funny that many Idiots cling to the pernicious rumors about OBAMA even though it has been debunked again and again. Perhaps its resistance to change or just latent racism.
As far as eligibility of John McCain to the president of US, it is a bit of a grey area due to the fact that he was born in Panama. However the senate passed a resolution this year declaring him a “Natural Born” citizen of US -
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=sr110-511

One more point - being native born montanan does not mean you stop thinking and blindly vote the Republican nominee. Speaking as a conservative I can tell you that Republican party does not stand for the conservative ideals anymore.

20. Born In Kenya? Ignorant! | 11.03.08

I love the republican fear gimmick of Obama not being a Natural born citizen.

If Barack was born in Kenya, was his white mother on a vacation trip over there, got knocked up, and decided to live there and use one of their hospitals? Or wait, maybe she got knocked up in Hawaii or wherever, then decided to jump on a plane to Kenya to give birth. Wow, you people really are ignorant….hahahha

OBAMA/ BIDEN 08

21. mavisdarling | 11.03.08

I’m a fourth generation Montana cowgirl, and I spent my evening last night volunteering at Obama headquarters in my little town, making phone calls. There are some BIG pockets of Democratic voters out here, especially in places like Butte and Missoula.

Our governor showed up at my son’s high school last week, and my son and Brian had a conversation about their horses. The kids LOVE him! And while he may be “folksy”, this is what his website has to say about him:

“The grandson of Montana homesteaders, Brian grew up on his folks’ cattle ranch in the Judith Basin. Governor Schweitzer went on to earn a Bachelor of Science degree in international agronomy from Colorado State University, and later earned a Master of Science degree in soil science from Montana State University.

He worked overseas on agricultural projects and has visited 37 countries across the world. Governor Schweitzer oversaw the building of major irrigation projects and the construction of the world’s largest dairy farm in Saudi Arabia.”

He is just a WEE bit smarter than Sarah Palin. Okay, make that a LOT smarter than Sarah Palin.

Along with Schweitzer, BOTH our Democratic senators have been endorsed by the National Rifle Association with ‘A’ ratings, too!

And while we do have some oldsters who are somewhat racist, it’s really not as bad as you might imagine. We have had white supremacist groups try to set up shop out here and they’ve been escorted to edge of town at sundown and told to LEAVE and never come back. We don’t tolerate HATE out here…. we respect individual freedoms. YEE HAW, is right!

22. Steve | 11.03.08

I hope my hero Ron Paul steals votes away from McCain and causes Obama to win. Ron Paul was not invited to the Republican National Convention, in fact his supporters were banned. So screw the Republicans now.

Im a Republican voting ALL DEMOCRAT

23. mavisdarling | 11.03.08

Oh, and Montana elected the VERY first woman to Congress, back in 1916. Jeannette Rankin. That was before women nationwide had the right to vote and many women were still getting thrown in jail for fighting for suffrage. Not Montana. We had already granted women the right to vote, and ELECTED one!!

Unfortunately, we had a bad bout with a female governor on the last go-round before Brian. She was sorta like Sarah in the Stupidity Category, and she was a Republican too. But we voted her out and voted Brian IN. Thank goodness.

24. Another Montanan | 11.03.08

Honestly, I realize that it would come as a surprise to most people that Montana could go blue, but in the last election, before the votes from the Eastern part of the state came in, Montana was leaning toward Kerry. Most of Montana’s more populated counties have more Democrats than Republicans.

25. Stonecipher | 11.03.08

Another good piece on the potential for Montana to turn blue:

http://stonecipher.typepad.com/the_stonecipher_report/2008/11/will-obama-turn-montana-blue.html

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