In doing so, Maine joins the growing ranks of states – now 31 in all – that have rejected gay marriage at the ballot box. No state has ever voted to legalize gay marriage. Gay marriage was passed by the legislature or mandated by courts in the five states where it is legal: New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Iowa.

The Maine vote is a devastating defeat to the gay-rights movement, which poured millions of dollars and sent hundreds of volunteers to Maine. Their goal was to persuade Maine voters to uphold the law that Democratic Gov. John Baldacci signed in May.

The result will send a clear message to other state legislatures considering bills to legalize gay marriage, says Brian Brown, executive director of the New Jersey-based National Organization for Marriage, which contributed $1.8 million to the Maine campaign against the state law.

The victory is especially important to same-sex marriage opponents nationally, he says, because Maine is considered a relatively liberal state in New England – where the gay-rights movement has already gained a strong foothold.

Gay marriage opponents jubilant

Yet on Wednesday morning, with 87 percent of precincts reporting, 53 percent of Maine voters decided to reject the state’s gay-marriage law, the Associated Press reports.

“The institution of marriage has been preserved in Maine and across this nation,” Frank Schubert told the supporters of the Stand for Marriage campaign, an anti-gay marriage group, at their victory celebration early Wednesday morning, according to the Portland Press-Herald.

Mr. Schubert, a California consultant, came to Maine to work on the campaign against gay marriage after helping overturn the same-sex marriage law in California at the polls last year.

Gay-rights advocates attempted to frame the issue in Maine as a question of equality for all families regardless of sexual orientation. Opponents argued the law would change how marriage was taught in schools.

The role of religion

It also became a religious issue. The Catholic Church was heavily involved in the veto effort at the polls, as were Christian groups from around the country. While research suggests Maine is one of the least religious states in the US, analysts say the religious argument held sway with voters.

The vote was confirmation that the voting public is still uneasy with expanding marriage laws to include gay and lesbian couples.

Many gay-rights groups have long opposed putting the same-sex marriage question – which they consider a civil rights issue – to a popular vote. In California, these groups are closely watching a challenge in federal court to Proposition 8, the voter-approved ballot initiative that banned gay marriage there. The plaintiffs in the case say the California ban is a violation of the Constitution’s equal protection clause. Many expect that case to eventually make its way to the US Supreme Court in ruling that could decide the issue of gay marriage for the country.

What happened in Washington State?

While Maine was a setback for the gay-rights movement, Washington State voted Tuesday to give gay and lesbian domestic partners all the same rights as married couples. While the measure there stopped short of legalizing same-sex marriage, many see it as important step for gay rights as it extends the state’s legal protections for same-sex couples.

The results in Maine may spur the gay-rights movement to turn away from battles at the state level and focus more on the courts or repealing the federal Defense of Marriage Act, which is also being challenged in court.

“We’re here for the long haul,” Jesse Connolly, campaign manager for Protect Maine Equality, told supporters of Maine’s gay marriage law, according to the Associated Press. “We’ll be here fighting. We’ll be working. We will regroup.”

See also:

At stake in Maine vote: a potential first for gay marriage

Gay rights advocates win a round on California’s Prop. 8

Gay marriage foe announces its next big target: Iowa

Obama ’supports repeal’ of same-sex marriage ban, lawyers say

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So what were the mayoral election results?

Incumbents held their seats in major cities including Boston, New York, and Detroit – but their margins of victory were slimmer than usual.

New York stays with Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg: 51 percent
William Thompson: 46 percent

Mr. Bloomberg was successful in his bid for a third term as the mayor of the Big Apple, but the contest was surprisingly close.

Bloomberg squeaked out a victory over Mr. Thompson, city comptroller, by only five percentage points.

“Some told me to sit this one out,” Thompson said in his concession speech. “This campaign was about defying conventional wisdom. This campaign was [about] never backing down in the face of a formidable challenge.”

Detroit returns Bing

Dave Bing: 58 percent
Tom Barrow: 42 percent

Mr. Bing, a businessman and former NBA great, held onto the seat he won in a special election in May, when he replaced former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who resigned fraught with legal problems. Bing won a decisive 16-point victory over Mr. Barrow, an accountant.

Boston grants Menino unprecedented fifth term

Thomas Menino: 57 percent
Michael Flaherty: 42 percent

It was Mayor Menino’s toughest election yet, but he defeated Mr. Flaherty, a city councilor at large, by 15 percentage points. In November 2005, Menino won his bid for a fourth term with 68 percent of the vote.

Atlanta is headed for a runoff

Mary Norwood: 46 percent
Kasim Reed: 36 percent
Lisa Borders: 15 percent

This was an open election because the current mayor, Shirley Franklin, was term-limited. None of the top three candidates received enough votes to avoid a runoff election. Ms. Norwood, a city councilor and the favorite heading into Election Day, received the largest share of the vote, with 46 percent. Next month her opponent will be state Sen. Mr. Reed, who received 36 percent of the vote Tuesday. (For more on the Atlanta race, click here.)

Houston is also headed for a runoff

Annise Parker: 31 percent
Gene Locke: 25 percent
Peter Brown: 23 percent

The mayor’s race in Houston won’t be decided until next month’s runoff election, as was expected even before Tuesday’s vote. What’s surprising is that Mr. Locke, a former city attorney – and not Mr. Brown, an architect – will be on the ballot, along with the top vote-getter, Ms. Parker.

Parker, the city controller and an openly gay candidate, was the favorite heading into Election Day. Brown, a largely self-financed candidate, was thought to be No. 2.

Houston had an open race because the current mayor, Bill White, could not run again due to term limits.

Seattle race is too close to call

Mike McGinn: 50.5 percent
Joe Mallahan: 49.5 percent

Seattle’s mayor, Greg Nickels, didn’t make it out of August’s primary. That left two first-time candidates – both Democrats, whose primary difference was how they felt about a major road-works project slated for Seattle’s downtown area. Mr. McGinn, an environmental attorney, is currently leading Mr. Mallahan, an executive at T-Mobile, by only one percentage point – just under a 1,000 votes. About 125,000 ballots remain to be counted. The race is expected to be called in the coming days.

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Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and Republican presidential candidate in 2008, says there’s room in the party even for people like Dede Scozzafava, the liberal Republican who was effectively run out of her House race in New York’s 23rd District by conservatives. The Democrat ended up beating the Conservative candidate there.

“Oh, I think it’s fine to have them in the Republican Party,” Mr. Huckabee told reporters Wednesday at a Monitor breakfast. “It doesn’t mean I have to support all of them equally.”

“The tent could be big, but it shouldn’t have holes in the ceiling and let the rain come through,” he continued. “What we have to be careful of is, we don’t have a party that says, it has to be just like me and nothing but. Can there be people who don’t have my view on the sanctity of life in the Republican Party? Of course. People who have a different view of marriage than I do? Sure they can.

“Can they be Republican? Yes. Will they get my support? No.”

Ms. Scozzafava, a state assemblywoman who was selected by local party chairs as the Republican nominee, supports abortion rights and gay marriage and enjoyed union backing in the campaign. Unlike many other nationally known conservatives, Huckabee did not declare a preference in the race, he said, as a courtesy to conservatives in Syracuse, where he was giving a talk. He endorsed the Conservative, Doug Hoffman, after Scozzafava dropped out.

“I thought the process by which she was selected was in fact the train wreck,” he said. “It was truly boneheaded to pick someone who had ACORN/union backing, was pro-abortion, pro-same-sex marriage, pro-Obama healthcare. There were just so many things that she was just at odds not just with the mainstream of the party, but she was more liberal than most of the Democrats in Congress.”

Still, Huckabee is against third-party candidates. More often than not, he says, they end up throwing the race to the candidate voters like least. He was surprised that Republican Chris Christie defeated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in New Jersey, despite the presence of an independent candidate in the race.

“I continually remind people, if you really don’t like what either of the parties are doing – and there are a lot of people who don’t – pick one that you like a little more than you like the other, that you hate the least, get involved in it, and change it,” Huckabee said.

In Florida, a hot GOP primary race is developing for the US Senate between moderate former Gov. Charlie Crist and conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. Huckabee is backing Mr. Rubio, who is Cuban American. “He’s the face and future of the Republican Party,” Huckabee says.

Huckabee called the primary process healthy. “It helps us sort out who we are,” he says.

Since his presidential campaign, which caught fire for a while – he won the Iowa caucuses – Huckabee has been a weekend talk show host on Fox, on the lecture circuit, and writing. He came to the breakfast to hawk his new book, “A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories that Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.”

But as he prepares to embark on a 64-city tour to promote the book, which he calls nonpolitical, isn’t it possible that he’s setting the stage for another presidential run in 2012? “That’s really not the case,” he said, adding that he won’t focus on his political future until 2010 is over. “It’s ridiculous to speculate about 2012 now.”

In the meantime, he’s happy to share his political views. He was thrilled by the result of Tuesday’s referendum in Maine, which overturned a state law legalizing same-sex marriage.

“It just goes to show that even in a very, very liberal state like Maine, where the governor himself and the legislature came out and supported it, when the people have the chance to affirm traditional marriage, they do it,” Huckabee says. “Thirty-one out of 31 states. It’s a batting average there that has no equal.”

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See also:

Election results hearten Republicans, deal blow to Obama

Atlanta mayor’s election and race in politics: murky results

For gay marriage, difficult terrain ahead

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If anything, Atlanta voters seemed hesitant to say much of anything about the mayoral field, which included a black man, a black woman, and a white woman, as only 24 percent of them came out to cast ballots in the off-year municipal election.

Some analysts has said the potential election of front-runner Mary Norwood as the city’s first white mayor in 36 years would prove that America is undergoing a generational shift toward colorblind politics. Others saw the struggle for traction by African-American “card carrying Democrats” in a liberal, majority-black city as a sign that Mr. Obama’s coattails have proven woefully short.

Conclusions will have to wait until next month. In a Dec. 1 runoff contest, City Councilor Norwood will face off against Kasim Reed, a state senator with ties to hip-hop artists and the city’s civil rights old guard.

The low turnout and indecisive result point in part to the fact that no superstar candidates were in the offing, unlike the case when 41 percent of the electorate ushered the city’s first female black mayor, Shirley Franklin, into office eight years ago.

The ultimate choice between a black man and a white woman seems to have cooled voters’ ardor in a city where a white influx in the past decade has changed the racial dynamics of the majority-black Southern metropolis.

“Now the two candidates have roughly a month to fight for every voter among an electorate that seems to be exhausted and mistrustful,” writes the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Cameron McWhirter. “And the ever-present issues of race, gender and class … likely will be amplified in coming weeks as the contest settles into one between a white woman and black man. Many Atlantans found the prospect unsettling.”

The poorest black neighborhoods on the West and Southwest sides saw dismal turnout, with one precinct receiving only 5 percent of eligible voters. Turnout was higher in Atlanta’s primarily white neighborhoods.

Pre-election polls indicated that about 30 percent of black voters intended to vote for Norwood. Between 52 and 70 percent of white voters intended to vote for Norwood, depending on which poll is cited.

In the end, Norwood received 46 percent of the vote and Senator Reed 36 percent. Both candidates will aggressively go after those who voted for third-place finisher Lisa Borders, who received 14 percent.

Reed, who counts as fans the rapper Ludacris and much of Atlanta’s civil rights power base, did capture much of the vote on the largely black Southwest side. But Norwood, a former radio executive and neighborhood booster, made surprisingly deep inroads into the black community, and she is viewed by many as a gung-ho proponent of rich and poor neighborhoods alike.

A milestone came in August, when a memo penned by two Clark Atlanta University professors brought race into the campaign by pointing out the importance of keeping blacks in control of City Hall.

While the candidates disavowed the memo – Ms. Borders, the city council president, notably said, “The color of skin of our next mayor is not the issue” – it still marked a turning point in the campaign.

The racial dynamics are likely to intensify now. Indeed, racial rhetoric has dominated Atlanta runoffs going back to 1973, when Maynard Jackson became the city’s first black mayor five years after Martin Luther King Jr. – Atlanta’s favorite son – was assassinated in Memphis, Tenn.

By running ads depicting Norwood as a Republican in disguise, Reed has already used coded references to race. Norwood has also subtly “racialized” the campaign, using, for example, obviously black voices in radio ads, says Oglethorpe University Prof. Kendra King.

“By running this attack on Norwood as being a Republican who would set the city back, [Reed] is … speaking directly to the idea that this candidate may be a danger to the city and to black interests,” says Michael Leo Owens, a political scientist at Emory University here.

The strategy may well be effective, adds Mr. Owens. “The black political elite don’t want to be associated with … running to keep a white mayor out. But in a runoff, the [likelihood] of Atlanta deciding to extend the legacy of electing black mayors will probably play out.”

In a pre-dawn TV interview, Reed said the candidates “have run a high-road, high-minded campaign, and it’s going to be left to us to make sure we do not divide this city during this very important election.”

Asked about the prospect of being the first white mayor of Atlanta in a generation, Norwood said, “I have said all along that this is about uniting Atlanta. Dr. King said we should be evaluated by who we are, not what we looked like, and I have been so gratified that so many Atlantans across the city have decided that they can support me because of the work that I’ve done, because of how much I care about all communities in this city.”

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See also: 2009 election results hearten GOP, deal blow to Obama

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Though most voters in both states said in exit polls the election was not a referendum on the Democratic president, the result sends a warning to moderate Democrats nationwide concerned about their reelection chances next year. That could deal a blow to Mr. Obama’s ambitious agenda, foremost healthcare reform and energy legislation, amid continuing high unemployment.

In one bright spot for Democrats, the party’s candidate won the special election for the House seat in New York’s 23rd district – a takeover of a historically Republican seat. It was a wild contest, marked by dissension within the national GOP, as conservatives effectively drove the Republican nominee out of the race for not being conservative enough.

In the long run, Democrats might actually have preferred that the Conservative candidate win, as it would have emboldened conservatives nationally to take on moderate Republicans in districts and states where the moderate may be a better fit. But for the short term, the victory of Democrat Bill Owens in NY-23 provided the one bright spot in a gloomy night for the party.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s unexpectedly narrow win for reelection to a third term, in which he spent $100 million of his own money, highlighted another theme of the evening: It was a bad night for incumbents. That warning shot, just a year after Obama won on a promise of change that favored Democratic candidates, puts incumbent candidates of both parties on notice for next year. But Democrats, who currently enjoy big majorities in the House and Senate, have more to lose.

The GOP sweep of statewide races in Virginia, in which the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general all went to Republicans, marked a sharp turn from a year ago. Then, Barack Obama put the state in the Democratic column for the first time in a presidential race since 1964. On Tuesday, Republican Bob McDonnell beat Democrat Creigh Deeds by a whopping 18 percentage points, returning the state to GOP control for the first time in eight years. The Republicans also picked up seats in the state legislature.

In New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine lost his bid for reelection against Republican Chris Christie, in a heavily Democratic state. Mr. Christie, a former US attorney, won with a plurality 49 percent of the vote, versus 45 percent for Governor Corzine and 6 percent for independent Chris Daggett. Voters in that race told exit pollsters that the economy and jobs were the No. 1 issue, followed by high property taxes. But in a sign that Mr. Christie has his work cut out for him, a majority of voters said they did not believe any of the three candidates had a workable plan to lower property taxes. New Jersey has the highest property taxes in the country.

In general, the economic anxieties of New Jersey and Virginia voters showed Obama and the Democrats that they could face a stiff headwind next November. Though important indicators show an economy on the mend, unemployment approaching 10 percent – and likely to get worse before it gets better – dominates public consciousness.

“Vast economic discontent marked the mood of Tuesday’s off-year voters, portending potential trouble for incumbents generally and Democrats in particular in 2010,” wrote ABC News pollster Gary Langer in an exit poll analysis. “Still, the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey looked less like a referendum on Barack Obama than a reflection of their own candidates and issues.”

In Virginia, 48 percent of voters said they approve of Obama’s job performance. In New Jersey, that number is 57 percent. Nationally, Obama’s job approval rating averages just above 50 percent in major polls.

But Obama’s personal popularity was not enough to carry either Democrat across the finish line in either state. In New Jersey, in particular, Obama put his own prestige on the line by making last-minute appearances with Corzine, to no avail. In Virginia, Mr. Deeds distanced himself from Obama at times, which dampened enthusiasm among voters who had flooded polling places a year ago to support Obama. Most tellingly, Deeds lost even in suburban Fairfax County, an increasingly Democratic stronghold. Deeds was generally seen as a weak candidate, who failed to articulate a clear, positive message for himself. McDonnell, in contrast, was well-spoken and disciplined, and did not allow the surfacing of his 20-year-old master’s thesis laying out ultraconservative social views to distract from his core economic message.

McDonnell effectively put to rest concerns about his views on women, by running TV ads featuring women who have worked for him over the years speaking positively about him. He also highlighted one of his daughters, who was a platoon leader in Iraq. In his master’s thesis, he said women who work outside the home harm families. He also laid out conservative views on abortion and birth control, but did not highlight his social positions in the campaign.

Already, analysts are touting McDonnell’s campaign style, demeanor, and message as a winning model for Republican candidates. In a party desperate for appealing, fresh faces who could play well on the national stage, McDonnell is a figure to watch. If he succeeds as governor in what is now a swing state, watch for Republicans to start mentioning him as possible presidential material – not in 2012, when he will be finishing his term, but in 2016. Virginia governors are allowed to serve only one term.

—-

Who is shaping the new GOP?

The most fertile terrain for Republicans is the burgeoning ranks of independents.

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Rep. Bart Stupak (D) of Michigan is leading the charge among anti-abortion Democrats, who want to amend the bill to strengthen its prohibitions against the use of federal funds for abortions.

Congressman Stupak has said he has 40 Democratic votes in his camp, just enough to keep the bill from reaching the minimum 218 votes needed for a majority. He has not released all the names, but some have appeared in letters to Speaker Nancy Pelosi asking for consideration of an anti-abortion amendment to the legislation.

In a statement released by the congressman’s office Tuesday afternoon, Stupak said: “I have had some serious conversations over the past few days with the White House and House leadership and I will continue to make every attempt to resolve the issue of public funding for abortion. However, there is no agreement and I will oppose bringing the bill to the floor until an amendment can be offered or language agreed to that will prevent public funding for abortion.”

Stupak is in Michigan this week, following the death of his mother-in-law over the weekend, a development that could complicate negotiations. But his press secretary, Michelle Begnoche, says he is “still keeping an eye on things” and “having conversations” from Michigan.

Currently, a federal law known as the Hyde Amendment already prevents the federal funding of abortion. In the drafting of health reform legislation, members of Congress worked to keep the reform “abortion neutral.”

In what is known as the Capps Amendment, named for its author, Rep. Lois Capps (D) of California, the reform would allow private healthcare plans included in a new insurance marketplace to cover abortion, as long as the funds were segregated. In other words, an individual’s private funds would be used for abortion coverage, not federal monies.

Abortion opponents call the Capps provision meaningless. In an opinion piece in USA Today published Nov. 2, Stupak says it departs from the Hyde Amendment in “important and troubling ways.” For example, he says, individuals who receive “affordability credits to purchase health insurance would have the option of purchasing a plan with public money that covers abortion.”

Advocates of abortion rights argue that the Capps Amendment’s provision that separates public from private funds succeeds in keeping the legislation “abortion neutral.” Keeping funds separate is a technique already used by the government, for example, in grants to faith-based institutions. In another example, federal Medicaid funds and state matching funds may not be used for abortion, but states have the option of providing supplemental abortion coverage.

“The fundamental issue here is, we are trying to make sure abortion coverage that women presently have is not lost,” says Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America.

She says she believes Mr. Stupak’s ultimate goal is an “outright ban” on abortion services in insurance plans included in the new marketplace, or “exchange.” Currently, about 85 percent of private insurance plans cover abortion, NARAL says.

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For a city that has not had a white mayor since 1973 and sees itself as the iconic post-civil rights epicenter of African-American politics, the campaign has been a shock to the system.

To some observers, it suggests that Ms. Norwood simply has used the levers of racial politics more effectively than her five African-American opponents. To others, though, it points to a generational shift toward political color-blindness – most prominently seen in last year’s presidential election but now influencing voters even in this bastion of the Deep South.

“It’s disturbing to some that you would have this change in a city where African-Americans have had a hold for over three decades – and it goes beyond politics,” says Earl Ofari Hutchinson, author of “How Obama Won.” “But the question we come back to is this: With the election of President Obama, how much does race really matter anymore in terms of politics? We’ve had a breakthrough at the national level, and now we’re beginning to see it in municipal elections.”

What has happened?

Many younger African-American voters don’t feel less allegiance to black candidates than did African-Americans who lived through the Civil Rights era, some experts say.

“There’s no longer any such thing as incumbency advantage or shoo-in candidate in Atlanta,” says Kendra King, a political science professor at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta.

The choice of campaign issues has also been key.

For Lisa Borders and Kasim Reed, the two black candidates who were trailing Norwood in preelection polls, the primary focus has been bolstering the city’s gutted police department. While violent crime is down overall in the city, a few high profile murders and a rise in property crimes means residents are agitated.

But Norwood has built her campaign around the recession, focusing on mismanaged city finances and how foreclosures are blighting the city.

“There’s no money to do big, grand and bold,” says Michael Leo Owens, a political scientist at Emory University. “Norwood has tied her candidacy to economic worries where people are looking up and down the federalist ladder and having nightmares about what their future taxes are going to look like. She’s saying, ‘Vote for me and have one less nightmare, because I’m going to keep a hold on local taxes.’ ”

Race still an issue

Still, race is a factor.

For one, Atlanta is becoming more white. Many blacks have fled the city’s aging neighborhoods, and white families are moving in, attracted by historic housing stock and closer proximity to jobs. In 2000, Atlanta was 33 percent white. In 2007, it was 38 percent white. Between 2000 and 2006, Atlanta’s white population grew faster than that of any other US city, according to a study by the Brookings Institution.

Yet black voters remain the dominant political constituency, and efforts to win their allegiance have been, at times, transparent.

Mr. Reed last week insinuated that Norwood is secretly a Republican – a dig aimed to disquiet African-American voters, who are primarily Democratic here. (Norwood replied in an ad that she voted for Mr. Obama in the last election.)

And in August, two Clark Atlanta University political science professors wrote a memo about the need for black Atlantans to hold onto City Hall, and how they should do that.

The “black agenda” memo turned out to be a coup for Ms. Norwood. Both Mr. Reed and Ms. Borders denounced the memo as racist and divisive, but never addressed its merits.

In the meantime, Norwood stayed above the fray while making several moves to appeal to black votes: using the voices of people who are obviously black in her radio ads, setting her campaign office in the former office of Martin Luther King’s old office building, and visiting closed fire stations in poor, black parts of the city.

“Mary Norwood has effectively racialized the campaign while simultaneously causing two African-Americans to run a de-racialized campaign, which has hurt them,” says Ms. King. “Norwood ran the most politically savvy and strategic campaign to African-American voters.”

Six-way election

With six candidates in Tuesday’s election, a runoff is likely, which could be problematic for Norwood. Her polling numbers have surged close to 50 percent in recent days, putting an outright win within her grasp. But Norwood could struggle in a run-off against Mr. Reed, who has won the endorsement of several members of Atlanta’s old civil rights guard as well as popular entertainers like the rapper Ludacris.

Yet the 2009 Atlanta mayoral race has redefined expectations and perceptions about politics in minority-majority cities, regardless of the outcome.

“This is not 1979, this is 2009,” says Mr. Hutchinson. “Instead of color, African-Americans are looking at: Are [candidates] honest on a personal and political level? Can they move political and economic interests to create a good employment base? Are they accountable and responsive to the African-American community? If those elements are there, they’re going to trump race.”

See also:

Was Atlanta’s ‘black mayor first’ memo racist – or just blunt?

Memo about a ‘black agenda’ in mayor’s race roils Atlanta

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Still, pollsters across the country are reporting high numbers of undecided voters, and turnout is expected to be low, typical of local races in off-election years.

New York

Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to be successful in his bid for a third term, but challenger Bill Thompson – the city’s first African-American comptroller – isn’t going too quietly. A new poll of likely voters released Monday by Quinnipiac University found Mr. Thompson had closed his deficit by six percentage points from the previous week prior.

Still, polls show 50 percent of likely voters say they’ll vote for Mr. Bloomberg, compared with Mr. Thompson’s 38 percent. Ten percent of voters were undecided.

Bloomberg has spent an estimated $100 million from his own pocket, according to the New York Times – a record in personal campaign spending. By contrast, Thompson had only spent about $6 million.

Boston

Seeking an unprecedented fifth term, Boston Mayor Thomas Menino is operating a well-oiled campaign machine. Still, he’s facing some tough competition from City Councilor Michael Flaherty, who has joined forces with his closest rival coming out of September’s primary, Sam Yoon.

Mr. Menino has spent the most money ever in a Boston mayoral race – approximately $2 million at last count to Flaherty’s $1.3 million.

Like Bloomberg, Menino maintains a solid lead – and a 60 percent approval rating – but his numbers have been slipping in recent weeks. A poll by the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center in mid-October had Menino with 52 percent of registered voters, compared with Flaherty’s 32 percent. In May, Menino lead Flaherty 61 to 23 percent.

Houston

Candidates in Houston are struggling to differentiate themselves in a race that has been less about the issues and more about the candidates’ background and experience, according to Marc Campos, an independent political analyst.

“The conventional wisdom is that it will be [City Controller Annise] Parker and [City Councilman Peter] Brown in a runoff,” says Mr. Campos.

Early polls showed the openly-gay Parker with a slight lead over Brown. After spending about $2.4 million from his family’s fortune, Brown pulled ahead of Parker. But it seems unlikely that either candidate will receive enough of the vote to avoid a December runoff.

Atlanta

Going by recent polls, Atlanta may be poised to elect its first white mayor since 1974. Councilor-at-Large Mary Norwood is leading Lisa Borders, a former city council president, and Kasim Reed, a lawyer and former state legislator. All three have spent about the same amount – $1.6 million for Mr. Reed, $1.5 for Ms. Norwood, and $1.3 for Ms. Borders.

Detroit

Businessman and former professional basketball star Dave Bing has only been mayor of Detroit since May, when he won a special election to replace Kwame Kilpatrick, who resigned and subsequently served jail time for lying in a civil trial to cover up an affair with a staff member.

In his brief tenure, Mayor Bing has preached tough love to the ailing city, which is facing a steep budget deficit. Bing has said that layoffs may be needed to help balance the budget, a move his challenger Tom Barrow has criticized and which has cost Bing some union support.

Still, Bing seems posed to retain his post Tuesday, with a poll of likely voters choosing him over Mr. Barrow 46 to 24 percent, though a quarter of those polled remained undecided.

See also:

Economic woes challenge incumbent mayors 

Election Day 2009:  Five things to watch

Maine: A potential first for gay marriage

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Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) ended the morning today shuffling papers in silence at the head of an empty table, as Republican senators boycotted Day 1 of her panel’s markup of historic climate legislation.

“This is an opportunity. I ask my colleagues to show up. We’re going to be extremely patient. We’re going to be here. We’ll take some time to wait for our friends,” said Chairwoman Boxer, at the end of the aborted morning session of the Environment and Public Works Committee.

But if Republicans prolong the boycott, she hinted that Democrats, with a five-seat majority on the panel, are prepared to go on without them. “We’re not going to be deterred. We’ll do our work. It’s our job. We’re going to follow the committee rules to the letter,” she said.

That rule allows the committee chairman to bypass the requirement that at least two members of the minority are needed to constitute a quorum. Republicans call it a “nuclear option” that will undermine committee traditions and put a bipartisan bill out of reach.

Partisan fireworks are exactly what Democratic leaders had hoped to avoid.

Last month, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina became the first Republican to endorse the Senate version of the climate bill. On Wednesday, he and Sen. John Kerry (D) of Massachusetts expect to meet with Obama administration officials to work out compromises in the Kerry-Boxer climate bill to expand bipartisan support.

Republicans are calling for a “full economic analysis” of the Kerry-Boxer bill, including the impact on jobs, consumers, ratepayers, families, and small businesses in various parts of the country.

“This bill will have an unprecedented impact on our national security, economy, environmental and energy needs. For that reason, members should have a full understanding of what this means for their states and constituents,” said Sen. George Voinovich (R) of Ohio, who read a statement outlining GOP reasons for the boycott at the top of Tuesday’s markup and then left.

In a speech to a joint session of Congress this morning, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Congress that there was “no time to lose” in the fight against global warming. “We need an agreement at the climate conference in December in Copenhagen,” she said. “That requires the readiness of all countries to accept binding international commitments.”

“I’m confident that bipartisan support will win the day,” said freshman Sen. Tom Udall (D) of New Mexico, after the speech. “Senators who believe that climate change is real will not abandon the debate for too long. The stakes are too high,” he added.

So far, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has produced a 38-page “discussion document” of Kerry-Boxer that Republicans say doesn’t resolve their concerns.

“Madam Chairman, Ohio can’t afford to lose any more jobs. So for the sake of workers in my state and elsewhere whose jobs are hanging in the balance, slow down, take a deep breath, let EPA do what it needs to do, and let’s come back in four to five weeks and have a markup,” Senator Voinovich said. “Otherwise, you will do great damage to the traditions of this committee and make it harder to reach a bipartisan compromise on climate change legislation.”

Boxer countered: “EPA has made it clear they stand behind the economic analysis and that it is more analysis than is typically provided before a markup.”

At the chair’s request, EPA officials were to appear Tuesday afternoon for a question and answer session with panel members on the bill. Republican senators say they expect to boycott this briefing, too.

“We don’t want another briefing. We want the analysis,” says a GOP aide.

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1. Who turns out

One year ago, Barack Obama won the presidency on a wave of support from young voters, minorities, and independents. A big question has been whether that enthusiasm was Obama-specific, or whether the Democrats would reap benefits in subsequent elections. So far, Democrats have cause for worry. In Virginia, which Mr. Obama turned blue in a presidential election for the first time since 1964, a Washington Post/ABC News poll showed last month that only 12 percent of likely voters are black, compared with 20 percent last November. Among young voters, the drop-off is worse: Eight percent of likely voters today are young, versus 21 percent a year ago.

In New Jersey, a solidly Democratic state with an unpopular Democratic governor, the same holds true: For Jon Corzine to win reelection, the Democratic base must turn out.

2. How will the results affect healthcare reform?

It depends. For nervous Democratic moderates in Congress, if the election ends in a wash – for example, the Republican wins the governor’s race in Virginia and the Democrat wins in New Jersey – then they can relax a bit.

“But if there’s a Republican sweep, then the task of getting a healthcare bill through becomes tougher,” says Norman Ornstein, a political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

In the midterm elections a year from now, the “inclination is to get a little distance from the president, a little insurance, to move against the grain,” Mr. Ornstein says. “That gets amplified if you have a mid-midterm that looks bad. It will not be as big a problem if there’s a split.”

3. The margin in California’s 10th congressional district

Everyone’s watching New York’s 23rd District, where the Republican was essentially run out of the race for not being conservative enough. Meanwhile, California-10, another open seat being filled in a special election Tuesday, has proceeded under the radar, as the Democrat was expected to win handily. But there are now signs that Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) may win by only a few percentage points.

If that happens, watch the national GOP kick itself for not putting more money into that race – and the Democrats worry that apparently safe seats in 2010 aren’t so safe.

4. How independent candidate Chris Daggett fares in New Jersey

Much has been made of the third-party candidate – Conservative Doug Hoffman – in NY-23. He’s now effectively the Republican in the race, after the actual Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out this past Saturday. But the New Jersey race also features an independent candidate, onetime moderate Republican Daggett, who could well swing the outcome of the race – probably toward Governor Corzine.

Typically, third-party candidates fade by Election Day, as some voters decide not to “waste” their vote or swing the race to a candidate they don’t like. But if Daggett holds onto a significant portion of voters, say, above 10 percent, that could embolden independents to run in next November’s elections.

5. The winning margin in NY-23

If Mr. Hoffman, the Conservative candidate, wins by a wide margin, that’s a bad sign for Democrats trying to hold onto seats in Republican-leaning districts that they won in the sweep elections of 2006 and 2008. If the race is close – or if the Democrat, Bill Owens, even wins – then Democrats can heave a sigh of relief (or celebrate, in the latter case). Democrats went into the contest with a decent shot at winning.

A year ago, Obama won this congressional district by 5 percentage points. And even though most of the territory in the district has been represented in Congress by Republicans since the 19th century, it is not viewed as hard-line conservative turf. The last person to hold the seat, newly minted Army Secretary John McHugh, is a moderate Republican.

If Hoffman does win the seat, one key question will be whether he fights to win earmarks for the district. Historically, this district – located in New York’s North Country, bordering on Canada – has relied on congressional largess to stay afloat economically. But earmarks go against the grain of fiscal conservatism. Hoffman will face a choice.

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See also:

Democrats fear triple blow on Election Day 

One year after his election: What has Obama achieved? 

The value of a Sarah Palin endorsement

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